NATO summit: an alliance “Trump-proof”

Leaders of NATO’s 32 countries will meet this week to celebrate 75 years of the military alliance “the strongest and most successful in history,” as the group’s outgoing general secretary, Jens Stoltenberg, described it in an interview with DW.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO has been revitalized. Allies have gradually expanded their military and financial support for Ukraine, even though the country is not a member of the alliance. NATO has also drawn up new plans for its defense and deployed more forces to states bordering Russia, and now has 500,000 troops ready to fight in Europe.

It has also welcomed two new members, Sweden and Finland, two democracies with modern armed forces. In addition, NATO members are now investing more in defence: from nine countries that spent two percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence in 2021, the figure has risen to twenty-three.

Is Biden up to the job?

The summit in Washington will serve to send a signal of strength and unity. However, the meeting risks being overshadowed by US domestic politics. With President Joe Biden facing serious questions about his ability to lead the country and win re-election, a new term for Donald Trump seems increasingly likely to many in Europe.

During his tenure, Trump repeatedly criticized the alliance and threatened to make Europeans pay for American protection. Most recently, during the election campaign, he even suggested that Russia could “do whatever it wanted” to NATO members that failed to meet their defense spending targets.

While Trump is unlikely to withdraw entirely from NATO, many do expect him to substantially reduce America’s role in European security. For an alliance that has been dominated by massive US military power, that could have significant consequences.

Stoltenberg and many Europeans are “very complacent,” says Majda Rude, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The expert points out that there are still nine countries, including Canada, Spain and Italy, that spend less than two percent of their GDP on defense.

“The necessary adjustments in terms of budget, planning, strategy and public acceptance will not happen overnight,” explains Ian Lesser, a fellow at the transatlantic think tank German Marshall Fund, citing as an example the need to build a stronger defence industrial base in Europe, an effort that could take decades.

This could also affect Western support for kyiv. At their summit in Washington, NATO leaders will greenlight a plan that will allow the alliance to take the lead in coordinating security assistance for Ukraine and training its forces.

The plan, created after a significant delay in US arms deliveries to kyiv, has been described as a way to make NATO backing for Ukraine “Trump-proof” amid fears the Republican leader would stop all aid to Ukraine if elected.

Political turmoil in Europe

A crucial question is not only whether the Europeans will be able to do so, but also whether they are willing to fill the gap should the United States immediately withdraw or reduce its aid to Ukraine. The question is legitimate at a time when many leaders of the Old Continent seem weakened by the circumstances.

French President Emmanuel Macron will arrive at the summit fresh from a runoff election in which his party came second. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a growing far right at home. And British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is just starting out in office.

“It is not only Europe that is concerned about the outcome of the US election and its potential effects on NATO, but also about how this outcome could influence political developments in Europe,” says Lesser. In some ways, he argues, there is a general mood of political uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic.

Keep reading:

• Russia threatens US with ‘consequences’ after Ukrainian attack in Crimea
• Russia says it has evidence linking Ukraine to Moscow concert hall terror attack
• NATO: “The path to peace means more weapons for Ukraine”