Many hardline conservatives in Iran are increasingly disturbed by their lack of action as Israel attacks the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, their country’s closest and oldest ally.
When President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, he criticized Israel’s war in Gaza and warned that its attacks on Lebanon could not go unanswered.
But Pezeshkian, elected in July, adopted a more conciliatory tone than his hardline predecessors, avoiding rhetoric about annihilating the Islamic Republic’s archenemy.
“We seek peace for all and we have no intention of entering into conflict with any country”he declared.
Furthermore, he expressed his government’s willingness to resume nuclear talks with Western powers: “We are willing to dialogue with the participants in the 2015 nuclear agreement.”
Other senior Iranian officials and commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have also appeared to be unusually restrained when expressing his intentions to take revenge on Israel for its actions against his country and its key allies Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iran has armed, financed and trained both armed groups, but leaders in Tehran rely on Hezbollah to be an important deterrent to prevent direct Israeli attacks on their country.
Iranian support has been fundamental for the transformation of Hezbollah in Lebanon’s armed force and most powerful political actor since the group was founded in the 1980s.
It is the main supplier of the weapons Hezbollah can deploy against Israel, particularly advanced missiles and drones, and the United States has alleged in the past that it also provides up to $700 million annually in funding.
Found positions
Last week, Mojtaba Amani, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, was seriously injured when his beeper at the Beirut embassy.
Thousands of pagers and walkie talkies used by members of Hezbollah also exploded in two attacks in which a total of 39 people died.
Iran blamed Israel, but He did not publicly threaten retaliation.
By contrast, when Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, killing eight senior Quds Force commanders, Iran quickly responded by launching hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel.
Iran also vowed to retaliate after blaming Israel for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran in late July, although it has yet to announce any action.
A former Revolutionary Guard commander told the BBC that repeatedly threatening Israel without delivering on promises was further damaging the force’s credibility among its supporters inside Iran and its proxies abroad.
On Monday, President Pezeshkian told US media in New York that Israel intended to drag Iran into war.
“Iran is willing to reduce tensions with Israel and lay down its arms if Israel does the same”he insisted.
Some hardline conservatives close to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei criticized the president for talking about de-escalating tensions with Israel, saying he should acknowledge his position and avoid giving live interviews.
Pezeshkian was scheduled to hold a news conference in New York on Wednesday, but it was cancelled. It is unclear whether he was forced to suspend her because of her comments.
In Iran, power is in the hands of Ayatollah Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard Corps. They make key strategic decisions, not the president.
It should be noted that Ayatollah Khamenei also did not mention any retaliation plans or make threats against Israel.something quite unusual for him, when he addressed the veterans on Wednesday.
“The time is not right”
Barak Ravid, an Israeli journalist for the American news site Axios, reported on Tuesday that two Israeli officials and Western diplomats had indicated that Hezbollah was urging Iran to come to its aid by attacking Israel. Israeli officials claimed that Iran had told Hezbollah that “the time is not right”according to Ravid.
Last week, the host of the Iranian Internet television show Maydan, known for his ties to the Revolutionary Guard, cited Iranian intelligence sources as saying that Israel had also “carried out a special operation last month, killing members of the Guard and stealing documents.”
He claimed that the Iranian press had been prohibited from reporting on the incident, which allegedly occurred inside Iran, and that authorities were trying to control the information.
In response, the Tasnim news agency, also linked to the Revolutionary Guard, denied the accusations.
The Islamic Republic is in a precarious situation.
He worries that attacking Israel could provoke a US military responsewhich drags the country into a broader conflict.
With an economy crippled by US sanctions and ongoing internal unrest, a potential US attack could further weaken the regime’s security apparatus, potentially emboldening Iranian opponents to rise up once again.
However, if Iran refrains from directly intervening in Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel, risks sending a signal to other allied militias in the region that, in times of crisis, the Islamic Republic can prioritize its own survival and interests over theirs.
This could weaken Iran’s influence and alliances throughout the region.
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