Panama and the canal that bears its name are like spring and flowers: it is almost impossible to think of one without the other.
The independence of the Central American country of Colombia in 1903 is directly linked to the project to build a passage between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans on the isthmus by the United States.
But beyond the famous sea route, There are other features that define Panama and they influence in different ways in the elections on Sunday, May 5 to designate its president, National Assembly and local authorities.
Here are five characteristics that help understand this country of 4.4 million inhabitants:
1. The economy and its cracks
In recent years, Panama had one of the most expanding economies in Latin America, with a GDP that grew 7.5% in 2023 according to the International Monetary Fund.
It is a leap driven by different factors apart from the channel, such as construction or internal trade.
The economic boom of recent decades in a context of political stability allowed the country to reduce poverty (from 48% in 1991 to 13% last year, according to the World Bank) while increasing employment and real wages of Panamanians, who They have one of the highest GDP per capita in the region.
“In addition to the canal, Panama has had in the last 35 years one of the most successful democracies and the most dynamic economies in Latin America,” says Harry Brown Araúz, researcher at the International Center for Political and Social Studies (CIEPS) in that country. .
“But gradually that success story has been running out”says the political scientist to BBC Mundo.
Panama now faces an economic slowdown, with GDP growth of 2.5% predicted by the IMF for this year, and is one of the most unequal countries in the region and on the planet according to the World Bank.
Poverty reaches almost a third in rural areas of the country and affects more than two thirds of those who live in indigenous regions, with limited access to water, sanitation or electricity.
Thus, two different Panamas seem to coexist on the isthmus. And conflict has also increased.
The country was shaken by the unprecedented protests in 2022 against the cost of living and inequality, and last year against a contract to exploit a copper mine, which was ultimately declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court and whose announced closure they attribute part of of the economic slowdown.
Experts like Brown Araúz note that None of these structural problems of Panamanian growth have been the subject of deep debate in the campaign.
2. The weight of the right
The polls for the Panamanian presidential elections place as the favorite the opponent José Raúl Mulino, president of former president Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014), who was disqualified from competing for being convicted of money laundering, took refuge in the Nicaraguan embassy and claims to be a politically persecuted.
Since the elections are defined by a simple majority in a single round, Mulino’s lead of more than 15 points in some polls seems comfortable. His candidacy has also just overcome an unconstitutionality lawsuit before the Supreme Court that had him on edge.
Both this former Minister of Public Security and other candidates with some possibility of winning, such as former President Martín Torrijos, Ricardo Lombana and Rómulo Roux, are located on the right of the political spectrum.
The only candidate with proposals typical of the Latin American left is Maribel Gordón, but she appears behind with close to 1% of voting intention in some surveys. His former party, the Broad Front for Democracy, disappeared after a resounding defeat in the last elections.
“Panamanian political life has been characterized by enormous ideological homogeneity to the center-right: all government plans and political parties are to the center-right,” Claire Nevache, political scientist and associate researcher at CIEPS, tells BBC Mundo.
There are different explanations for this phenomenon.
Some analysts who believe that the Panamanian left paid a cost due to the closeness of some of its leaders to the military dictatorship that existed between 1968 and 1989.
Others speak of the mark left on Panamanian political culture by the long civil and military presence in the country of the United States while it controlled the channel, until 1999.
And others estimate that free market ideas have broad support in Panama due to the revenues obtained from international trade that crosses the canal.
3. Transit country
The notion of Panama as a “transit country” has been raised over time by different actors, from rulers to businessmen. The current president, Laurentino Cortizo, used that definition during a UN General Assembly.
In fact, not only ships constantly pass through Panamanian territory through the canal, but also a growing flow of migrants who enter through the inhospitable Darien jungle on the border with Colombia on their way to the United States.
But both transits appear to face immediate challenges.
Although the immigration issue was absent in much of the campaign, Mulino proposed in the final stretch to close the passage of foreigners through Darién, without explaining exactly how he would do it.
On the other hand, doubts have arisen about the sustainability of the Panamanian economic model based on maritime passage.
“This model is in crisis for various reasons. and one of the first is climate changewhich makes the channel’s income difficult and increasingly uncertain,” warns Nevache.
He explains that a recent drought that forced traffic through the maritime corridor to be reduced raised big issues, such as how to provide water to the canal or “where to put priorities” in a country with almost a quarter of homes lacking permanent water during the day.
4. Corruption and money laundering
Panama has also attracted attention for corruption and money laundering problems.
The CPI 2023 corruption perception index in the public sector released in January by the NGO Transparency International ranked the Central American country in 108th place out of 180.
“The problem of corruption in Panama is systemic,” maintains Olga de Obaldía, executive director of the Foundation for the Development of Citizen Liberty, Panamanian chapter of Transparency International.
“We have a problem of stagnation in the fight against corruption,” the specialist tells BBC Mundo.
Unlike previous elections, he explains, this problem today is one of the biggest concerns of Panamanian voters according to recent surveys.
“It is very paradoxical that in a country where the majority of inhabitants say they are worried about corruption, that list (of Mulino with the support of Martinelli) registers the highest voting intention,” he observes.
“But that also means that there are 70% of voters who do not see that option as the main one,” he adds.
De Obaldía says that since the Panama Papers scandal, the great leak of documents on tax havens that in 2016 had the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca as the protagonist and spilled over to foreign personalities, The country made legislative changes that allowed it to leave the European Union’s “high risk” list for money laundering in March..
But he emphasizes that the services of specialized firms to create legal entities in different jurisdictions through which individuals with high purchasing power move capital “is something that has not stopped, neither in Panama nor in the world.”
5. The new demands
Analysts see as positive the way in which Panamanians have pushed for transformations in their country, against old “clientelist” schemes of power.
Brown Araúz highlights that those who protested last year against the mining contract, with a large participation of young people and women, They did it with high “environmental sensitivity” and knowing that their demand could cost the country close to 5% of GDP.
“People took to the streets aware that this would mean a short-term economic sacrifice, but it is a very rational long-term bet on survival,” he says.
“If we understand it as a tool of democracy, also in the long term we can be optimistic that Citizens have decided to take the reins of the future of democracy Panamanian.”
In the opinion of this political scientist and sociologist, there may be the most important fracture that emerged in the country.
“Panamanian citizens are looking for something more,” he explains. “And our political and economic elites have not been able to articulate a project that satisfies those most comprehensive aspirations of the population.”
Click here to read more stories from BBC News Mundo.
You can also follow us on Youtube, Instagram, TikTok, x, Facebook and in our new whatsapp channelwhere you will find breaking news and our best content.
And remember that you can receive notifications in our app. Download the latest version and activate them.
- Can the Panama Canal save itself?
- 5 keys to understanding the massive protests in Panama that have paralyzed the country
- The Latin American countries that grew the most and the least in 2023, according to the latest ECLAC report
- Why Panama and Colombia separated (and what role the United States played)