Bernardo Arévalo’s rise to the top of power in Guatemala has become an obstacle course that not even his broad electoral victory completely eliminated.
After being elected Guatemalan president in a runoff on August 20 with 60.9% support and with an anti-corruption speech, Arévalo has denounced an attempted “coup d’état” to prevent him from assuming office on January 14.
This 65-year-old sociologist and diplomat denounces that attempts to circumvent the electoral results by corrupt public officials include the suspension of the legal status of the Seed Movementthe progressive party co-founded by him.
The Public Ministry assures that there are irregularities in the constitution of the president-elect’s party.
Arévalo points specifically to the attorney general Consuelo Porraswhom he asks to resign after ordering the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to be raided alleging alleged anomalies in the elections won by Arévalo.
Porras has been included by the United States on a list of corrupt and undemocratic actors for her controversial management, but she has the support of the current president, Alejandro Giammattei.
The conflict generated protests in recent weeks in Guatemala in favor of Arévalo, who surprised the elections and will become the most progressive president since the return to democracy almost 40 years ago.
“They are fabricating causes to try to criminalize different actors. I have no doubt that they can do it against me and others,” says Arévalo in an interview with BBC Mundo.
What follows is a summary of the telephone dialogue with this expert in conflict resolution, who was elected deputy in 2019 shortly after entering politics and is the son of Juan José Arevaloconsidered the first democratically elected president in Guatemala.
You have said that in Guatemala there seems to be a “coup d’état in slow motion” to prevent his inauguration on January 14. Can you identify who specifically seeks to prevent you from assuming office as president?
It has been very clear that the political persecution against the electoral process, which has been extended even to the judges of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, is being carried out by the Public Ministry: the attorney general of the Republic with prosecutors under her charge. Among them, special prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche.
It is a political persecution that is carried out absolutely illegally, violating constitutionally established powers.
And it is through this means that an attempt is being made to violate the popular will freely expressed in the elections.
You have denounced that these officials you mention do not act in their own name but rather defend the interests of others…
In Guatemala we have suffered in the last two decades a process of co-option of State institutions by a criminal political elite that, organizing itself into political parties, began to attack the mayor’s offices, the Congress of the Republic and other spaces of the State.
It is from there where this device has been assembled. And a series of actors converge. Corrupt politicians, obviously. There are, for example, corrupt builders. A series of actors in different spaces that are articulated as a criminal political elite that seeks to facilitate corruption in the State.
Why would that criminal elite, as you point out, want to prevent you from assuming the presidency?
We won the election based on a commitment to the transformation of the country that begins by eliminating corruption, which has been the fundamental obstacle to development.
The country has seen a deterioration in terms of development: there is not only stagnation, but a decline in health, education, infrastructure indicators and even an increase in poverty. It is the result of the corrupt co-optation of institutions by this criminal political elite.
Development with tangible benefits will be possible whenever we rescue State institutions from the hands of these groups.
As that has been our commitment, what there is now on the part of those who did not think that we were going to reach this moment is the concern that this structure that they have set up is about to begin to disappear, to the extent that the control of the executive body is central to making this corruption machinery work. We have been clear that we will not allow it.
He has mentioned in particular the Guatemalan attorney general, Consuelo Porras, the prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche and judge Fredy Orellana as part of this attempt to sabotage his triumph…
Indeed, they are part of that network.
They maintain that there are alleged irregularities or anomalies in the creation of the Semilla Movement and that what they do is comply with the law. That responds?
Firstly, we were the ones who reported the irregularities when we discovered a case of a forged signature on the documents of our original constitution.
I, as the party’s legal representative at that time, filed a complaint with the Public Ministry asking for an investigation into this fact.
We agree that the investigation be carried out. That’s why we started it.
We present this request to the electoral crimes prosecutor’s office, which is competent to hear crimes committed within the framework of the electoral law and political parties. But it turns out that the Public Ministry decided to transfer that to the special prosecutor’s office against impunity, which operates within the framework of the law against organized crime.
A law for which there is no competition is being applied to an administrative issue.
That is what we are demonstrating within the court process. The Prosecutor’s Office and the court that has decreed, for example, the suspension of the party’s legal status have assumed powers that do not correspond to them according to our legislative framework.
What role do you assign to the current president Alejandro Giammattei in this whole situation?
President Giammattei, after some initial moments where he also doubted the results, has said very dramatically that he is going to put his life to guarantee that there is a transition on January 14.
But when he has been asked by us, by the Organization of American States and by different countries to speak out condemning the illegal actions of the Public Ministry, President Giammattei has refused to do so.
So he is clearly resisting criticism of something that is already almost universally described as a blatant illegality.
How far do you think those who, as you say, want to prevent you from assuming the presidency are willing to go?
In recent weeks we have seen a series of decisions that are increasingly closing space for them.
They began on November 1, with the results being made official by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, making them final and unalterable, which closes the possibility of any spurious questioning that existed.
There have been external audits of all the systems that have shown that what was claimed about fraud is absolutely impossible.
Decisions of the Constitutional Court, such as recognizing that we are being denied the right to defense, and the order given to Judge Fredy Orellana to hear our claim for unconstitutionality in the application of legislation against organized crime for an issue electoral, they are closing the spaces to this criminal political elite that is trying to alter the results.
They are becoming more and more alone, but those who continue in this line will surely be more desperate. It is evident that the legal framework has already been compromised and that legally they will not be able to take any action.
At this moment, don’t you see it as a possibility that, for example, there will be requests for the arrest of people from your team, your movement or yourself?
We do see that as a possibility. They are announcing it. One could even say that there is a psychological campaign of intimidation, where they announce that there are imminent arrests of members of our party.
In fact, they have already requested Congress to withdraw the immunity of the judges of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Also that of the vice president of the Republic, who is not part of that criminal political group.
That’s the tool they have. What I have said is that we are convinced that not even those tools will be able to stop the process of handing over command that will take place on January 14.
But it is very clear that the Public Ministry will continue to use these tools. He is going to continue trying to criminalize us, the indigenous leadership, and the judges of the Electoral Court through these fabricated and spurious causes.
These efforts will not stop the transition process.
Do you think they may try to criminalize you and arrest you yourself?
Yes, we know that they are trying to fabricate cases against the elected vice president Karin Herrera, cases against me. They have already done so against the vice president and the judges of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.
That is, they are fabricating cases to try to criminalize different actors. I have no doubt that they can do it against me and others.
Guatemalans have responded massively to their calls to peacefully protest to defend the electoral results and democracy. What do you think you and your political movement represent to them?
What my candidacy and our party have done is channel a feeling of exhaustion with an intolerable situation of corruption in our country. He has channeled that feeling into hope and the possibility of making a change.
At this moment there is a practically wall-to-wall consensus in Guatemalan society around the need to defend democracy and safeguard the electoral results.
The leaders of the indigenous peoples have led this mobilization to which all kinds of actors have joined. The private sector has done it and there is even a space for joint work between business and indigenous leadership, with the perspective of defending democracy.
The Guatemalan population is assuming as its own the defense, not of Bernardo Arévalo or the Semilla Movement, but the defense of the democratic system and the vote.
Do you see a risk that the political situation will cause a spiral of violence as the date on which you must assume power approaches?
I have no doubt that there will be those who will try to incite violence.
In fact, during the period where there were road blockades, which on the side of the protesters were completely peaceful, there were attempts to infiltrate the demonstrations on the one hand or to provoke them with armed violence on the other.
They had no result because The population has known how to remain calm and has been very clear that the objective of the infiltrators and provocateurs is to try to generate chaos of violence that justifies the suspension of constitutional guarantees by the government.
This has maintained that determination to not give up the protest peacefully. The violent ones are not going to give up their attempts, but their chances of success are very small.
His victory has generated hopes for change in a large part of Guatemalan society. To what extent can you meet those expectations, when your party is a minority in Congress, has been suspended by the courts, and your government is likely to face hostile opposition, based on what you yourself say?
Many of the scenarios like the one you relate are built on a projection of the balance of political forces that existed in the country before August 20. That is a political map that has been transformed very clearly.
We are indeed going to assume power in conditions where many of the institutions of the justice sector, for example, will continue to be taken over. In Congress we have the presence of deputies who are part of parties that are making these efforts.
But what we have seen in recent weeks has been a process of redefining political forces, based on the recognition that the old game of corruption will no longer continue to dominate the political scene.
So we have a much more fluid situation within Congress, where 16 parties are represented. We are dedicated to setting up a dialogue process with the different social sectors to begin to generate great agreements around public policies and reforms that are necessary.
We know that people’s needs and expectations are enormous in terms of the deficits in public services, unemployment, poverty, migration.
In the end, the central point of the citizen demand is to end the state of corruption that Guatemala has experienced in the last 15 or 20 years and recover the institutions to begin the effort to build the country. We are going to achieve that.
Do you plan to convene at some point an international commission against corruption in Guatemala, in the style of what CICIG was?
We are currently in the process of designing a national anti-corruption system, of which we will make the first announcements as soon as we come to power on January 14.
But to a large extent it will be a construction process between the different sectors of society and will not only have a judicial scope. It will have a scope of institutional and legal reform, prevention and judicialization of cases that are necessary, but also cultural change.
We are giving a broader framework to the fight against corruption in Guatemala. It is a task that will not be resolved in three to four years. But we can make significant progress to steer the country in the right direction.
Will you push for tax reform so that Guatemala’s economic elite pays more taxes?
No, we have been very clear during the campaign that we are not going to promote tax reform.
The first thing we have to do is recover the capacity of State institutions to implement public works. Second, recover the trust of the population in the institutions.
It makes no sense to propose a tax reform as an entry point if the execution capacity is deteriorated and trust in institutions is low.
We have made a calculation of funds that will once again be available to the State as we begin to combat different forms of corruption. There are studies that indicate that in Guatemala at this time between 30% and 40% of the national budget goes to corruption.
So the fight against corruption and the closure of tax evasion and smuggling will generate the resources we need for the development process.
There is a lot of talk about the deterioration of democracy in Latin America and Central America in particular. Do you think that what happens in Guatemala is going to send a signal to the region?
Democracy is facing challenges not only in Latin America but in the world in general. We have systems that were considered consolidated facing deep democratic crises, in the United States or Europe.
The international attention we are receiving is because in the case of Guatemala it is recognized not only the risks that exist for democracy, but also because this time the response of the population puts the defense of the institutions and the democratic system first.
This creates a starting point that can serve as an example for the region. It is also an opportunity to rethink this global crisis of democracy and the need to consider processes to recover it.
What is the greatest lesson you learned from your father, Juan José Arévalo, considered the first democratic and reformist president of Guatemala?
The greatest lesson is that politics, if it is not exercised from an ethical basis, becomes a merchant’s business.
And that democracy requires that the ethical dimension of public function and the exercise of politics be recovered.
And is there any particular lesson that the subsequent government of Jacobo Árbenz has left for you?
The governments of the October Revolution were democratic and reformist, they laid the foundations of what we have in our country of modern institutionality.
This country continues within the framework of the labor code established by my father or the Guatemalan Social Security Institute that was created at that time of institutional founding.
The lesson that one has to draw from that period is the need to think about the exercise of government not in terms of immediate results, but rather in terms of the great objectives that the country needs.
Guatemala needs to have 30-year objectives and horizons to effectively begin to transform its structures.
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