It is the last border of the war in Gaza and may be about to be crossed by the Israeli army.
The Palestinian city of Rafah has been, since the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, a center of refuge for the civilian population and an entry point for humanitarian aid.
Located in the southern part of the Strip and with an area of about 55 square kilometers, this town represents the last access to Gaza that is not controlled by Israel and has been for decades an arrival point for assistance and an exit door for the sick. wounded and travelers.
After the start of the current war – triggered by the surprise attack that Hamas launched against Israel on October 7 in which 1,200 people were killed and some 240 were taken hostage, according to Israeli authorities – Rafah became the last refuge of more than a million Palestinianswho have been displaced from their cities due to shelling and ground incursion by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
As a result of the massive arrival of people, the population of Rafah increased from about 280,000 inhabitants to around 1 million 400,000 people, which is why it has been classified by the head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, Jan Egeland, as “the largest displaced persons camp in the world”.
But the status of this town as a refuge for those fleeing the war began to be questioned in February of this year, when Israel launched an operation on that city that left dozens of Palestinians dead and allowed two of the hostages to be rescued. power of Hamas.
At that time the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare the evacuation of civilians from Rafahwith a view to launching a major offensive there.
That announcement set off alarms in the international community, unleashing a cascade of criticism and warnings against Israel’s plans, which they feared would cause a “humanitarian catastrophe.”
Those fears were reactivated this Monday, when the IDF began distributing leaflets in Rafah with instructions for some 100,000 people to evacuate an area in the east of the city and move towards Khan Younis and Al-Mawasi.
Hours later, the IDF began a series of attacks on an area of that city in what it presented as a “limited operation.”
However, Rafah and what happens there has an importance that goes far beyond a local operation.
The “last bastion” of Hamas
“It is impossible to achieve the goal of the war without eliminating Hamas and leaving four Hamas battalions in Rafah”Netanyahu’s office said in a statement in February.
This is an argument on which the president has continued to insist during these months.
Israel maintains that thousands of Hamas fighters, as well as some of its leaders, are in Rafah.
He considers that he must end what he estimates are about 4 Hamas battalions present there to end his campaign aimed at eliminating the military power of that Palestinian group in Gaza.
It is estimated that some 200,000 Israelis had to leave their homes after the start of the war with Hamas and had to move to safer areas of the country, far from the border areas where they could be a target for this organization or its ally in Lebanon, the militia. Shiite Hezbollah.
Many of these people had already lived for years under the harassment of rockets that were launched from Gaza into Israel from time to time, a situation that the Netanyahu government seemed to tolerate for a time until eventually responding with a brief conflict that gave rise to a new ceasefire.
That was the status quo that came to an end with the October 7 attack, after which Neither the Israeli authorities nor many of its citizens consider that living with an armed Hamas ruling in Gaza is still an acceptable risk..
However, since the beginning of the conflict, numerous political and military analysts have warned that Netanyahu’s idea of eradicating Hamas is very difficult – or outright impossible – to achieve and that the human costs of trying to do so would be very high given the tunnels that Hamas built under Gaza for protection, as well as the fact that on the surface it is difficult to differentiate between combatants and civilians.
The Israeli government assures that its forces take great care not to affect the civilian population, which has not prevented some 34,000 people from dying in Gaza since the beginning of the conflict.the majority of them women and children, according to the Strip’s Health Ministry, controlled by Hamas.
BBC Security Correspondent Frank Gardner warns that it is not clear what Israel could achieve with a military operation on Rafah.
“The last five months of devastating conflict in Gaza have failed to bring about the long-awaited release of the hostages. The last time a significant number of hostages left Gaza alive was in November and it was as a result of an exchange, carefully negotiated by Qatar and Egypt.”, he points out.
“The Israeli army assesses that four Hamas battalions have survived above and below ground in Rafah and they want to finish the job as they have planned. But even if you manage to destroy these units, the chances of the hostages escaping unharmed are slim,” he adds.
Politics and alliances at play
Politically, What happens in Rafah could affect the negotiations that have been taking place for months with Hamaswith the mediation of Qatar and Egypt, to achieve a ceasefire, as well as the release of some of the kidnapped Israelis, and of Palestinians detained in Israel.
Precisely, this Monday Hamas announced that it accepted the armistice proposalwhich generated some expressions of joy and relief among the inhabitants of Gaza.
However, its true scope is not clear, as Netanyahu’s government said it was far from meeting Israel’s requirements and sent a negotiating commission to Cairo.
Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised the proposal that was on the table and stated that it was “extraordinarily generous” on Israel’s part, so Hamas should accept it.
However, the week passed without progress in the negotiations.
Beyond the war in Gaza, an Israeli military escalation in Rafah could increase tensions between the Netanyahu government and the United States, as President Joe Biden has made clear his rejection of an offensive taking place without first having a plan to protect the civilian population. present there.
According to the White House, Biden confirmed his position to Netanyahu during a telephone conversation they held this Monday.
An escalation in Rafah could also affect the US government’s efforts to reach an agreement for the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which – in fact – were already harmed by the Hamas attack on October 7.
To advance on that path, Riyadh hopes Israel will agree to end the war with Hamas and commit to a path toward the creation of a Palestinian state..
The normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is seen as an important advance not only because of its bilateral implications, but because both countries – like the United States – view Iran’s policy in the Middle East and its nuclear development plan with distrust.
Another vital relationship that could be damaged by an offensive on Rafah is that between Israel and Egypt, which was the first Arab state to recognize Israel.
Since the beginning of the current conflict, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s government has been concerned about the possibility of spillover violence in Gaza ends up driving Hamas fighters and leaders towards the Sinai.
Cairo does not look favorably on members of Hamas, an organization that originated as a branch of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and considers them a threat to its security.
Beyond politics is the impact on the humanitarian situation that a large-scale Israeli offensive in Rafah could have.
In recent months, there have been numerous voices in the international community that have warned that there was a danger that the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians taking refuge in that city would be pushed by an Israeli offensive towards the border with Egypt. The latter country has reiterated on numerous occasions that it does not intend to welcome Palestinian refugees into its territory.
Frank Gardner of the BBC considers this to be the “most worrying” aspect.
“Israel puts the number of Gazans potentially affected (by a possible Israeli offensive) at 100,000. Palestinian aid agencies say the number is closer to 250,000. Many of these people have already been displaced from their homes in the north of the territory.”, he points out.
Although Israel has presented this operation as a limited attack against specific Hamas targets in Rafah, there is always the risk of escalation.
In fact, Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian armed group allied with Hamas in Gaza, has been launching rockets into southern Israel.
The Israeli offensive has also put Jordan on alert, which is after Egypt the second Arab neighbor with whom Israel established diplomatic relations.
In a meeting with Biden at the White House, King Abdullah II warned that an Israeli offensive on Rafah could cause the conflict to spill over into the region and warned that could lead to a “new massacre””.
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