AMLO's legacy

By Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera*

Sep 26, 2024, 09:01 AM EDT

With Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s term in office just a few days away (on September 30, 2024), it is worth analyzing his legacy. This popular and controversial figure will go down in history—whether we like it or not—as a “transformer” and, for some, as a President who managed to revolutionize consciences and acted as the architect of a true regime change. [político] In Mexico, both allies and adversaries acknowledge the scope of the change achieved under his mandate, but differ in their qualitative, ethical and moral assessment of its results.

For some, the President who campaigned and governed with the slogan of “the poor first,” challenged neoliberalism and fought to reduce the privileges of the wealthiest, always seeking to defend the people and the sovereignty of Mexico (and its natural resources). For others, AMLO did turn out to be a “danger to Mexico,” because (for them) he destroyed democracy, allied himself (supposedly) with drug trafficking, and initiated a regime that drives away investment (particularly foreign investment), which will ultimately undermine the economic development of our nation. In reality, López Obrador’s administration turned out to be a period full of light and dark, which everyone judges differently, according to their ideological perspective. However, there are undeniable facts that are worth highlighting and that characterize the legacy of someone who has been one of the most popular presidents in recent Mexican history.

On the one hand, López Obrador consolidates a model to supposedly ensure the “well-being” of the neediest Mexicans. Thus, the so-called “welfare programs” emerge and spread, which many consider perhaps his greatest legacy and which reach the most vulnerable groups in the country, among which stand out the elderly, single mothers and unemployed youth (who are “building the future”), among others. All this supposedly occurs in a context of struggle against neoliberalism and the paradigms of the “right,” the gradual elimination of privileges for the rich and the end of an old political class of conservatives and reactionaries (using the phrases of the still-President today). However, reality seems to contradict the official analysis of what Obradorism was.

Without ideologies, or likes or dislikes, the data speak for themselves and show us a reality very different from the aspirations of the Obrador project. First, the “poor first” government unquestionably benefited the richest in Mexico; in other words, Mexican billionaires are richer than ever. During the six-year term of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the richest people in the country have seen their wealth grow by more than 79 billion dollars (source: Expansión, April 11, 2024). The richest man in Mexico, Carlos Slim Helú, turned out to be the most benefited during the period of the Fourth Transformation Government (4T).

On the other hand, the official discourse of Obradorism aspired to eliminate the so-called “PRIAN” from the national political scene. In reality, key figures from the PRI and PAN (already in decline) were incorporated into Morena—the party founded by López Obrador—who occupied strategic positions in public administration and began to govern the states and municipalities of Mexico—now dressed in cherry. No one can deny that Morena took the best and the worst (in every sense) of the parties that its “left” members supposedly hated the most. Called for unity and eager to continue advancing electorally, Morena members and supporters opted for the pragmatism of including in their ranks opportunistic actors and grasshoppers who not only represented the PRI and the PAN, but also other parasitic parties, such as the Labor Party (PT) or the “Ecologist” Green Party. This shows us, in practice, the incorporation of a key part of the PRIAN into Morena (in addition to the founders of the party who were of PRI extraction).

But the true legacy of López Obrador is being consolidated in the final stretch of his six-year term. In reality, we could think of a true change of regime, which returns to centralizing power, or concentrating it in a single party—previously green, white and red; now, cherry-colored. The approval of the Judicial Reform constitutes one of the last links of a new regime anchored again in centralism and perhaps (later) in the existence of an effective (or hegemonic) single party. Thus, the legacy of Andrés Manuel López Obrador is the return to a kind of PRI era, but now with the military, outside of their barracks, playing a fundamental role in the life of Mexico. In other words, the true legacy of Obradorism is a single-party system with an essential touch of militarism. The role of the military becomes central in this new regime, in which social programs are expanded, hyper-surveillance is advanced and big capital is benefited in a very special way. The large government projects and their contractors make primary use of the Armed Forces, whom López Obrador calls the “people in uniform”—without considering the role of the “generals” and other senior officers who came before him, who make decisions and who are definitely not people.

AMLO turned out to be, by far, a genius of communication and political marketing. His charisma and ability to communicate with the people were accompanied by actors who are experts in making propaganda for the regime, which he promises will be a new one, not a revolutionary one, but rather the product of a reaction that leads us to a (now militarized) regime of a (perhaps) hegemonic party. And this is not a criticism, it is simply the description of reality, once the first floor of what Obradorism calls the “Fourth Transformation” has been completed.

The Dr. Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera

is a professor at the School of Politics and Government at George Mason University. This article was previously published inHowever

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