“There is no more violence, there are more homicides,” insisted the Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, after recognizing that his Government will end with the highest number of murders in the history of the country.
His security strategy of “hugs, not bullets” has so far resulted in more than 180,000 intentional homicides.
Perception of insecurity
In 2024, the perception of insecurity has increased: according to the latest National Urban Public Safety Survey, 61 percent of the population believes that it is unsafe to live in their city. Hence, the management of the security crisis could define the outcome of the presidential elections on June 2.
How will the three main candidates, Claudia Sheinbaum, Xóchitl Gálvez and Jorge Álvarez Máynez, seek to stop the violence?
Far from representing “an accurate diagnosis of the reality that the country suffers in terms of the prevailing insecurity and impunity,” in the opinion of Fernando Escobar, researcher at the citizen organization Causa en Común, The candidates’ proposals are defined above all in relation to López Obrador’s project: as continuity or as an alternative.
Sheinbaum: promise of continuity
Claudia Sheinbaum, official candidate of the Let’s Keep Making History coalition, seeks to deepen the strategy of the current Government: address the causes of violence, consolidate the National Guard and reform the Judiciary.
Fernando Escobar, from Causa en Común, views this last point with a critical eye, “a reform so that the formation of the entire Judicial Branch goes through the polls. In practical terms, it will be a dismantling of the Judiciary and its replacement by a much more uncertain, more unstable structure, subject to the electoral-partisan game, and that opens avenues for new forms of corruption.”
For criminal analyst Sandra Gallegos, the fight against the finances of organized crime and the strategic dismantling of the supply chains of certain types of synthetic drugs are Sheinbaum’s proposals that could contribute to increasing security.
Gálvez: “peace” and “a strong hand”
The “insistence on peacebuilding may be the most notable aspect of the proposals of Gálvez”, candidate of the opposition coalition Fuerza y Corazón por México, maintains political scientist Escobar, in an interview with DW.
Gálvez is committed to limiting the participation of the Army in public security tasks and strengthening local police forces.. Additionally, he has pledged to put the National Guard under civilian command and has a focus on victims.
However, Escobar observes that The opposition candidate’s project is “openly and contradictorily punitive”since it also contemplates the frontal combat against organized crime, the construction of a maximum security mega prison or reaction teams against the “most dangerous” criminals.
“It seems that the message is ‘peace’ for Mexicans and ‘a strong hand’ for criminals, without endorsing how this is different from what has already failed in the past,” he warns.
Máynez: alternative project
Jorge Álvarez Máynez, the candidate of “Citizen Movement”, seeks to distance himself from the policies implemented by the predecessor governments.
According to the Causa en Común researcher, his security proposal “focuses on strengthening access to Justice”, on procedural justice for victims of crimes, justice in the form of social reintegration for convicted persons or justice in the form of drug legalization.
For the first time, Máynez “raises the possibility of a transition regarding the prohibitionist drug policy – the same one that has led, largely, in the security and justice crisis that has been experienced in Mexico during the last three six-year terms – towards a regulationist policy,” highlights lawyer Sandra Gallegos, in statements to DW.
Other types of violence
For her part, Daira Arana, general director of the Global Thought think tank, believes that the “most diversified” and “relevant” proposals are those of Xóchitl Gálvez, “which will have to be taken with caution in some aspects of a combative dimension,” and those of Jorge Máynez, “who proposes an axis of demilitarization and professionalization “It would be from the Police.”
In his analyses, Both Daira Arana and Sandra Gallegos miss that the candidates address other types of crime in a more in-depth way, such as that associated with gender violence or against freedom of the press.
Mexico, where 12 women are murdered a day, is also emerging “as the country with the highest number of murders of journalists in the Latin American region,” explains criminal analyst Gallegos. And she remembers that “the defense of human rights is also a matter of public security.”
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