On September 2, the financial news agency Bloomberg reported that Iran would soon deliver ballistic missiles to Russia. Citing unnamed European officials, Bloomberg He wrote that Iran could begin deliveries “within days.” The deliveries are said to be hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles that could be used in the war in Ukraine.
“I don’t think Europe or the West has much political leverage at this point to stop this potential deal,” says Iran expert Arman Mahmoudian, a professor of Russian and Middle Eastern studies at the University of South Florida.Both Russia and Iran have been subjected to severe sanctions. They may think they have nothing more to lose. This could motivate them to cooperate more with each other.“.
The role of Shahed drones in the Ukraine war
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow has expanded its cooperation with Iran. According to the Ukrainian secret service, Russia is expected to have purchased more than 2,000 drones from Iran. According to military experts, Russia is using these drones as a “cheaper substitute for expensive cruise missiles,” which cause devastating damage.
As early as August 2024, European intelligence sources told Reuters news agency that Iran and Russia had signed a contract for the delivery of Ababil and Fateh-360 ballistic missiles in December 2023. According to Reuters, dozens of Russian servicemen have reportedly received training in Iran in the use of the Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile system.
The delivery of hundreds of missiles to Russia “would represent, in our view, a dramatic escalation in Iranian support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” warned Vedant Patel, a spokesman for the US State Department, in August. The Biden administration has warned Tehran’s leaders of “serious consequences.” In this context, the United States and the European Union have since imposed new sanctions against Iran.
Rapprochement or escalation?
Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, had promised a new foreign policy during his election campaign. He said he would pursue policies in favour of lifting sanctions and was ready to resume dialogue with the West over his controversial nuclear programme.
His foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is considered an experienced diplomat. He participated in the international nuclear negotiations that led to the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal in 2015. The United States unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under President Trump, after which the European contracting parties, France, the United Kingdom and Germany, tried in vain to save the deal. A year after the US withdrawal, Iran has also begun to gradually withdraw from its obligations under the deal. According to experts, the country is now close to its goal of being able to build a nuclear bomb.
“If the missiles were delivered, Iran would face further sanctions. And it would increase European resistance to future cooperative relations with Iran,” political scientist Jane Kinninmont, director of Impact at the European Leadership Network in London, told DW. Iran’s arms deliveries to Russia are a serious problem that hampers diplomacy, particularly with European countries, Kinninmont said. The London-based Middle East expert has observed a “role reversal” between the US and Europe: “While Europe kept diplomacy alive with Iran under the Trump administration, Europe has become tougher on Iran since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
Should Iran supply ballistic missiles to Russia, the country could face drastic punitive measures, such as the ban on flights by the state-owned airline Iran Air in Europe, as warned in March 2024 by the G7 states, made up of Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada and the United States.
The Revolutionary Guard as a center of power
“Iran pursues several strategic objectives that are not necessarily compatible,” writes political scientist Kinninmont. New President Pezeshkian appears to be serious about contacts with Western countries to reduce the pressure of sanctions“He could also count on the cautious support of the Supreme Leader in this regard,” adds the London-based expert. “However, Iran’s growing strategic relationship with Russia and the Middle East policy led by the Revolutionary Guard will remain priorities for Iran and will complicate efforts to establish contacts with the West.”
President Pezeshkian has no influence over the Revolutionary Guards. They are under the command of the spiritual leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters in Iran.The Revolutionary Guard was founded after the 1979 revolution to protect the state ideology. They consider the rapprochement with Western democracies and their influence on society to be a threat to the Islamic Republic. Authoritarian countries such as Russia, which do not criticise the oppression of the population, are seen by them as strategic partners.
“We must not forget that the majority of Iran’s missile industry is controlled by the Revolutionary Guards, which manufacture missiles independently of the Ministry of Defense,” says Iran expert Arman Mahmoudian. “Given that most of Iran’s military and foreign policy decisions are made in the office of the Supreme Leader and directly by him, I doubt that the president has much influence in stopping these processes.”
The only political instrument that Europe or the West could use in this situation would be to single out Iran. that the delivery of missiles to Russia could undermine nuclear negotiations, Mahmoudian concludes.
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