When Taiwan warned last September of a record number of Chinese fighter jets crossing the unofficial border between the two countries, Beijing said that such a line did not exist.
With the 103 fighter jets China flew near Taiwan, 40 of which entered the island’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), there was another escalation in Chinese war games.
In the last year, Beijing, which considers Taiwan a “rebel province,” has carried out continuous trials to surround the island with fighter jets and Navy ships.
These military exercises look even more threatening in light of the promises of China to “reunify” with Taiwan.
So far, the maneuvers have stopped short of becoming an invasion and have remained within a “gray zone,” which is the military’s description of tactics that fall between war and peace.
But Taiwan is now a powder keg in what has become a volatile US-China relationship, and analysts say gray zone tactics are part of Beijing’s strategy to control Taipei without firing a single shot.
What is China trying to achieve?
Gray zone warfare tactics aim to weaken an opponent over an extended period of timeand that’s exactly what China is trying to do with Taiwan, analysts say.
By regularly crossing Taiwan’s ADIZ, Beijing is testing how far Taipei will go to reinforce it, says Alessio Patalano, professor of war and East Asian strategy at King’s College London.
The ADIZ is self-declared and technically counts as international airspace, but is used by governments to monitor foreign aircraft.
Taiwan has routinely deployed fighter jets to deliver warnings to Chinese aircraft in its ADIZ, a strategy that can deplete Taiwan’s resources in the long term, Professor Patalano said.
But that is not the only goal or benefit of gray zone warfare tactics.
On the one hand, military exercises allow China to test its own capabilities, such as the coordination of forces and surveillance, according to analysts.
And on the other, they fit China’s pattern of normalizing increasing levels of military pressure on Taiwan to test the latter’s defenses and international support for the island.
“This normalization may one day serve to mask the first movements of a real attack, making it difficult for Taiwan and [su principal aliado] the United States to prepare adequately,” said David Gitter, a researcher at the National Bureau of Asian Research, based in the United States.
Beijing’s measures also restore a starting point for denying Taiwan’s claim that it has a border with China in the Taiwan Strait, the body of water that lies between the island and mainland China.
When asked about Taiwan’s reaction to the September exercises, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said: “There is no so-called median line” in the strait.
“It also serves to numb the Taiwanese public to the threat posed by such a force, which may undermine political support for more dedicated Taiwanese military preparation for the possibility of war,” Gitter said.
Most analysts agree that Taiwan’s military—a small army, an outnumbered Navy, and aging artillery—would be no match for a much more powerful China.
Many Taiwanese seem to agree with this, judging by a poll last year by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation that found that more than half of them think China will win if they go to war. Only a third believe Taiwan would win.
And yet, the appetite for a larger defense budget appears to be little. Nearly half of Taiwanese think current spending is enough, while a third think it is already too much, according to a recent survey by the University of Nottingham.
When does China deploy gray zone tactics?
China often holds military exercises in response to high-level political exchanges between Taiwan and the United States, which it views as provocations.
These have become more intense and more frequent since the visit of the then speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan in August 2022.
Beijing responded with week-long military rehearsals that included four days of exercises with live fire, followed by anti-submarine attacks and rehearsals of maritime raids.
Then in April, after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen met with then-U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California, China practiced “encircling” Taiwan with so-called “exercises.” Joint Sword” with its aircraft carrier Shandong in action.
On October 26, Taiwan warned about the presence of the Shandong in the Bashi Channel, a maritime passage in the Luzon Strait located between Taiwan and the Philippines. It is the third time that this aircraft carrier has been present in the Western Pacific so far this year.
China even sent planes to Taiwan’s Pacific coast in the east, suggesting it was practicing attacks from that direction, rather than to the west, which faces mainland China.
Increasingly, China appears to be rehearsing a blockade of Taiwan. But Pentagon officials say that is unlikely to succeed, as this would give Taipei’s allies time to mobilize.
The September exercises also followed a visit by Taiwanese Vice President William Lai to the United States.
Taipei warned there would be military exercises after China called Lai, a front-runner in January’s presidential election, a “troublemaker” for flying to the United States.
Some analysts also believe China was trying to project strength following rumors about the disappearance of its Defense Minister Li Shangfu.
Chinese tactics are not exclusive to the confrontation with Taiwan either. Beijing is using similar measures to claim almost the entire South China Sea, which could be key to taking control of Taiwan.
The waters house a very important shipping route and are believed to contain vast reserves of oil and gas.
Beijing has built large structures on reefs in disputed waters over which the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei have claims.
It has also deployed coast guard and military ships to block Philippine fishing and security vessels in those waters despite an international court ruling that Beijing’s claims have no legal basis.
Could these gray zone tactics intensify?
The exercises are creating an increasingly militarized region, whether in the waters around Taiwan or in the skies.
The United States and its allies have also stepped up their military exercises in the South China Sea. In early October, the United States and the Philippines began yet another round.
Even if neither side intends to provoke, observers fear the buildup of warships and fighter jets will increase the chances of a costly miscalculation.
The two countries’ militaries also do not communicate directly, although the United States says it is trying to reactivate the hotline, which would help defuse any unplanned escalation.
Despite resuming high-level dialogue with the United States, China has shown no signs to back down on Taiwan.
September’s record incursions show that such maneuvers will be carried out as part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s policies, even without “external triggers,” Gitter said.
Xi recently said he will “never promise to renounce the use of force” and that Taiwan “must and will be” united with China.
But observers say China needs to be careful in the coming months because showing too much force could also pave the way for Lai, whom it sees as a pro-Taiwan independence candidate, to win in the crucial January elections.
Next year will also be when Beijing will commission its new Fujian aircraft carrier, its most advanced yet, which Taipei says will improve China’s ability to cordon off the Taiwan Strait.
China’s military exercises They will become larger and more frequent, Gitter said.
“We can expect the numbers to progressively increase until perhaps even approaching levels that could escalate into an actual attack,” he said.
Additional information from BBC Monitoring
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