Three days after Ukrainian forces launched a cross-border attack on Russia’s Kursk region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow must be “feeling” the consequences of its invasion of the neighbouring country.
“Russia brought war to our land and should feel sorry for what it has done,” Zelensky said in his speech on Thursday evening, without referring directly to the Ukrainian offensive.
“Ukrainians know how to achieve their goals. We We did not choose to achieve our goals in war“, he added.
Russia says at least 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers, backed by tanks and armored vehicles, entered its territory on Tuesday morning, in what appears to be one of the biggest attacks on Russian soil since the war began.
There are many reports coming from the battlefield, but most of them cannot be verified and the full picture of what is happening in Ukraine remains unclear. Moreover, the situation is constantly changing.
Ukrainian troops have been consolidating their positions in the occupied Kursk territory, while they are expanding their zone of control in other areas, as they continue to advance or carry out reconnaissance raids from strategic positions..
Today they occupy most of the central Sudzha region, west of the river of the same name.
Russian troops are holding the high ground on the eastern bank, but are in a difficult situation: they are being outflanked on both flanks.
The grey area
Much of the territory in the Kursk region is located in the so-called grey zone, one that is not controlled by any side in the conflict.
It is from there that information about the appearance of mobile reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is most frequently transmitted.
On Wednesday evening, it was reported that advanced units of the Ukrainian army attempted to seize another regional center, Korenevo, located 30 kilometers northwest of Sudzha and 20 kilometers from the nearest border point. According to Russian channels on Telegram, the attack was repelled,
But Ukrainian troops have not retreated very far, and may be preparing a counteroffensive.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also attacking in other directions and there are reports of mass evacuations of civilians.
Some border residents have been evacuated, including by tanks, according to information provided to Russian President Vladimir Putin by the acting governor of Koronevo, Alexei Smirnov.
The day before, a video also appeared showing more than 40 Russian soldiers surrendering to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of the Sudzha checkpoint.
The Russian Defense Ministry says that in the past 24 hours “no enemy advance has been allowed” and “attempts by individual units to penetrate deep into the territory in the direction of Kursk” are continuing.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a respected American think tank, is, as usual, cautious in its assessment of battle outcomes, recording the positions of the warring sides only on the basis of 100% confirmed geolocation data.
According to ISW, the advance of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region was at least 10 kilometers deep when Ukrainian armored vehicles took up positions along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenevo highway.
“The confirmed location of Ukrainian units advancing in the Kursk region indicates that they have broken through at least two Russian defensive lines and captured a stronghold,” ISW writes.
In October 2022, Kursk Governor Roman Starovoit announced that the construction of two reinforced defense lines had been completed.
The modest figures of the Ministry of Defense
In its Tuesday report, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that 300 members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had entered the Kursk region. In its Thursday report, it stressed the importance of preventing the enemy’s advance.
“In total, since the start of military operations in Kursk, enemy losses amounted to 660 servicemen and 82 armored vehicles, including eight tanks, 12 armored personnel carriers, six infantry fighting vehicles, 55 armored combat vehicles and one engineering vehicle for removing obstacles,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.
The day before, on August 7, Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov informed Putin that the advance of Ukrainian units (he estimated their number at up to 1,000 people) towards the Kursk region had been halted.
That same afternoon, a state of emergency was declared in the region.
“Almost completely” under Ukrainian control
Russian pro-war channels on Telegram claim that The Ukrainian command has deployed personnel and equipment from at least five brigades and several more combat battalions (not counting auxiliary units) in the operation in the Kursk region.
The Rybar propaganda channel reports that there are eight Ukrainian brigades, two airborne assault brigades and two mechanized brigades, as well as four others that, according to its information, are “participating in limited measures.”
According to their reports, Sudzha is “almost completely under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” and Ukrainian reinforcements are being transferred there.
“Russian forces control the roundabout east of the city,” Rybar writes. He also notes that “Ukrainian formations managed to enter and consolidate their positions in Myrny.”
The loss of Mirny would mean that the regional centre and its surroundings are almost surrounded, with only one road left to retreat to the northeast: the P200 highway to Kursk.
Other pro-war channels report on deeper advances of Ukrainian units, in particular, a breakthrough on the road leading to the city of Lgov, the capture of Malaya Loknya, attacks on the village of Snagost and battles in the area of the village of Anastasyevka north of Sudzha, 35 km from the Kursk nuclear power plant and 65 km from the regional center.
Why does Ukraine need an operation on Russian territory?
Despite the successful start of the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, The situation of Ukrainian troops in other parts of the front remains difficult and, in some places, critical.
Is the Ukrainian command’s decision to divert combat-ready reserves that could repel the Russian offensive in the hottest areas (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, in the Chasov Yar area) to the Kursk region justified?
It is difficult to judge at this stage what long-term plans the initiators of this operation will have on Russian territory. But it is already clear that the escalation in the direction of Kursk will inevitably lead to the opening of a new front.
For the Russian side, at least at the first stage, the disadvantages are obvious: the transfer of military operations to its soil, the loss of territory, real estate and property, dead, wounded, prisoners, refugees, panic and a sense of defeat, destruction of infrastructure and disruption of logistics – all the horrors of war.
What’s next?
On the one hand, the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region seems to mirror the Russian offensive in Kharkiv.
The only difference is that it is faster, and it occurs on terrain that was poorly prepared for defense in the event of a large-scale invasion and there was simply a shortage of soldiers.
Force the Russian command to withdraw troops from other promising areas to save the Kursk regionwhere, among other things, an important strategic facility, the nuclear power plant, is located, is an understandable target.
Kyiv’s plans to strengthen potential negotiating positions are also understandable: all wars end in negotiations.
The realities of the current Russian-Ukrainian war show that it can be very difficult to recover territories, even captured ones, if the enemy has managed to consolidate them.
On the other hand, could it not happen that the best-trained Ukrainian units are decimated in useless battles, and the seizure of territories leads to an increase in Russian patriotism rather than defeatist sentiments?
This is already a question for the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which took the unusual decision to invade the Kursk region.
*With reporting by Ilya Abishev, BBC military correspondent, and Malu Cursino, BBC News.
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