For different reasons, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have the opportunity to gain an advantage, but also to fall behind in the polls, in Tuesday’s presidential debate.
While Vice President Harris has a 31 percentage point lead over Trump among multicultural voter groups, including Latinos, the figure drops to five percentage points when considering all voters.
According to a recent My Code Intelligence Center poll for La Opinión, 63% of Latino, Black, ANNHPI and LGBTQIA+ voters intend to vote for Harris versus 32% who support former President Trump.
However, the same poll reveals that while 50% of voters in general support Harris, 45% support Trump, although considering the margin of error in the poll, the Democrat’s advantage is minimal.
“Kamala Harris’ mission here is to present herself to those groups of voters who may be harder to reach,” said Ricardo Ramirez, an expert analyst in politics, democracy and social justice at Forward Shift Strategies. “Groups like young Latinos, […] So the debate […] It’s a monumental opportunity in the little time that remains of the campaign, since it’s one of the few instances that remains with a high level of exposure, so for Kamala Harris that’s going to be a key point.”
While there was consensus at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, Illinois that the Democrats were gaining momentum in favor of Vice President Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, there were voices that recognized the impossibility of sending the birds of a feather into flight.
Former President Barack Obama, former First Lady Michelle Obama, former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and others have warned that this is not the time for Democrats to get complacent. Clinton even acknowledged that she herself suffered from the spirit of “certainty” that predicted victory in 2016, when she lost to Trump.
“Don’t be distracted or complacent. Talk to your friends and neighbors; volunteer; be proud defenders of the truth and the country we all love,” Clinton said.
Biden’s exit, Harris’ rise
Experts questioned about the presidential debate acknowledge that it will be important for Vice President Harris, as an opportunity to consolidate her rise, beyond the “vibe” that the Democrats are experiencing.
In that sense, there is an analogy between what the debate means for the Democrat, as much as what the debate that President Joe Biden had in June with former President Trump meant, after which the former decided to withdraw from the race and support Harris.
“This debate will be read in relation to the first one [de Biden con Trump] and the consequences it had in the case of Vice President Kamala Harris as a candidate now owned by the Democratic Party, since it is the opportunity to show the contrast not only with her opponent, who is Trump, but with her predecessor, who is President Biden,” considered Carlos Aguasaco, professor of Latin American Cultural Studies and director of the Department of Interdisciplinary Arts and Sciences at City College of CUNY.
In Trump’s case, the academic said, it will be the “first time” that he will be seen as the oldest person in a presidential race, so he will have to show that he has the energy, but also what it will be like to face a woman again.
“The test will also be how he will face a debate with a woman of color, with a woman who is gaining momentum, who is currently the greatest threat to Trump. I believe that he still has not fully understood how to handle her,” Aguasaco said.
Harris’s firm step
Although Vice President Harris made some firm strides at the DNC, the presidential debate will be crucial to her continued consolidation.
“It will also allow her to be the owner of her own message, which is something that needs to be consolidated after the Democratic convention, which went very well. That is the reason why this debate is going to be very important for her,” Aguasaco said.
Ramírez agreed with Aguasaco that Harris has a chance, but added that the vice president has the mission of showing Trump that he likes to divide.
“Kamala Harris’s second mission is to allow us to have memories of that, that [Trump] “He is a person who seeks to divide, who seeks to instill fear and turn us against each other,” the analyst said.