France’s governability is at stake. There has been a race against time towards elections that were neither planned nor necessary.
But for President Emmanuel Macron, his decision to call early elections was the “most responsible solution.”
The truth is that political tensions in the French country have divided families and friends.
Not only the fate of a government or a leader is at stake in the parliamentary elections, the first round of which is this Sunday, but also that of a political system.
And the risks do not have to do with hopes that are lost or political careers that are cut short, as happens in a functional democracy in times of peace, but with real violence.
“In France, we are jumping into the unknown”says veteran French political analyst Nicolas Baverez.
Two weeks ago, Macron surprised the country with the call for early elections, after his defeat against the far right in the European Parliament elections.
“France needs a clear majority in serenity and harmony,” he said.
It seems that the French leader thought that a lightning campaign would dissuade voters from their flirtation with the “extremes” and return a centrist majority to the National Assembly.
But many believe that did not make the correct calculation.
There is a high probability that the composition of the lower house will strongly favor the opposition, which could lead to a change of prime minister.
“We are ready”
The far-right organization National Rally (RN, by its French acronym: National Assembly), by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, remains far ahead in the polls, while a left-wing alliance – whose main actor is La France Insoumise, a far-left group – appears in second place.
The most likely outcome is either an absolute majority for the RN – and therefore a far-right government – or a hung parliament, which would lead to paralysis.
Bardella, who at 28 is the leader of RN, told voters his party was “the only credible alternative” to meet France’s aspirations.
He highlighted the organization’s plans to address the cost of living crisis while focusing on immigration and law and order.
“We are ready” to govern, he assured. And that is because hopes to be the next prime minister of France if RN becomes the largest party in the National Assembly.
That party seeks to restrict immigration by abolishing the right to nationality –droit du sol– for anyone who has lived on French soil for at least five years between the ages of 11 and 18.
Outlining his nationalist credentials, Bardella said the most sensitive defence and security jobs would be limited to French citizens, except those with dual nationality.
Pessimism
In the current context, Baverez sees three risks: first, a French sovereign debt crisis as markets challenge the government; second, violence in the streets; and third, institutional collapse.
“Our Fifth Republic was designed to help us overcome crises. But we are in a very unstable situation. Citizens are lost because the president himself is lost, so we could have a brutal breakdown of institutions.”
All of France seems to be aware that the country is at a dangerous crossroads.
“When Macron called the elections on the night of the European elections, I called my children and told them: ‘They realize that we are living in a historic moment’” says Juliette Vilgrain, candidate of Horizons, a party allied to Macron, in the department of Seine-et-Marne, in the north of the country.
“People know that violence is a possibility. People are angry and frustratedand there are politicians who will call for violence. It is manipulation, but that is how it is.”
Macron has alluded to the possibility of a “civil war,” saying that this was the logical conclusion of the programs of the far right and the far left.
His remarks – in a podcast on Monday – have been interpreted as an attempt to scare voters towards the centre, but, according to Báverez, that is deeply wrong.
“It is very dangerous for him to use this word and try to save his power by using fear. In a democracy, when fear is played with, hatred and violence are generated,” he says.
Macron’s interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, said authorities were working on the assumption that there could be violent protests on the nights of the first and second rounds (June 30 and July 7).
“His populist moment”
The nightmare scenario would be a victory for the RN that would provoke calls from the extreme left for demonstrations, which then turn violent and would be joined by people of immigrant origin who live in the banlieuesas the suburbs are known.
The far-left LFI has a large base of support in the banlieues and has made his support for Gaza one of his main campaign issues.
How political instability could affect the Olympic Games, which will be held between July 26 and August 11, is another of the issues that seem not to have been taken into account by the president.
“France is having its populist moment“, says Baverez.
“The United States and the United Kingdom had theirs ten years ago, with Trump and Brexit. “France was saved then thanks to the strength of our institutions, but also thanks to the umbrella of the euro.”
“Being in the euro meant that governments here could continue doing what they always do: buy social peace by increasing public debt. Well, now it’s over.”
The elections in 7 capsules
- There are 577 seats in the National Assembly, including 13 overseas districts and 11 electoral districts representing French expatriates abroad. To obtain an absolute majority a party needs 289.
- The first round eliminates all candidates who fail to obtain the support of 12.5% of locally registered voters.
- Anyone who gets 50% of the vote with a turnout of at least a quarter of the local electorate automatically wins.
- The runoff is a series of second rounds involving two, three, or sometimes four candidates.
- Some candidates can be withdrawn before July 7 to give an ally a better chance of preventing an opponent from winning.
- Some analysts see RN as very close to coming to power for the first time. Its leader in parliament, Marine Le Pen, has run for president three times, but has not.
- Whatever the result, Macron’s position is not at risksince the elections are independent of the presidential elections and the leader still has three years left in office.
*With the collaboration of BBC journalists Hugh Schofield and Paul Kirby.
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