The far-right National Rally party (RN, for the French acronym of Rassemblement National) achieved a historic victory in the first round of the parliamentary elections that were held this Sunday in France, according to projections.
According to data from polls delivered by France Télévisions and Radio France once the elections closed, RN, Marine Le Pen’s party, achieved around 33% of the votes.
The leftist New Popular Front coalition reached approximately 28% of the votes. And President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition, Ensemble, won about 21%.
Once the first results were known, Le Pen addressed her supporters.
“Democracy has spoken and the French have put RN and its allies on top, practically annihilating Macron’s camp,” he said.
He added that people clearly want to “turn the page after Seven years of disdainful and corrosive government” and asked his supporters to vote again for RN next Sunday in the second round.
President Macron, who unexpectedly called these parliamentary elections last month after the results in the European elections that were also positive for RN, said that a front must be created to defeat the far right.
“We must vote for Republican and Democratic candidates,” he added, referring to the second round.
The French president applauded the massive participation in this Sunday’s elections, which according to several reports is the highest in the last 40 years.
The parliamentary elections in France, which define how the National Assembly is formed, have two electoral rounds. The second will take place next Sunday and will end up defining the French political panorama.
Macron once again stated that, whatever the outcome of the elections, he will not resign from his position as presidentwhose term ends in 2027.
A partial victory
The National Group had never before won the first round of a parliamentary election in the country.
In the last parliamentary elections, those of 2022, he obtained 18.7% of the votes in the first round—15% less than this Sunday.
But this historic victory does not mean that the fight is over.
In these elections, the 577 deputies of the National Assembly are elected, who will hold their positions for 5 years (or less, if the president dissolves the Assembly, as happened in this case).
To choose them, the country is divided into 577 constituencies and in each one a deputy is elected.
For a candidate to win in his or her constituency in the first round, he or she must obtain more than 50% of the votes.
If no candidate succeeds, the election goes to a second round, in which the two candidates who received the most votes in the first round and all other candidates who received 12.5% or more of the votes registered to vote in the constituency compete.
That is to say, There may be constituencies in which there are more than two candidates competing in the second round.
According to Paul Kirby, digital editor for Europe at the BBC, “each constituency has its own political history.”
“RN may win some of them tonight and go ahead in most of the others“.
“However, the left-wing alliance also did very well.”
In their reactions to the results of this Sunday, President Macron and some other center and left leaders already called for vote tactically next Sunday to leave out the far-right RN candidates.
Former left-wing presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who heads one of the parties that are part of the New Popular Front coalition, said: “Nowhere are we going to allow the National Rally to win.”
“This is why, in cases where we come third, we will withdraw from the race,” he added.
Gabriel Attalcurrent Prime Minister of France (from the line of President Macron), made a statement to the same effect.
He announced that candidates from the Macron-led coalition Ensemble, who obtained enough votes to participate in the second round but have no chance of winning, would withdraw to give a non-RN candidate a chance to win.
“Our goal now is to prevent RN from obtaining an absolute majority and leading the country with its disastrous project,” he said.
Two paths to France
When the final results are known on Sunday, President Macron will appoint a new prime minister. Traditionally, the head of the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the Assembly is chosen.
If the National Group manages to obtain an absolute majority next Sunday, it is to be expected that the president of that party, Jordan Bardellabecomes prime minister.
Bardella is a 28-year-old politician who has worked closely with Marine Le Pen since he was 16 and succeeded her as party president when she ran for president in 2022.
After the preliminary results this Sunday, Bardella affirmed that the country has two paths: “the worst”—that of the left coalition, which he described as an “existential danger”—and that of his party.
However, he added that he would be a prime minister for “all French people” and that he would be respectful of the cohabitation with President Macronwhich is the phenomenon that occurs when the party leading in parliament is not the same as the president.
Speaking on Sunday, Marine Le Pen said: “We need an absolute majority so that Jordan Bardella can be appointed Prime Minister within a week.”
Polls by France Télévisions and Radio France, however, project that RN will win after next Sunday’s elections between 230 and 280 seats in the Assembly, less than the 289 needed to have the absolute majority that Le Pen speaks of.
In any case, the current prime minister, Gabriel Attal, stated that the extreme right in France is “at the gates of power”.
Analysis by Hugh Schofield, BBC correspondent in Paris
The far-right National Rally has scored another victory and is well on its way to turning French politics upside down.
In the coming days there will be much talk about centre and left-wing candidates who will withdraw from the second round in order to concentrate the anti-RN vote.
But it would take a setback of monumental proportions to nullify the only conclusion that can be drawn from this first round of elections, which is that RN is now undisputedly the dominant political force in France.
However, what remains to be decided in the coming week remains very important.
It is the difference between a far-right government with a free hand thanks to an absolute majority in the National Assembly and a far-right government unable to do much because the Assembly is divided.
To minimize the damage, the centrist forces of President Emmanuel Macron and the left-wing alliance New Popular Front They will ask their supporters to vote tactically in the second round on July 7. Even if their own candidate was eliminated, voters will be urged to choose whoever faces RN in their constituency.
But the problem with this type of party orders is that people pay less and less attention to them.
The disappearance of the shame that used to accompany the vote for RN has been a long process, but it can undoubtedly now be concluded.
The other difficulty for RN’s opponents is the high number of so-called triangular votes in the second round, i.e. those constituencies in which next Sunday not two but three candidates will face each other. Normally, one from the centre, one from the far right and one from the left.
The reason for the high number of triangular votes is the high voter turnout, which is in turn a result of the high stakes.
It is also because the lightning campaign made it impossible for the small parties to reach an agreement, so the vote was concentrated in the three blocs.
Obviously, if there are three parties competing in a constituency, it is more difficult for the anti-RN vote to coalesce. In many places there will be centrist or left-wing candidates, but not in all.
Overall, the country now seems to be gripped by a sense that a far-right victory is inevitable. What was once seen as an unimaginable possibility is now a tangible fact.
This depresses and angers many people, especially in big cities like Paris, where a pall of sadness hangs over us.
In the rest of the country, in rural areas, people presumably feel the opposite.
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