In the ephemeral world of drug trafficking, the Sinaloa native Ismael Zambada Garciabetter known as “The May”managed to remain in the illicit business for more than five decades.
His good streak ended on July 25, when he was arrested on U.S. soil, getting off a plane in which he was traveling with Joaquin Guzman Lopezone of the sons of the former drug lord “El Chapo”.
With “El Mayo”, the North American authorities managed to arrest the most important drug trafficker in Mexico, co-founder and, until then, leader of the powerful Sinaloa Cartel.
On both sides of the Rio Grande, the blow to organized crime unleashed a series of speculations: did the boss surrender or was he tricked and taken by force by Guzmán López?
“Late” and “insufficient” response
For its part, the Mexican government denied that national or American agents participated in the capture of “El Mayo,” and has sent some 400 members of the Armed Forces to Sinaloa to “strengthen security.”
“The government took almost twelve hours to offer an initial position regarding the arrest, which was insufficient,” said Dr. Victor Sanchez, Secretary General of the Autonomous University of Coahuila (UAdeC), in an interview with DW.
According to the security expert, the response of the Mexican Administration made it clear that has not had access to relevant information from Washingtonbut also pointed out flaws in the intelligence mechanisms of the Latin American country: “There should be communication channels within the Sinaloa Cartel, undercover agents or informants. Being one of the two main criminal organizations in the country, there is no excuse for it not being closely monitored.”
Likewise, the researcher from the analysis center InSight Crime, Victoria Dittmar, He is surprised that the arrest of Ismael Zambada has not resulted in a diplomatic crisis and accusations of intervention by the Mexican government, as has occurred in recent episodes.
“It could be interpreted as an attempt to restore and strengthen anti-narcotics cooperation with the US government,” believes the organized crime expert.
Will the violence intensify?
López Obrador said more troops were being sent to the north of the country, but added that “so far, there is no indication of clashes.”
“They are trying to minimize in news terms an escalation of violence that seems predictable,” says Victor Sanchez, for whom the “inadequate” response of the Mexican government has not been “up to par.”
Although Victoria Dittmar indicates that, so far, there has not been an increase in homicides or armed attacks, she does highlight The tension and fear that the news of the capture of the “Mayo” generated in many Sinaloanswho still remember the violent response of organized crime after the latest operations to capture Ovid Guzman Lopezanother of “El Chapo’s” sons.
The “Mayo” against the “Chapitos”
Within the Sinaloa Cartel, the faction of “The Chapitos”led by the sons of “El Chapo,” has fought bloody battles with the “Mayo” faction in various parts of northwestern Mexico, the InSight Crime researcher told DW.
Political scientist Sanchez He fears that hostilities will now become more open.adding that a possible betrayal by Guzmán López and the “Chapitos” faction would not only generate violence in the entities where the Sinaloa Cartel is facing other organizations, but also in the entities it already controlled.
Reactive strategy
“Violence is not necessarily going to break out this week,” said the Secretary General of the UAdeC in an interview with DW, and continued: “The operators of the Sinaloa Cartel They are concerned about the information that ‘Mayo’ and Guzmán López may provide to the United States GovernmentThey are reorganizing the business so that they are not captured, but in the following weeks they will dedicate themselves to fighting among themselves.”
Hence, Sánchez warns that the reinforcement of troops has to occur in more areas of the country: “What worries me is that, until now, The Mexican government has shown a passive attitudeeven by surprise, and therefore could have a reactive strategy in the face of a crisis of violence.”
Finally, the security analyst recalls that “Mayo” lasted more than five decades in the illicit business, so his arrest could also reveal possible “relationships with many politicians, mayors, governors, secretaries of state, and even with some presidents” in Mexico.
(cp)