Hurricane Beryl continues to move westward in the Atlantic, making history for its rapid intensification.
Not only is it a powerful and potentially deadly hurricane, it is also the first of this strength recorded in June and the one that has formed further east in the same month since which records began in the mid-19th century.
According to the US National Hurricane Center, the storm made landfall on Monday, hitting the island of Carriacou, a dependency of Grenada, at around 11:00 am.
The agency said the tropical system strengthened as it made landfall and is now a Category 4 hurricane with extremely dangerous maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (241 km/h).
95% of Grenada is without power. Damage is also reported in the Grenadines, Barbados and Tobago.
The Caribbean basin typically does not see its first major hurricane until around September 1.
“It is rare to see a storm intensify so quickly and so early in the season in this part of the Atlantic. Several islands throughout the Lower Antilles face extreme risk to life and property,” warned Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s senior hurricane forecaster.
The North Atlantic could experience up to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher this year.
This figure is more than double the normal rate, warned the US meteorological agency – NOAA, which has a powerful network of observation stations.
Normally, three major hurricanes would be expected in a season.
In total, estimates predict up to 13 Atlantic hurricanes of category one or higher for the period from June to November.
Key factors behind
Higher sea surface temperatures are partly to blame, as is a likely shift in regional weather patterns. While there is no evidence that climate change is producing more hurricanes, it is causing the more powerful ones are more likely and the rains they cause are more intense.
“This season [de huracanes] “It seems abnormal,” NOAA Director Rick Spinrad said at a news conference.
The recent weakening of the El Niño weather pattern –and the probable arrival of La Niña in the coming months– creates more favorable atmospheric conditions for these storms in the Atlantic.
Unlike what will happen in Atlantic waters, NOAA forecasts a “below normal” hurricane season in the Pacific region central, where the progressive arrival of La Niña has the opposite effect.
On average, the Atlantic basin—which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico—experiences 14 named tropical storms per year, of which seven are hurricanes and three are major hurricanes.
Tropical storms become hurricanes when they reach maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph (119 km/h). “Major” hurricanes (Category 3 and above) are those that reach at least 178 km/h (111 mph).
In total, NOAA expects between 17 and 25 named tropical stormsof which between eight and 13 could become hurricanes and between four and seven could become major hurricanes.
Up to 7 major hurricanes
The names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie and William. These designations – in case they occur – are provided by the World Meteorological Organization.
Naming each one helps when sending alerts.
He The highest number of major hurricanes in a single season in the Atlantic has been seven, observed in both 2005 and 2020.
NOAA’s forecast suggests 2024 could approach that figure.
The exact causes of each storm are complex, but two key factors are behind.
First, there is the probable change from El Niño to La Niña in the coming months, helping these storms grow more easily.
And in second place, Sea surface temperatures are much warmer than usual in the primary hurricane development region in the tropical Atlantic.
That often means more powerful hurricanes, because warmer waters provide more energy for storms to grow as they move westward.
“All the ingredients for a strong hurricane season are in place,” said Ken Graham, director of the U.S. National Weather Service.
NOAA also cited the reduction of Atlantic trade winds and less wind shearall of which tends to favor the formation of tropical storms.
Human-caused climate change is warming our oceans globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, causing sea levels to rise and increasing the risk of storm surge.
Rising sea levels represent a clear human influence on the potential damage that a hurricane can cause.
To draw attention to how global warming is making more intense storms more likely, a recent study explored the possibility of create a new category level six.
This would “alert the public that the strongest tropical cyclones we are now experiencing are unprecedented and the reason for this is [es] he warming of the ocean surface “due to climate change,” explains the study’s lead author, Michael Wehner, a scientist at the Berkeley Laboratory.
Hurricane Categories They only take into account wind speedBut these storms pose other significant dangers, such as heavy rainfall and coastal flooding, which are generally getting worse with climate change, NOAA warned.
Warmer air can hold more moisture, increasing the intensity of precipitation.
Meanwhile, Storm surges (short-term increases in sea level caused by hurricanes) are now occurring on a higher base.
This is because sea levels are now higher, mainly due to melting glaciers and warming seas.
“Sea level rise worsens the total depth of flooding, making hurricanes more severe.” today are more damaging than the storms of previous years“says Andrew Dessler, professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University.
Researchers stress the need for the public to be aware of the dangers these storms can pose, particularly “rapid intensification events,” which may be unexpected.
“We are already seeing general increases in fastest rate at which Atlantic hurricanes intensify“which means we are likely already seeing an increased risk of hazards to our coastal communities,” explains Andra Garner, assistant professor at Rowan University in the United States.
“It can still be difficult to forecast rapid intensification of storms, which in turn increases the challenges of trying to protect our coastal communities,” he added.
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