A single glance at the map of the Middle East is enough to realize Jordan’s awkward position.
This small Arab country is located on the route between Israel and Iran, two powers that hate each other and immersed in an escalation that threatens to provoke an open war in that region of the world.
The fight between the two has placed Amman in a devilish dilemma that has made evident the complex political and strategic balances in which a country that does not usually attract the attention of the world media has been managed for decades.
It did so last Saturday, when a rain of drones and missiles launched by Iran and its related militias was heading towards Israel to make it pay for the attack that destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus and cost the lives of several of its generals.
The Jordanian air forces launched to intercept the projectiles, in a decisive action to neutralize Tehran’s blow against Israel. It was the only Arab country to do so.
All observers expected such a reaction from American and British forces in the region, but the Jordanian response surprised many, including in Israel.
Despite being one of the few Arab countries that maintains formal relations with Israel, the Hashemite kingdom had been one of the strongest in condemning the Israeli military intervention in Gaza and those relationships are going through one of their worst moments in recent years.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Haysan Afami, accused Israel of committing “war crimes” in the strip and announced his country’s support to the genocide case that South Africa is pursuing in the International Court of Justice against Israel.
In November, Jordan withdrew its ambassador to Israel in protest at the actions of Israeli troops in Gaza.
And the Government stopped a bilateral agreement on water and solar energy.
It is estimated that around half of the Jordanian population are Palestinian refugees or descendants who remember the four wars that Jordan has faced with Israel since 1948.
Why then did their forces launch themselves to neutralize the Iranian attack against Israel?
Jordan, a dependent country in a devilish environment
With an area of just over 89,000 square kilometers and a population that barely exceeds eleven million inhabitants, Jordan is located on a desert plateau in the Middle East, one of the most historically conflictive areas on the planet.
With few natural resources at its disposal, Jordan relies heavily on international cooperation. It receives large contributions from the International Monetary Fund, the United States, the European Union and the rich monarchies of the Gulf.
For its security in an environment of conflicting actors it also depends on foreign aid.
King Abdullah, who effectively directs the country’s politics, has cultivated Washington’s friendship and their international partners, as did their predecessors of the Hashemite dynasty.
Ghaith Al-Omari, from the Washington Institute, an analysis center specialized in the Middle East, told BBC Mundo that “the decision to act against the Iranian attack must have weighed on the desire to present itself to the United States as the most reliable Arab partner.” .
“Despite all the rhetoric, Jordan sees Israel as the main guarantor of its security against external actors along with the United States,” adds the expert.
“Israel is vital to Jordan’s security and vice versa. It is something assumed in the military doctrine of both countries and that is why they have been cooperating in defense for years,” he noted.
This cooperation has consisted, according to the expert, in the sharing of intelligence information and in the help provided by the Israeli Army to Jordan to attack targets in neighboring Syria that it could not have reached by its own means.
How have relations between Jordan and Israel been?
Jordan was one of the Arab countries that fought several wars against Israel after the establishment of that State in the territories of the former British Mandate of Palestine in 1948.
The successive conflicts and the Israeli occupation caused the arrival of a large number of Palestinian refugees to Jordan, which still explains today that, as Al-Omari says, “the Palestinian problem is seen as a matter of internal rather than international politics” and that There is widespread rejection of Israel in Jordanian society.
But After the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993 between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization to end the conflict between the two, Amman was encouraged to sign its own peace treaty with Israel.thus giving character to relationships that had been taking place unofficially for a long time.
Jordan thus became the second Arab country to establish relations with Israel and since then has lived navigating the contradiction caused by the weight that the Palestinian cause continues to have in its public opinion and the need for Israeli and American military cooperation to guarantee its defense in an environment as problematic as the Middle East.
The latest example of that difficult balance came in the response to the Iranian attack on Saturday.
The Jordanian government presented the interception of Iranian missiles and drones as a defense of airspace essential to avoid harm to the Jordanian population, and was careful to express any sign of solidarity or sympathy with Israel.
The leaders in Amman seem to be aware of the background and the demonstrations in front of the Israeli embassy that have been demanding an end to the intervention in Gaza for months.
But in reality, according to Al-Omari, “intercepting the Iranian missiles was an easy decision to make.”
Because?
Because if there is a country more unpopular than Israel in Jordan, it is Iran.
What are relations between Jordan and Iran like?
Al-Omari says that “the view of Iran in Jordan currently is very negative.”
“The crimes and abuses committed in the Syrian war by groups supported by Tehran are remembered and it is believed that they are also trying to destabilize Jordan as part of their regional strategy against Israel and the United States.”
Tehran has been sponsoring similar armed organizations for years in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, in what it calls the “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States. The Lebanese Hezbollah is the most prominent of them, but they are a whole host of irregular groups that have Israel as their main enemy.
The main concern of the Jordanian authorities is that Iran will try to replicate that model in Jordan as well.
That is why recent statements by Abu Ali al Askari, spokesman for Iraq’s pro-Iran militia Kataeb Hezbollah, caused particular alarm, assuring that his group is in a position to supply weapons, including missiles and anti-tank projectiles, for 12,000 fighters in Jordan who could attend. in defense of “the Palestinian brothers.”
Senior Iranian leaders have praised themselves in the past for their influence in Beirut, Damascus and Baghdad, capitals of Arab states close to Israel, and the Jordanian government is concerned that Tehran wants to add Amman to that list.
Al-Omari indicates that “in recent years, arms and drug smuggling from Iran has increased; Now it has reached a large volume and this generates concern.”
And then there is a religious factor.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has Shi’ism as its official religion, and supports and finances Shi’ite religious organizations in other countries. His attempts to do so in Jordan have also generated great rejection in a country where the vast majority is Sunni, the other main branch of Islam.
What Jordan would do if Israel responds to Iran
Although it stopped the first volley against it, Israel cannot take Jordan’s unconditional support for granted in the fight with Iran.
In several Arab countries, voices have been raised against King Abdullah on social networks, accusing him of collaborating with the “enemy.” One of the most circulated memes presented him in a montage dressed in the uniform of the Israeli Army.
Jordan’s difficult balance as one of the few Arab countries to recognize Israel has become more difficult under Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
The Jordanian crown manages through a religious foundation the Esplanade of the Mosques, the space where the sacred places for Muslims are concentrated in the disputed Jerusalem, and the publication in various media of alleged conversations between Netanyahu and Prince Mohamed Bin Salmán , from Saudi Arabia, to include it in the control of the sacred site caused suspicion in Amman.
Previously, in 2017, Netanyahu had received as a hero in Israel a security guard at the Israeli embassy in Amman who killed two Jordanians, according to the Israeli version, after being attacked by one of them, which outraged the Jordanian government.
More recently, the Jordanian government has put the brakes on a bilateral agreement on water and solar energy use.
But the most serious tensions seem to be yet to come.
If, as one of its senior military commanders has announced, Israel responds to the Iranian attack over the weekend, and does so by launching projectiles that cross Jordanian airspace, your government may find itself in an even more difficult position than that caused by the Iranian attack.
“That would create serious political problems for the government, because it cannot allow people to see that it prevented Iran’s attack, but it does allow Israel’s.”
Jordan’s dilemma could worsen as the confrontation between Israel and Iran intensifies.
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