Mexico and the United States have a relationship of irrefutable interdependence, which is why the challenges they face are complex in a scenario of respect for their sovereignty in problems that have been a constant in recent years: immigration, drug cartels, the free trade agreement. commerce, among others.
This Tuesday, October 1, Mexico takes a historic step with the rise of its first president, Claudia Sheinbaum, elected last June.
Although Sheinbaum will have a first relationship with the current government of President Joe Biden, it will be with the next US administration with which he faces the aforementioned challenges, whether with Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.
There are no significant changes expected in the last stage of the Biden Administration with the incoming Mexican government, but the issue of security and immigration could continue to stand out, being part of the US electoral debate.
Immigration
Immigration will continue to be a central issue in the relationship between Mexico and the United States, due to two situations: the arrival of citizens from various countries to the US border and the increase in Mexican migrants in the last year.
In a report from September of this year, the CEMLA Latin American and Caribbean Remittances Forum revealed that, during 2023, the Mexican immigrant population in the United States increased 3.26%, an increase that was surprising after declining rates since 2007 .
“The total population of Mexican origin (natives and immigrants) reached 37,991,500 people, 11.34% of the total population [en EE.UU.]”, indicates the report.
On the other hand, although the Biden Administration keeps encounters with immigrants at the border on the decline, after an executive order implemented in June, the US has had a record of encounters.
Between 2021 and 2024, it is estimated that there were more than eight million encounters with immigrants on the border with Mexico. These do not mean entry into the country, according to the organization, but they do require different immigration policies, according to a report from the Migration Policy Institute.
While Sheinbaum does not have a very clear policy on immigration, except an extension of her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Harris is ready to increase surveillance at the border, but with a vision that she considers “humane” on immigration, while Trump prepares to more wall by accusing an “invasion”.
drug cartels
The US records more than 100,000 overdose deaths annually. In 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), 107,941 deaths were recorded for this reason.
“Overdoses of synthetic opioids (fentanyl, for example) and stimulants (cocaine and methamphetamine, for example) have also increased in recent years,” indicates the most recent CDC report.
Both Harris and Trump have highlighted the influence of Mexican cartels in the importation of drugs to the US, but neither talks about distribution or how to confront it domestically.
The new president in Mexico will have to deal with a growing negative stance among Democrats on drug trafficking, although Trump’s vision remains more extreme, considering sending the military to the southern neighboring country to attack cartels.
With AMLO, Mexico pushed the fight against arms trafficking from the US, as well as asking for greater control against money laundering. The same issues remain a challenge for both countries.
T-MEC or USMCA and renegotiation
As established by the rules of the United States-Mexico-Canada Treaty (T-MEC or USMCA), the agreement can be reviewed in 2026. Vice President Harris announced that, if she won, she would apply that rule.
When she was a senator, Harris voted along with nine others against ending NAFTA and replacing it with USMCA, criticizing US worker regulations.
“I knew it was not enough to protect our country. Several who voted for this agreement conditioned their support on a review process, which, as president, I will implement,” Harris said of the review.
Trump has warned that he will impose a tax of up to 20% on products imported to the US, which anticipates a complicated scenario for Mexico in the renegotiation of the agreement.
Nearshoring
Within the framework of the T-MEC, Mexico would have the opportunity to advance its economic investment plan with the so-called nearshoring, in order to once again avoid the scenario of breakdown of supply chains that caused the COVID-19 pandemic.
During the campaign, Sheinbaum gave signals that he will maintain and strengthen support for the manufacturing sector and its relationship with the US, in addition to highlighting the importance of foreign investment and the relocation of production chains or ‘nearshoring’.
He has even indicated his interest in the economic plan allowing better working conditions, rights and housing for workers.
There are no signs that Harris will deviate from Biden’s policies on this matter, but Trump’s plans to increase tariffs even up to 200 percent on cars manufactured by Chinese companies in Mexico is a challenge for Sheinbaum.
Leadership in Latin America
Biden boasted an important rapprochement with Latin America and even resumed the Summit of the Americas organized in Los Angeles, California in 2022.
The Los Angeles Declaration, focused on immigration and development, has led to consequential actions by the US, such as the recent investment announcement of almost $700 million dollars.
Mexico is a leading country in Latin America and, as the United States’ main trading partner, has an important influence, although it has received criticism for trying to distance itself from regional problems of great interest to Americans, such as the conflicts in Venezuela.
With AMLO, a policy of “non-interventionism” was imposed, although there was expressed opinion on several issues, including the recent election in Venezuela. Sheinbaum has advocated defending the sovereignty of countries and his foreign policy will be a challenge, which will be led by the former Mexican ambassador to the UN, Juan Ramón de la Fuente.
Keep reading:
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