“I am going to retire with a clear conscience and very happy,” said the Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
And among their reasons for satisfaction are a reduction in poverty of almost ten points, the stability of the economy, the construction of large infrastructure works such as the Mayan Train and the proliferation of scholarships, credits and subsidies for the poorest Mexicans.
This October 1, AMLO will hand over the baton of command to his ally and friend Claudia Sheinbaum: another reason, he says, “to be happy.”
He will do so after multiple farewells that have evidenced his enormous popularity, which is close to 70% approval, and the meager self-criticism he makes of his six-year term.
“There is no doubt that we advanced in the revolution of consciousness and the foundations were laid to consolidate the new policy called Mexican humanism, which in essence is recognizing and serving those below,” said AMLO in his last accountability report, on December 1. September.
“But, even with how much has been achieved, the backwardness that we suffer from the long and stormy period in which the government was in the hands of insensitive oligarchs is still notable,” he added.
Although he did not delve into what he calls the “pending issues,” it is clear that there are some, not only because Mexico is still a violent and unequal country, but because the main banner of the Obrador movement—a policy free of corruption and clientelism—is yet to be resolved. .
BBC Mundo compared the data and consulted a dozen analysts of Mexican politics in search of the major pending problems in Mexico.
Although there are others that are left out, such as the resolution of the Ayotzinapa case – an unpunished “state crime” for which ten years ago 43 students disappeared and 3 were murdered – and corruption, these are the three pending issues for AMLO that the more consensus they generate.
1. Reduce violence
In the weeks before the presidential transition, Mexico experienced a new crisis of violence, especially in the northwest, where two factions of the Sinaloa Cartel They fight for the power vacuum left by the arrest of ‘El Mayo’ Zambadaa prominent drug trafficker.
AMLO says that during his six-year term homicides decreased by 18%, robberies by 30% and kidnappings by 77%.
To combat crime, his government replaced the federal police with a National Guard, under the control of the Army, to purge elements of corruption, and in its last month it reformed the Judiciary to try to end impunity.
“Now the people are not repressed, massacres are not carried out, no one is tortured, no one is disappeared, the violation of human rights is not tolerated and there is no narco-state like the one that was created in the previous six-year term,” said AMLO. a month ago
At its core, its quest was to end violence through social programs for those who are theoretically in danger of being recruited into crime.
In his speech, the president highlighted that the perception of insecurity fell 15%.
But, although it has decreased, between 50 and 70% of Mexicans still say in surveys that they feel insecure. And crimes of extortion and domestic violence have skyrocketed.
Security figures were a main issue of contention in this six-year term because, with the same official data, some see a reduction and others an increase in violence, depending on the period analyzed or the types of crime that are contemplated.
In 2023, for example, 30,523 homicides were reported, slightly less than previous years. But having the number of homicides around 30,000 each year, which is also what is estimated for 2024, made this six-year period the most violent in recent history.
Security went from being a matter of facts to one of statistics. But Mexico, according to several national and international studies, remains one of the most dangerous countries in the world.
“We still do not have a security model that works,” says Salvador Camarena, columnist and journalist. “The State left some areas abandoned and we are still waiting for the model they promised.”
Carlos Pérez Ricardt, professor and political scientist, adds: “What cost him the most at the end of his mandate was failing to demonstrate that social policy is sufficient to reduce crime”.
Sheinbaum, the new president, wants to apply some of the strategies that served in her mayoralty of Mexico City (2018-2023), including high camera and monitoring technologies, coordination between entities and better crime reporting and investigation processes.
2. A better health system
Health is another controversial issue because AMLO takes it to heart, he made several reforms with ambiguous results and the scientific community has had to enter the political debate.
“I said it was going to be the best, that it was going to be like in Denmark. (But) No, it is not like in Denmark, it is better than in Denmark,” said the president.
AMLO wanted to reform a fragmented, unequal and absent system for the majority with three key measures: centralizing the system, creating insurance for the poorest and returning to monopolize the purchase of medicines in the State.
But, between the pandemic and what for many was a poorly designed plan, the reforms were left pending. “The reforms were necessary, but in the end a six-year term in health was lost because there was no implementation plan“says Andrés Castañeda, public health expert.
And the figures are, again, a thorny issue. AMLO cites the increase in clinics and doctors and the reduction of prices in the public system for the uninsured. However, data from Coneval, a state think tank, report that health poverty increased from 16% in 2018 to 39% in 2022.
Mexicans are still among the populations that spend the most on health, but their State is still one of those that invests the least in the sector, compared to Latin American countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
In addition, Mexico has one of the highest rates of potentially avoidable premature mortality in the world and one of the highest rates of catastrophic spending—families that must spend 30% of their assets on health—in the region.
“Andrés Manuel began his health management by cutting corruption in the purchase of medicines and then reformed the public health system twice to correct past errors; We still need to see the results of this second reform, the current data does not allow us to declare victory”says Vanessa Romero Rocha, lawyer and political analyst.
There are those who believe that the profound health reforms have yet to demonstrate their benefits. Others think the damage is irreparable.
In any case, Sheinbaum has promised to continue with the path set by his predecessor: consolidate the reform of the public health system and increase the number of clinics in remote areas in order to prevent chronic diseases.
3. Promote the energy transition
Five of AMLO’s 100 commitments when he came to power were related to the environment: plant millions of trees, promote sustainable energy sources, restrict the use of genetically modified seeds, ban fracking and reduce the environmental impact of tourism development.
Although progress was made on the issue of seeds and mining licenses were not granted, in the environmental sector there is consensus that “6 years were lost”, not only because most of these promises were not fulfilled, but because the government promoted projects with enormous environmental impact.
Among the most cited are the construction of the Mayan Trainwhich meant the felling of seven million trees, the increase in oil production and the remodeling and construction of refineries throughout the country.
“A current of opinion has emerged against oil and other fossil energies (…) but we must calculate the times well,” AMLO said in March.
Sheinbaum, who as a scientist dedicated her career to the study of polluting energies, has said she is “committed to reducing emissions that cause climate change and protecting the environment”.
And he has cited as an example what he did in CDMX: he promoted the construction of recycling and solar energy plants, expanded the bicycle transportation system and restored rivers and lakes, which achieved the reduction of more than two million tons of carbon dioxide per year.
The question, as in almost all areas in which he is compared to his predecessor, is whether he will now be able to do so on a national scale.
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