The president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, arrived in North Korea this Tuesday in what marks his first official visit to the Asian country in 24 years.
The president is expected to remain on North Korean soil for nine hours, where he will fulfill a busy agenda, which includes meetings with his counterpart Kim Jong-un.
Both leaders are preparing to sign several joint agreements and, according to the BBC, they will offer a press conference to discuss the balance of the day.
Putin’s last visit was in 2000, when Kim Jong-il, father of the current leader, was still in power.
But the leaders They met as recently as last September, only in the Russian city of Vladivostok. It was at that time that Kim Jong-un extended an invitation to Putin to visit his country.
And while last year’s meeting was a process to lay the foundations for the relationship between both nations, there are analysts who say that the new meeting will be used to show that the bond has advanced significantly.
The focus of the event is expected to focus on military cooperation between the two armies. and that it also serves as an opportunity to strengthen cooperation in various areas, including the economy, culture, agriculture, tourism and the social sphere.
In particular, it will be interesting to see to what extent President Putin will mention North Korea’s exchange of advanced weapons and possession of nuclear weapons.
The United States and Seoul have accused North Korea of supply Russia with artillery and other equipmentprobably in exchange for food and military aid.
Both countries deny the existence of an arms deal, but last year promised to strengthen military ties.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin has become a pariah to the West and has been looking for allies elsewhere.
After North Korea, the Russian leader will visit Vietnam, a long-time ally; Both countries are expected to discuss issues such as trade.
In that context, in this note we present 3 reasons that explain the rapprochement between Russia and North Korea.
1. Military cooperation: Russia needs weapons, North Korea needs technical support
Nearly two and a half years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the interdependence between North Korea and Russia continues to strengthen as they provide each other with supplies.
Nam Sung-wook, a professor at the Department of Unification and Diplomacy at Korea University, said that, At this point, the meeting agenda will focus on defining “how many more weapons manufactured by North Korea will be provided to Russia in the future.”
Others say that there is a possibility that this meeting will go beyond short-term agreements, focused on the supply of conventional weapons by North Korea, and establish the foundations for much closer military cooperation through of programs such as the joint development of weapons systems.
There is also speculation that North Korea may want more than just food and fuel in exchange for the weapons it provides to Russia.
In particular, Professor Nam predicted that North Korea – which failed to launch a military reconnaissance satellite last May – will use the meeting to discuss Russia’s support for its aerospace technology.
The explanation is that North Korea will need help from Russia, a space technology powerhouse, to successfully launch additional satellites.
North Korea is also predicted to seek technology support from Russia to increase the resolution of reconnaissance satellites and nuclear submarines.
Meanwhile, Professor Nam considered it unlikely that the issue of nuclear weapons sharing would ever become a public issue.
Currently, President Putin has been sensitive to the entry of Western weapons into Ukraine and their threat to the Russian mainland. He has even mentioned the possibility of using nuclear weapons.
However, since cooperation or exchange of nuclear weapons between the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia could generate great opposition from countries such as the US and China, it is expected that not much will be revealed about any nuclear discussions that occur. during the meeting.
2. Economic cooperation: Russia wants labor, North Korea wants to earn foreign currency
Russia and North Korea are also expected to discuss expanding economic cooperation.
Kang Dong-wan, professor of political science and diplomacy at Dong-A University, said that What North Korea needs most from Russia today is “workers’ income in foreign currency.”.
This means the possibility of North Korea sending additional workers to Russia may grow.
Russia also needs manpower to rebuild buildings due to the war. A significant number of workers are needed to recover from the damage caused by the war in Ukraine and rebuild the economy.
The Russian media Vedomosti quoted a diplomatic source as saying: “The two leaders could discuss whether to bring in migrant workers from North Korea, given that Russia is experiencing severe labor shortages due to troop mobilization and young people fleeing abroad after of the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, in accordance with the sanctions approved by the UN Security Council against North Korea, North Korean workers are prohibited from working abroad and all those who were previously abroad had to be repatriated before December 22, 2019.
Therefore, it is very likely that if Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, officially seeks to hire North Korean workers, it will create an uproar in the international community.
The focus will be on how the two countries will pursue economic cooperation in the face of opposition and diplomatic pressure from the international community.
3. Cultural exchange: will the tourist channel between North Korea and Russia open?
In February, Russia resumed group trips to North Korea, which had been suspended due to Covid-19.
Additionally, earlier this month, Passenger train service between North Korea and Russia resumed for the first time in about four years.
According to the government of Russia’s Primorsky Krai region, more than 400 Russian tourists visited North Korea between February and May of this year.
Russian travel agency Vostok Intru sells a five-day, four-night tour package to North Korea for $750 on its website.
Group trips to North Korea are also offered and can be booked until September.
The page offers various tourist products such as routes through Baekdu Mountain, a tour of the history of North Korea and an itinerary for the anniversary of the victory in the Fatherland Liberation War.
As for the reason behind the recent increase in tourism in the country, Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, explained: “This is because tourism is not simply a means to earn foreign currency, but also plays an important role in improving relationships through direct exchange between people.”
He added that Russians visiting North Korea are of great help in promoting friendly relations between the two countries.
The analysis is that as people-to-people visits increase, the interdependence between the two countries strengthens, which can help ease military tensions.
Professor Kim said visits by foreign tourists help alleviate North Korea’s image as a closed and dangerous country in the international community.
In this way, North Korean tourism is valued as an important means of social and cultural exchange and improvement of the international image beyond economic aspects.
However, there have been recent cases of group tour cancellations to North Korea.
A travel agency announced that a four-day group tour to the country scheduled for May 31 was canceled due to a lack of applicants.
Due to North Korea’s own characteristics – it lacks tourism infrastructure and restricts the free movement of foreigners – it is a difficult industry to expand.
Professor Kang Dong-wan pointed out that this summit between North Korea and Russia could be an opportunity to discuss tourism cooperation.
24 years later
On July 19, 2000, President Putin visited Pyongyang for the first time and met with President Kim Jong-il.
This was the first summit between Russia and North Korea since the end of the Cold War.
At that time, Russia dreamed of re-emerging in the international community and North Korea was trying to increase contact with the outside world after ending the “Arduous March” period.
At that time, the two leaders adopted the North Korea-Russia Joint Declaration, which contained references to mutual cooperation between the two countries on various issues, including the North Korean missile issue, and specified the contents of the treaty of friendship and cooperation.
In particular, in terms of military cooperation, it was agreed that “in the event of an invasion or dangerous situation, the two countries will contact each other immediately.”
Taking into account how much the relationship between North Korea and Russia has strengthened, it is speculated that the treaty – which has already gone from “understanding” to “alliance” – will be renewed at this meeting.
Professor Nam explained: “Putin’s previous visit to the Asian country occurred at a time when military provocations from North Korea were limited, but now, with the war in Ukraine as an opportunity, military ties between North Korea and Russia have grown stronger. “This summit will bring much denser cooperation than in the past.”
“It seems that it will almost reach the alliance level”, said.
He also pointed out that another big difference is that in the past North Korea did not have nuclear weapons, which is the case today.
“In a situation in which there is a reorganization of the international order, in which the US-centered unipolar system is weakened, Russia and North Korea are expected to seek new ways to cooperate for their respective interests.” national interests.”
He further added: “In a situation where inter-Korean relations are broken, there is a possibility that North Korea could come up with a new diplomatic strategy.”
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