Europe still seems to be digesting the idea that war has once again reached the heart of the Old Continent after decades of peace.
Russia’s invasion of the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine in 2014 set off alarm bells.
That was the first warning. The second would come on February 24, 2022, when Vladimir Putin’s government launched a surprise, bloody, large-scale military invasion of Ukraine.
Figures show that Europe is concerned about its security and faces a triple challenge: continue to equip Volodymyr Zelensky’s army, modernize its arsenals and recruit and train troopseven returning to the old model of compulsory military service.
Faced with this new scenario, most European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) increased their military spending last year. Their combined share accounted for 28% of the total budget of the Atlantic Alliance, the highest figure in a decadeaccording to a study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
“Since 2014, NATO has undergone the most significant transformation in collective defence in a generation. We have put in place the most comprehensive defense plans since the Cold War, with more than 500,000 troops in high availability “We have also doubled the number of combat groups along its eastern flank,” the Brussels-based communications office of the organisation told BBC Mundo.
The countries that form this eastern flank, also known as The “Bucharest Nine” are the closest geographically to Russia: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, in addition to the newcomers to the organization: Sweden and Finland.
“For the European NATO states, the last two years of The war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the security outlook”, says Lorenzo Scarazzato, a researcher at SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme.
“This change in threat perception is reflected in the increase in the proportion of GDP spent on military spendingand NATO’s 2% target is increasingly seen as a benchmark rather than a threshold to be achieved,” he adds.
Spending on weapons without personnel
But many analysts warn that spending more on weapons without personnel is not viable.
Hence the idea of return to compulsory military service or some form of recruitment has been gaining attention in recent years in several European countries.
“How military personnel are recruited and retained is a decision for our allies. Around One third of NATO members have some form of compulsory military service and others are considering recruiting. The important thing is that the allies continue to have armed forces capable of protecting our countries,” a spokesperson for the organization told BBC Mundo.
With different formats and levels of commitment, up to 10 European countries maintain some scheme of forced military service or voluntary recruitment: Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Austria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, France and Greece.
The difference between compulsory service and conscription is that in the former all men (and sometimes also all women) of a certain age must serve their country for a minimum period of time, while in the latter Everyone is eligible to do so, but there is a chance they may not be called up. to active service.
The main changes have occurred in the Baltic and Scandinavian countries in line with the Increased perception of risk in the face of possible Russian aggression or an escalation of the conflict.
“The entire former Soviet space and the Warsaw Pact countries in Eastern Europe continued to maintain compulsory military service. One of the most obvious reasons is the fear of Russia’s return to the area and the resurface from a belligerent attitude of its neighbor”, Luis Velasco, professor of History of International Relations at the University of Vigo and visiting professor at King’s College London, explains to BBC Mundo.
“But For Western European countries, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, it no longer made sense”There was no reason to maintain such huge numbers of soldiers and reservists in operation,” he added.
“In addition, there was strong social pressure to end compulsory military service from the pacifist movement, the environmentalist movement and even the feminist movement.”
Danger perception
Latvia is the country that has most recently implemented forced military service.. It reintroduced the obligation on 1 January this year, after having been removed in 2006. But its neighbours on the Baltic Sea have moved quickly too.
Lithuania had abandoned its draft in 2008.but reinstated it in 2016 following the first Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and Estonia has always maintained a form of compulsory military service since independence in 1991, although it has expanded the network of those forced to be called up.
For its part, Finland, which recently joined NATOhas maintained compulsory military service since World War II and is estimated to attract 27,000 male citizens each year.
And its two Scandinavian neighbours have not only returned to a similar model, but have also introduced parity: Women are also required to do military service in Sweden and Norway..
Sweden, which joined NATO in March, had abandoned compulsory military service in 2010, but reintroduced it in 2018 as the country prepared to join NATO.
In March, Denmark announced plans to expand compulsory military service women for the first time and increase the standard service time from four to 11 months.
“There are certain countries with an outstanding level of awareness of national defense, such as Finland, where Military service has a very high level of acceptance in society, close to 90%”, Francisco Gan Pampols, retired lieutenant general of the Spanish army, reminds BBC Mundo.
The Nordic people understand very well the threat that looms over them and where it comes from, he added.
How is the war effort sustained?
“AND There are other countries where it would be practically impossible to reintroduce “This concept is not the case because the sense of national defence is very low. Defence is left to a professional army and they are responsible,” explains Gan Pampols.
But the truth is that there is no such thing at present. In Europe there was no army that could sustain the war effort which could lead to a conflict like the one in Ukraine if additional resources are not mobilised.
Experts say that not only do we need to recruit more troops, but we also need to train them, send them to the front and give them time to rest when they return. In that cycle a ready-made replacement is needed.
The other The challenge that countries face is the degree of technical development of their armies.which has increased exponentially.
“As specialization grows, so does the time required to acquire it. Today, vacancies in the military They are positions that require a lot of training and then practice. “First you have to train and then you have to practice. And that takes time,” says Gan Pampols.
And as an example he gives the position of drone operator. Taking the course to pilot them is short, but then you have to train for do it at night, with infrared vision systems or virtual reality glasses.
These are processes in which the amount of time required to ensure success skyrockets.
Rearm to avoid war
“We are not rearming because we want war. We are rearming because we want to avoid it,” said Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, announcing Denmark’s military plans.
Military intelligence agrees on this: The aim of Europe’s budget-boosting plans is not to go to war; it is to deter the enemyhave a credible strategy.
And for this we must improve the arsenal, but also human capabilities and training.
Germany has understood this very well. Its analysts are working on a scenario for 2030 in which Europe is embroiled in what military jargon calls “a high-intensity regional conflict”.
Faced with this possibility, the government of Olaf Scholz has determined that the number of military personnel at its disposal and the level of danger facing it are not proportional and is therefore considering reinstating compulsory military service.
Germany ruled out such recruitment in 2011, but Russia’s war in Ukraine has forced it to reconsider.
Protecting exports
With such a measure, the country would show that it is credible and at the same time protect its most valuable asset: its exports. Germany increased its defense budget because Its economic capacity is based on the fact that there is nothing that puts its production at risk..
Germany estimates that a regional conflict would put its communications, supplies and exports at risk, and Its main partners in Europe would enter a war economy and stop buying from it..
As early as 2022, Berlin has promised to invest massively in its military forces, which it considers outdated and small, in an effort to play a much more assertive role in defending Europe.
But to this day, as in every other Western European country, conscription has always been something that governments have been reluctant to introduce.
“Not only is it unpopular with those it is asked to serve – and their families – but it is also It removes human capital from any state’s workforce and has economic implications.”, writes Rod Thornton, professor of International, Defence and Security Studies at King’s College London on the website The Conversation.
The geopolitical and military map of almost all European countries has changed a lot in the last decade, but rebuilding defense systems takes much longerAnd Russia knows this very well, analysts warn.
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