The long-awaited first presidential debate for the November elections in the United States has passed and the consequences are not good for President Joe Biden.
Biden’s main goal in Thursday’s presidential debate with former President Donald Trump was to ease concerns about his age. But the debate deepened them.
Among the reactions, commentators on various media outlets said they had received text messages from some Democratic politicians expressing hope that Biden, 81, would step aside from the presidential race.
Some have raised the possibility of going to the White House and publicly expressing their concern about Biden’s continued position as a candidate.
On Friday, in an attempt to dispel doubts, Biden held a rally in North Carolina where he appeared more energetic than the night before and insisted that he intends to “win this election”.
Could Biden back down now? What would happen? And who could replace him?
Can Joe Biden retire?
The Democratic Party’s candidate will be officially chosen at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago from August 19 to 22.
There, a candidate must obtain the support of the majority of the “delegates” (party representatives in charge of formally electing the candidate).
Based on the results of the primary elections in each state, delegates are allocated proportionally to the candidates.
This year, Biden won about 99% of the nearly 4,000 delegates.
Under Democratic National Committee rules, those delegates are “pledged” to him and are obligated to support his nomination.
But if Biden were to drop out, it would presumably be a pitched battle. There is no official mechanism for him, or anyone else in the party, to choose his successor, meaning Democrats would be left with an open convention.
Presumably, Biden would have some influence over his pledged delegates, but ultimately they would be free to do whatever they wanted when it came to supporting a substitute.
That could spark a frantic race among Democrats who want a shot at the nomination.
It is worth adding that Biden has so far given no indication that he is considering stepping aside.
Could he be forced to leave the candidacy?
This is an even less feasible scenario..
In the modern political era, a major party has never attempted a hostile takeover of the nomination and there is no evidence of any serious plans to attempt it now.
However, the DNC’s rules contain some small loopholes that could, in theory, make it possible for Biden to be ousted from the White House race.
The rules allow delegates to “safely reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,” meaning they could turn to someone else if Democratic voters across the country turned against Biden in large numbers.
Could Kamala Harris replace Biden?
US Vice President Kamala Harris would automatically take Biden’s place if he resigned during his presidential term.
But the same rules do not apply if Biden drops out of the November election, and there is no mechanism to give the vice president an advantage in an open convention.
Instead, Harris would have to win a majority of delegates, like any other candidate.
Since she is already on the Democratic ticket, Harris could certainly be the front-runner. But her relatively low popularity among the American population may overshadow that advantage.
His net disapproval level is currently lower than that of Biden and Donald Trump, according to polls published by the organization FiveThirtyEight.
Who else could take Biden’s place?
Several Democrats have attempted to challenge Biden this election cycle, including Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and writer Marianne Williamson.
But both were risky attempts, and neither is likely to top any “finalist” list.
There is speculation that California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could be substitutes.
But neither candidate has shown any interest in replacing Biden.
“I will never turn my back on President Biden,” Newsom said Thursday in the Atlanta debate hall.
“I have spent a lot of time with him and I know what he has achieved in the last three and a half years. I know what he is capable of and I know his vision and I have no concerns,” he stressed.
Oblivious to the rumor mill and backroom conversations, Biden took part in a rally in North Carolina on Friday where he showed no signs of being willing to abandon the race.
“I plan to win this election,” Biden exclaimed, trying to silence the noise generated by his controversial intervention in the debate.
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