Two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, there is no reason to believe that the conflict will end soon.
Neither Ukraine nor Russia, nor key allies on either side, see grounds for a peace deal.
Kyiv insists that its internationally recognized borders must be restored and that it will expel Russian troops, while Moscow’s position remains that Ukraine is not a country and Russian forces will continue to press until their objectives are achieved.
Below we look at what is currently happening and where this conflict could go in the future.
1. Who is winning?
During the winter there have been fierce fighting that has cost many lives on both sides.
The front line stretches for 1,000 kilometers and its shape has changed little since autumn 2022.
Within months of the full-scale invasion two years ago, Ukraine had pushed back Russian forces from the north and around the capital, Kyiv. That same year he retook large areas of territory in the east and south.
But now, Russian forces are entrenched with powerful fortifications and the Ukrainians say their ammunition is running out.
Many see a scenario of military stalemate, including both the recently ousted Ukrainian military commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and several pro-Kremlin Russian military bloggers.
In mid-February, Ukrainian troops withdrew from the city of Avdiivkain the east, for which they had long fought.
Russian forces celebrated it as a major victory, as Avdiivka is strategically located and can potentially open routes to deeper invasion.
Kyiv said the withdrawal was aimed at preserving the lives of its soldiers and made no secret that its forces were outnumbered and outgunned.
That was Russia’s biggest advance since it captured Bakhmut last May.
But Avdiivka is just 20 kilometers northwest of Donetsk, the Ukrainian city occupied by Russia since 2014.
Such a small advance is a far cry from Russia’s initial February 2022 ambition to take Kyiv “in three days,” which was shared by military bloggers and repeated by state propaganda.
At the moment, around 18% of Ukrainian territory remains under Russian occupationincluding the Crimean peninsula annexed in 2014, and much of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east that Russia captured soon after.
2. Is support for Ukraine declining?
Over the past two years, Ukraine’s allies have sent it huge amounts of military, financial and humanitarian aid: almost $92 billion from European Union institutions and $73 billion from the United States through January 2024, according to the Kiel Institute for the worldwide economy.
Tanks, air defenses and long-range artillery supplied by the West They have helped Ukraine substantially.
But the flow of aid has slowed in recent months, amid debate over how long allies can realistically support Ukraine.
In the United States, a new $60 billion package is stalled in Congress, caught in internal political disputes.
And there is concern among Ukraine supporters that U.S. support will dry up if Donald Trump returns to the White House in November’s presidential election.
In the EU in February, a $54 billion aid package was approved after many discussions and negotiations, especially with Hungary, whose Prime Minister, Victor Orban, He is an ally of Putin who is openly opposed to supporting Ukraine.
Furthermore, the EU is on track to deliver only about half of the million artillery shells it intended to provide to Kyiv by the end of March 2024.
Among Russia’s supporters is neighboring Belarus, whose territory and airspace have been used to access Ukraine.
Iran has been supplying Russia with Shahed drones, the US and EU say, although Iran only admits to supplying Russia with a small number of drones before the war.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have proven effective in hitting targets in Ukraine, in a war where drones are in demand from both sides due to their ability to evade air defenses.
Sanctions have not worked as well as Western countries had hoped and Russia has been able to continue selling its oil and obtaining parts and components for its military industry.
China is not believed to be providing arms to either side. In general, it has followed a careful diplomatic line regarding this war, without condemning the Russian invasion but also not supporting Moscow militarily, although both Beijing and India have continued to buy Russian oil.
Both Russia and Ukraine have also made great efforts to court developing countries, with numerous diplomatic visits to Africa and Latin America.
3. Have Russia’s goals changed?
Many believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin he still wants all of Ukraine.
In his recent interview with American host Tucker Carlson, the Russian president once again exposed his distorted view of history and the conflict.
He has long maintained, without offering solid evidence, that civilians in Ukraine, especially in the eastern Donbas region, need Russian protection.
Before the war, he wrote a long essay in which he denied the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state and said that Russians and Ukrainians were “one people.”
In December 2023, he said that his goals for what Russia calls its “special military operation” had not changedincluding the “denazification” of Ukraine, which is based on unfounded claims about the influence of the far right in that country.
He also says he wants “demilitarization” and a “neutral” Ukraine, and continues to criticize NATO’s expansion of influence eastward.
As an independent state, Ukraine never belonged to any military alliance.
His political goals included joining the European Union and he was in talks for a closer alliance with NATO, which now appears closer than at the start of the war.
These goals sought to strengthen Ukraine’s statehood and protect it from being drawn into any geopolitical project to restore the Soviet Union in some form.
4. How could the war end?
With neither side likely to surrender and Putin determined to remain in power, analysts’ predictions tend to assume a protracted war.
Global security think tank Globsec collected the opinions of dozens of experts to assess the likelihood of different outcomes.
Your most likely scenario It was a war of attrition that would last beyond 2025, with heavy casualties on both sides and Ukraine still dependent on weapons supplies from its allies.
The second scenario included possible conflict escalations in other parts of the world, such as the Middle East, China-Taiwan and the Balkans, with Russia seeking to increase tensions.
Two other potential scenarios, both considered equally likely, were that Ukraine made some military gains but no agreement was reached to end the war, or that support from Ukraine’s allies dwindled and put pressure on it to reach a negotiated settlement.
However, it persists uncertainty over both the potential impact of the US presidential election as well as how other wars, especially the conflict between Israel and Hamas, will affect the priorities and loyalties of Ukraine and Russia’s supporters.
5. Could the conflict spread further?
In mid-February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that keeping Ukraine in an “artificial deficit” of weapons would help Russia.
He told an international security conference in Munich that Putin would make the next few years “catastrophic” for many more countries if the Western world did not stand up to him.
The Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank says Russia has successfully transitioned its economy and defense industry to larger-scale military production and is preparing for a long war.
They claim that Europe is not keeping pace, a concern also raised by Poland’s foreign minister.
European countries – included in the warnings of the German Foreign Minister and the Estonian intelligence services – recently expressed fears of that Russia could attack a NATO country in the next decade.
This has pushed NATO and the EU to intensify their future planning, both in terms of military capabilities and the preparation of societies to live in a very different world.
Click to read more stories from BBC News Mundo.
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