Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the fate of Alexei Navalny was the reason for the introduction of European and American sanctions and remained a major focus of disagreement between the Kremlin and Western countries. But after two years of war everything has changed: what consequences could the death of the opponent have for Moscow?
Four years ago, Navalny’s poisoning ruined Russia’s relations with Germany, where the politician was receiving treatment. However, Berlin still wanted to maintain active trade with Russia and continued to buy its gas, despite the occupation of Crimea and the fighting in eastern Ukraine.
After meeting Vladimir Putin in Geneva, Switzerland, in 2021, US President Joe Biden said he had threatened his Russian counterpart with “devastating consequences” if Navalny died in prison.
On Friday, Biden gave a short speech in which he paid tribute to the bravery of the Russian opposition leader.
“Putin is responsible for Navalny’s death”Biden said.
However, when asked by a reporter whether the promised destructive consequences would occur, the president responded: “That was three years ago. They have already suffered many consequences since then.”
With nothing in the arsenal
It is now difficult to imagine sanctions more severe than those already imposed because of the war in Ukraine, said Ben Noble, an associate professor of Russian politics at University College London and co-author of a biography of Navalny.
The expert predicted harsh pronouncements from European capitals, and perhaps new symbolic sanctions.
“It is important for Western countries to make tough statements and at least verbally hold the Kremlin accountable, although that will not bring Navalny back,” he said.
There have already been pronouncements of this type: in addition to Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Vladimir Putin must “answer for what he did,” and French President Emmanuel Macron blamed Russian authorities for Navalny’s death.
More sanctions?
Navalny’s death in a Russian prison could have significantly affected Moscow’s relations with the European Union (EU) in the recent past, but not now, said Alex Clarkson, a specialist in European politics and professor at King’s College London.
“Five years ago, this could have led the EU to abandon attempts at dialogue and move to tougher sanctions. But all those bridges have already been burnedClarkson said.
After almost two years of the Russian war in Ukraine, relations between the Kremlin and the EU countries (with the exception of Hungary) are irreparably damaged, the political scientist explained.
European countries are slowly but steadily increasing production of ammunition for the Ukrainian military and discussing how they can continue supporting Kyiv without American involvement.
In total, as of January this year, the EU (as a bloc and as individual countries) has allocated or promised to allocate $155 billion in military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
“I can’t imagine what else Europeans can do”Clarkson added.
Since 2022, Russia has surpassed Iran and North Korea in the number of trade, financial and personal sanctions imposed on it.
The West and its allies Moscow has been cut off from credit, investment and technology; and they have closed their markets to Russian exports, frozen the country’s foreign exchange reserves and are now discussing whether they can transfer them to Ukraine.
Hundreds of foreign companies have stopped operating in Russia, while yachts, mansions and accounts of Russian officials and oligarchs have been frozen.
Clarkson warned that a complete break with the West could free the hands of Russian authorities to intensify repression against their opponents within the country.
“This reminds me of how some regimes in the Middle East, such as that of Hafez al-Assad (in Syria) or Saddam Hussein (in Iraq), intensified the persecution against the opposition when relations with Europe and especially with the United States deteriorated. They deteriorated,” he recalled.
Goodbye to normalization
Navalny’s death may also affect political debates within Europe, where many far-right parties and movements are united in their criticism of the EU but take different positions on Russia.
“The two key pro-Russian movements are Alternative for Germany and the Austrian FPÖ (Freedom Party)”Clarkson mentioned.
And if Alternative for Germany is experiencing serious problems after a series of scandals, in the case of the far-right Freedom Party, polls indicate that it leads voting intentions in the Austrian Parliament elections to be held this fall.
The political scientist considered that this is the most serious challenge for European unity regarding the issue of Ukraine and the confrontation with Russia. Even greater than, for example, that of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, whose opposition EU leaders are already accustomed to overcoming.
At the same time, Navalny’s death is a inconvenient fact for the European pro-Russian formationssince it will be more difficult for them to show that they sympathize with a country where the main opposition leader has just died in prison.
Navalny’s case may also affect the campaign for the US presidential elections in November, acknowledged Timothy Fry, a professor at Columbia University and an expert on post-Soviet countries.
“It will be a serious obstacle to the Trump team’s efforts to normalize Russia”said Frye.
According to the expert, Donald Trump will find it more difficult to convince American society and Washington elites of the need for a softer stance towards the Kremlin.
Fry believes the developments could push congressional Republicans to pass a new aid package for Ukraine after nearly two months of discussions.
Initially, Republicans said they first wanted to stop the record flow of migrants across their own border and then help countries overseas. But when Democrats agreed to a compromise, Trump urged his party not to accept the deal.
The former president and almost certain Republican presidential candidate also opposed free assistance, stating that support for other countries can only come in the form of loans. Now the fate of aid to Ukraine depends on whether Republican congressmen decide to disobey the party leader.
“Support for Ukraine remains quite popular in the US. Only Trump’s intervention prevents Congress from approving a new aid package. If it weren’t for Trump’s position, I think the package would have already been approved”, assured the political scientist.
Fry noted that the leadership of the Republican Party differs from Trump in their position on Russia. But rather than washing dirty laundry in public, senior Republicans are trying to iron out those differences, but he admitted that Navalny’s death will make this more difficult to achieve.
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