A new poll suggests that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity has gained momentum following his country’s military advances against Hezbollah.
In recent days, the image of the moment in which Netanyahu ordered, from New York, the largest attack against Hezbollah, has been widely shared: the assassination of Hassan Nasrallahwho was head of the Lebanese armed group.
A poll by Israel’s Channel 12, which was released Sunday night, indicates that the prime minister’s party, Likud, would win more seats than anyone else if a general election were held today in Israel.
However, the consultation did not reveal an overall victory for Netanyahu. Rather, he suggested that opposition parties would have more parliamentarianswhich would allow them to form a coalition.
The latest poll gives the Likud up to 25 seats. In total, the poll indicates that the coalition parties would obtain 49, while the opposition parties would win 66.
According to Channel 12’s investigation, Netanyahu remains the favorite candidate for prime minister with 38% support against his rival, the leader of the centrist opposition, Yair Lapid, who has 27% support.
Alliance with the opposition
Fortunately for Netanyahu, his former political rival, Gideon Saar joined his divided coalition government on Sundaya step that should strengthen the prime minister.
“We will work together, shoulder to shoulder, and I intend to seek your help in the forums that influence the conduct of the war,” Netanyahu said.
Saar will serve as minister without portfolio and will occupy a position in the Security Cabinetthe body that oversees the management of the war against Israel’s regional enemies.
The alliance with this four-seat party offers Netanyahu a much stronger majority of 68 of the 120 seats in Parliament.
In recent weeks, rumors have circulated that the current defense minister, the popular and experienced former general Yoav Gallantwould be replaced by Saar, who has less experience.
However, that possibility was ruled out when Israel began a series of major attacks against Hezbollah.
Criticisms of the pact
For Netanyahu, the new composition of the government weakens the power of the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir.
The far-right has repeatedly threatened to destroy the coalition whether Netanyahu goes ahead with a “reckless” deal to end the war in Gaza and bring the hostages home, or whether he agrees to a permanent ceasefire with Hezbollah.
But now, the coalition could survive without the six seats provided by the Jewish Power party of Ben Gvir, which would give Netanyahu more room for maneuver.
Once seen as a rising Likud star, Saar left the party and became one of the prime minister’s staunchest critics.arguing that Netanyahu should not continue in office due to corruption allegations.
However, this time Saar justified his decision to join the government as an act of patriotism that encourages unity. Despite this, he has been harshly criticized by some Israeli commentators, who describe his decision as a cynical act that responds to their own interests.
“Saar’s decision to join the government is undoubtedly a painful blow for a large number of Israelis “They think Netanyahu should go, not only because he is on trial for criminal charges, but because he has been the most corrupt, hedonistic and lying prime minister Israel has ever had,” said columnist Sima Kadmon.
Kadmon warned that Saar’s decision “will stabilize and propel the worst government that has ever existed in Israel, to the point that the original date of the next elections, October 2026, now looks like a realistic date.”
military recruitment
Certainly, the additional seats could also help solve another challenge facing the government.
At this delicate time of war, when the army has a pressing need to expand its ranks, There are divided opinions regarding the approval of a new military recruitment law.
Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in June that the state must begin recruiting ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students, who have historically been exempt from joining the military.
However, two ultra-Orthodox parties on which the coalition depends are vehemently opposed to this measure.
In a decision that deepened his personal rift with the prime minister, Yoav Gallant in July approved a plan to begin sending recruitment notices to 1,000 young people between 18 and 26 years old from the ultra-Orthodox community.
Previous drop in the polls
Netanyahu, a skilled political strategist and Israel’s longest-serving leader, saw his party’s support plummet in polls late last year.
His personal image as “Mr. Security” was severely damaged after the attacks of October 7, 2023, the deadliest day in Israel’s historywhen Hamas captured 251 hostages and caused the death of some 1,200 people.
In this way, Hamas surprised one of the best intelligence services in the world and it took hours for the region’s best-resourced army to respond.
However, in August, opinion polls suggested that Netanyahu had begun to recover, despite the Gaza invasion It became the longest war in Israel’s history with no sign that its objectives: the destruction of Hamas and the release of the hostages, were being met.
Much of Israeli politics depends on what happens nowwhen the war on multiple fronts reaches a critical moment.
While Israel began a ground invasion of southern Lebanontens of thousands of Israeli citizens in the north of the country still do not know when they will return to their homes, an official goal for Israel.
Faced with attacks from Iran, Hezbollah’s main ally, the consequences are unpredictable.
Israel appears increasingly isolated on the world stage.
International courts are studying the possibility of judge Israel for genocide and issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his Defense Minister on accusations of crimes against humanity.
The ultimate test of Netanyahu’s resilience may still be yet to come.
- Iran launches ballistic missile attack on Israel
- Israel begins ground invasion in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah targets