This Friday the electoral campaign begins in Mexico ahead of the presidential elections on June 2 in which two women and one man will compete to replace Andrés Manuel López Obrador in office.
However, all polls predict with little doubt that, during the next six years, Mexico will be led by a female president for the first time in its history.
Who was head of government of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, She is the clear favorite to win as a candidate for the ruling bloc of Morena, the Labor Party and the Green Party. Recent polls give her an average of around 60% of the votes, which is about double what her main competitor would achieve.
In that second place is the former senator Xóchitl Gálvez, who until months ago was practically unknown but who against all odds achieved the support of the parties that make up the Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition – formed by the traditional parties PAN, PRI and PRD – after five years of an almost non-existent and fragmented opposition .
Finally, there is Jorge Álvarez Máynez, candidate of the Citizen Movement – a formation that governs in two of the states with the strongest economies in the country – but in the polls does not exceed 3-10% of voting intention.
“This competition is historic because there has never been a female president in Mexico,” highlights the political analyst. Palmira Tapia.
“And from that very symbolic fact, we could expect a different way of governing based on the fact that being a woman does make a difference in terms of priorities for the country,” she adds.
“Both had to face and defeat a system made by and for men. That two women have made their way in this contact sport as rough as Mexican politics has great merit that must be valued,” agrees the expert in political communication. Luis Antonio Espino.
But Who are and what do the candidates to assume the presidency of Mexico propose from next October 1?
Sheinbaum, AMLO’s favorite
Claudia Sheinbaum was born 61 years ago in Mexico City. She has a technical profile with a degree in Physics and a master’s degree and doctorate in Engineering.
For Espino, “it is a paradox that the candidate to succeed a mass social leader like López Obrador be a technocrat, which is precisely what populism rejects.”
His first position in politics came precisely by the hand of the current Mexican president, when he was head of government of the capital for the PRD and she served as Secretary of the Environment since 2000.
Since then she became one of his closest allies and accompanied him in each of his attempts to become president of the country. Sheinbaum was an active part of the formation of Morena in 2014, and just a year later she became head of the Tlalpan delegation in the country’s capital as a representative of said party.
In 2018 it marked a milestone by being the first woman elected as head of government of Mexico City. One of his strengths in this position was, precisely, his technical knowledge that he knew how to apply in public policies, social and educational programs.
However, one of the biggest controversies it faced was probably the accusations of lack of subway maintenance after a section of line 12 collapsed in 2021 and caused the death of 26 people.
Last year, Sheinbaum left this position to focus on his presidential aspirations.
Be considered as López Obrador’s favorite It is one of her main advantages among Morena’s most loyal voters, but it also earned her criticism from those who accuse her of not having her own identity or ever questioning any results of the current Mexican government.
“One of her mottos, ‘Continuity with its own seal’, is a totally contradictory phrase” that only tried to break that impression about her, says Espino in conversation with BBC Mundo.
Those responsible for her campaign tried to counteract her serious and somewhat distant image from the population with more appearances on social networks, where she has been seen smiling making TikToks or playing the guitar.
Gálvez, the surprise of the opposition
Xóchitl Gálvez was born 61 years ago in a small town in the state of Hidalgo. He has always highlighted his indigenous and humble origins—he said that he sold gelatin while he was a high school student—which have been questioned by opponents and some old acquaintances.
An engineer by training, she created several companies in the sector for which she received several awards, as well as a foundation that supports indigenous communities with high rates of malnutrition and limited economic resources.
He entered politics in 2003 with the help of former PAN president Vicente Fox. and was appointed director of the National Commission for the Development of Indigenous Peoples. She tried to be governor of her native Hidalgo in 2010, but came in second at the head of the PAN-PRD coalition.
Five years later she managed to be elected head of the Miguel Hidalgo delegation in Mexico City, and since 2018 she has been a senator for the PAN.
Despite his resume, his name was almost unknown to the vast majority of Mexicans until just a few months ago. Last year, she gained media attention when she tried to intervene—unsuccessfully—at the morning conference of President López Obrador, who had accused her of wanting to suppress social programs. She flatly denied it.
Since then His popularity grew like foam until he stood out in the opposition bloc with a much less conservative speech. than most of those who were its internal competitors.
Gálvez has been seen from riding a bicycle to addressing his followers with a fresh tone full of self-confidence with which he wanted to convey greater authenticity.
“I would say that he has an ‘all-terrain’ ability to communicate. He knows how to prepare himself in the technical aspects when he has to talk about a serious topic. But when you have to communicate with people, without being superficial, she becomes friendly and happy, saying things how he feels them and with a language that connects with people,” reflects consultant Espino.
This strategy of showing a much less traditional profile than that of other PAN-PRI-PRD personalities was evident when, at the celebration of her official appointment, Gálvez appeared accompanied by people as diverse as a mother searching for the disappeared, an enterprising woman and a representative of indigenous communities.
Analysts believe that this broader and more inclusive discourse responds to the simple fact that the ‘hard voter’ in her political coalition is going to support her anyway, so that there is a change of government. But that would not be enough for him to win, so he must direct his efforts to also attract undecided people or those disenchanted with López Obrador’s six-year term.
Tapia believes that “the curious thing with Gálvez is that he is competing with a proposal very similar to the one that gave López Obrador success of advocating for the poor, social policies, against corruption… although somewhat more sweetened, so that it is also accepted by those economic sectors that disapprove of the president’s policies.”
However, “we could foresee the return of some policies more in line with the neoliberal model that have been tried in the country. I am still not so sure to what extent she will want to reverse the way in which Mexico has been governed,” adds the political scientist in an interview with BBC Mundo.
Álvarez Máynez, the great unknown
Equally surprising was the election of Jorge Álvarez Máynez as a candidate for the Citizen Movement (MC), although in his case, his name became known to the general public. literally from one day to the next at the beginning of this year.
The candidate planned until recently had been Samuel García, the media-friendly governor of the state of Nuevo León, who had even begun to carry out some electoral events. However, the great political crisis that arose when the opposition parties in Congress named an interim governor sympathetic to them led García to renounce his presidential aspirations and return to his position.
At only 38 years old, Álvarez Máynez was the coordinator of that fleeting García campaign and was then the leader of the MC bench in the Chamber of Deputies, from where he focused on trying to improve citizens’ rights such as expanding maternity leaves. and paternity or vacation days.
With a degree in International Relations and several master’s degrees, he is originally from the state of Zacatecas and the son of one of the co-founders of the state Communist Party. At a very young age he began military service in the PRD, before becoming a local deputy for the PRI and joining the ranks of MC in 2013, where he held various positions.
Her great disadvantage compared to her competitors for the presidency is undoubtedly the fact that still be a great unknown to the majority of the country after having been elected candidate less than two months ago.
In his favor, his party tries to highlight him as the option of the new generations and the alternative for the future of Mexico, by leading a team with new people and ideas that he has not had the opportunity to govern until now.
Challenges and proposals
Both experts and polls agree without a doubt in placing Sheinbaum and Gálvez as the candidates with the greatest chance of winning in June, which is why both have made efforts in recent months to try to stand out from their competitors and face their own challenges.
“Sheinbaum’s challenge is undoubtedly to connect, because He is not a person who is close or has charisma. And, above all, communicate what seal she would put on her government so as not to be seen only as an extension of López Obrador or someone who is being controlled by him,” says Espino.
Faced with the challenges of closeness and autonomy of the former head of government of Mexico City, Gálvez will have to work to achieve differentiation from other names in the opposition and greater unity between diverse groups.
“Your challenge is to reach an audience that He viscerally rejects opposition parties and convinces them that he is different. And on the other hand, it must continue working to bring together and be attractive to very diverse groups in society that are sometimes even in conflict with each other: business people, indigenous peoples, women, people with a traditional profile, progressive young people… ”, adds the expert.
At the start of the campaign, Gálvez emphasized security by proposing to demilitarize the country, return the National Guard to civilian status, and remove the Army from the construction of public works to focus on national security tasks.
“Hugs to criminals are over,” He criticized in reference to one of the best-known phrases of López Obrador, who during his six-year term opted for “hugs, not bullets” to confront crime.
For his part, Sheinbaum announced that this Friday he will present a list of 100 priority objectives for what would be his next government, thus following the example of López Obrador, who on his first day as president announced a hundred commitments.
There is also great expectation to see what their positions will be. regarding gender policies in a country where there are ten femicides a day and where the latest initiatives have failed to eradicate the violence against women that bleeds Mexico.
“Although Sheinbaum – which is what we have seen until recently in a government position – does not champion an openly feminist policy, there have been important advances in the capital and, beyond speeches, that is what is important,” says Tapia.
“In this sense, the competition between two women for the presidency represents a very powerful message, especially for the new generations. There’s no doubt”, concludes.
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