The presidents of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, and of Guyana, Irfaan Ali, agreed this Saturday to hold a meeting over the territorial dispute that both countries have in Essequibo.
The meeting will be held on Thursday in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the country that holds the pro tempore presidency of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac).
The announcement came at a time of growing tension between Venezuela and Guyanaafter a majority of Venezuelans voted last Sunday in a questioned referendum in favor of the annexation of the Essequibo region to his country.
Maduro then requested that a law be approved to declare the creation of a Venezuelan state in Essequibo and a “comprehensive defense zone of Guayana Esequiba” in the town of Tumeremo.
The meeting between the two governments, mediated by several interlocutors, was first reported by Maduro and confirmed by Ali.
“President Ali was approached today by the Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines to a meeting with President Maduro on Thursday in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines which will be observed by Brazil, Caricom [Comunidad del Caribe] and a UN undersecretary general. “President Ali agreed to hold this meeting,” Guyana’s presidency said in a statement.
Ali “reiterated that Guyana’s land border is not subject to discussion as it is currently before the ICJ [Corte Internacional de Justicia de La Haya] and, when determined, will be fully respected by Guyana.”
“The president, on numerous occasions, has made it explicitly clear that the case before the ICJ will not be a topic for bilateral discussions,” he said.
Earlier on Saturday, Maduro had published on his X account (formerly known as Twitter) that he had held telephone conversations with the president of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and with the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silvaand that he accepted a meeting with the Guyanese authorities.
Brazil shares borders with Guyana and Venezuela.
“In these conversations, the proposal was received to hold a high-level meeting with the Cooperative Republic of Guyana, which will be announced in the coming days,” said the president of Venezuela.
He added that “he accepts this call with approval and commitment.”
Maduro also said that he spoke with the Secretary General of the UN, António Guterres, who advocated for dialogue between the parties, according to his account.
Brazil asks Venezuela to avoid “unilateral measures”
The Brazilian president’s office was the first to speak publicly after Saturday’s telephone communications and said that Lula da Silva urged Maduro to avoid “unilateral measures” that could aggravate the territorial dispute he has with Guyana.
According to the Brazilian government’s version, Lula raised with Maduro the growing concern in South America about the situation and made reference to the joint declaration of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay so that both parties can seek “a peaceful resolution.”
“We are a region of peace”Lula told Maduro, according to the statement.
The Brazilian leader had said last Tuesday that in 2024 will visit Guyana, where he will participate in the meeting that will bring together the countries that make up Caricom.
Rising tensions led Brazil, which borders Venezuela and Guyana, to reinforce the presence of its troops on the border.
“The Brazilian Ministry of Defense has been monitoring the situation. Defensive actions have intensified in the northern border region of the country, promoting a greater military presence“Brazilian government sources said the week before the referendum.
“Fear of war”
Brazil confirmed the sending 28 armored vehicles to the state of Roraima, which is on alert because it shares a border with countries in conflict.
Although the deployment of these vehicles was already planned for operations against illegal mining in the area, the Brazilian Ministry of Defense announced that they will be available in the event of an eventual escalation of the conflict.
Brazil wants to send a clear message to Venezuela about the unfeasibility of escalating the crisis with Guyana, according to diplomatic sources consulted by BBC News Brazil.
The president of Brazil had already said last Sunday that he hoped there was “common sense.”
“What South America does not need is confusion. We can’t keep thinking about fighting. I hope that common sense prevails, on the side of Venezuela and Guyana,” said Lula da Silva.
Although the government says that it does not believe that the escalation of the conflict will end in a military confrontation, Venezuela’s position worries the Brazilian Foreign Ministry because it could put the tradition of peaceful conflict resolution territories in South America.
“Humanity should be afraid of war. War only takes place when common sense is lacking. A conversation is worth more than a war,” the Brazilian president told the press.
“If there is something we need to grow and improve the lives of our people, it is to keep our heads down, work hard to improve the lives of our people and not think about fighting, not making up stories,” he added.
Brazil’s position
For Brazil, the concern is not new.
Already on November 9, the presidents of Brazil and Guyana spoke by videoconference and, according to a Brazilian diplomat consulted by BBC News Brazil, the Guyanese president expressed his concern about the referendum in Venezuela to his Brazilian counterpart.
Two weeks later, on November 22, Brazil decided to send ambassador Celso Amorim to Caracashis special advisor for international affairs, who met with Nicolás Maduro in the Venezuelan capital.
At the meeting, according to the same sources, Maduro tried to reassure Amorim, who showed concern about the matter and reinforced his position that the dispute should be resolved peacefully.
A few days later, members of the Brazilian Foreign Affairs and Defense ministries began to jointly analyze the crisis in the region.
Based on this analysis, the Ministry of Defense published a note on Wednesday prior to the referendum announcing the intensification of defensive actions on the border.
Lula and the Guyanese president were scheduled to meet a few days ago in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, during his visit to the country on the occasion of the UN climate summit (COP 28), but the bilateral meeting did not take place.
Brazil and Guyana – which have maintained diplomatic relations since 1968, two years after the declaration of independence of the former British colony – have had a good relationship for some time.
Brazil and Guyana share a 1,605 km border with a land connection through the bridge over the Tacutu River, inaugurated in 2009, and which is key for communication between the two countries.
The border between Venezuela and the Essequibo region is predominantly made up of dense forests, making the movement of troops and armored vehicles difficult.
For Augusto Teixeira, visiting professor at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, the few areas that would be available on the border for a Venezuelan incursion only allow the use of a few foot infantry forces.
Relations between Brazil and Guyana deepened starting in the 1990s with the growing number of Brazilians who took up residence in the neighboring country, according to the Brazilian Foreign Ministry.
Brazil estimates that some 300,000 people live in Essequibo and that a conflict in the area could have economic and social repercussions in nearby Brazilian regions.
An element that also worries the Brazilian government is the uncertainty about the decision-making process within the Maduro government.
Shortly after last Friday the International Court of Justice ordered Venezuela not to take any measure “that modifies the situation that currently prevails” in the territory in Essequibo, Maduro wrote on social networks that he does not recognize the court as an instrument to resolve the dispute with Guyana and once again called on the population to participate in the referendum held on Sunday.
“They cannot attack the right of the Venezuelan community to express themselves through voting,” Maduro said at the time.
The fear among part of Brazilian diplomacy is that Maduro politically exploits the dispute over the Essequibo ahead of the 2024 presidential elections.
The military response
International relations experts interviewed by BBC News Brazil are divided on the possibility that the crisis around the Essequibo will lead to a armed conflict.
For researcher Lucas Carlos Lima, from the Federal University of Minas Gerais, the cost for Venezuela is too high for this option to be viable.
“If we do so, Venezuela would be violating international law and could generate different reactions within the international community and the countries of the region,” Lima said.
Diplomats interviewed by BBC News Brazil said that Lula’s government has been sending clear messages to the Venezuelan government about the impossibility of escalating the crisis with Guyana.
“Our common commitment to the integration of South America is to reiterate to each of our twelve countries our commitment to the peaceful resolution of disputes,” said Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira.
For Lucas Carlos Lima, Brazil has tried to avoid an increase in tensions in the region.
“Brazil also has part of its borders with Guyana determined by arbitration and does not want this type of peaceful agreement to become a dispute,” said the specialist.
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