This Sunday’s regional elections revealed a historical truth in Colombia: this is, above all, a fragmented country.
No party, politician or movement can be considered the big winner or the big loser of the elections that elected 1,102 mayoralties and 32 governorships: there was, in reality, a little of everything and the variables of each election responded to local rather than national dynamics.
In general, Colombians, concerned about security and family finances, according to surveys, opted for options that aspire to stability, to what is known, to resolve their daily problems rather than to change the country’s fundamentals.
Some took that as a vote to punish the president, Gustavo Petro, but the thing is more complex: Petrism had a symbolic defeat in Bogotá, but it is a movement without much experience or national projection at the local and regional level.
Petro has received a call for attention from Colombians, although he maintains between 30% and 40% approval in the polls.
The truth is that, as Colombian political scientists often say, regional elections cannot be read with the eyes of presidential elections: the local is not the national.
And this year was no exception.
In the mayor’s office of Bogotá, for example, an old acquaintance of the center-left was swept away, Carlos Fernando Galan, which combines new proposals with a timid continuity of Claudia López, the outgoing mayor with whom she lost four years ago. Galán is the son of the murdered liberal leader Luis Carlos Galán.
In Medellín a former mayor won, Federico Gutierrez, which meant, in some way, the return to power of Uribismo. In Barranquilla the ruling party won, in Cali the opposition won and in Bucaramanga an old power with a new face, like a Bukelista.
In the governorates, meanwhile, the traditional powers linked to the business community of each region, the famous “political clans“, showed that they are far from losing their influence.
And so, each election was a world. Also because this year a new variable was added: they participated 35 different matchesa historical record in a country that 30 years ago only knew about two games.
That said, these elections shed some conclusions about the political moment that Colombia is experiencing. And here we summarize four.
1. Petro has not laid the foundations for Petrism
In the 2022 general elections, Petro made history by becoming the first left-wing president in the country. Furthermore, in Congress, his movement, the Historical Pact, was the majority force.
However, in these regions the PH went downhill: it did not win or support the winner of any of the large cities, it maintained power in only two governorates (Nariño and Magdalena) and it will not be a majority in any of the departmental assemblies or municipal councils. .
The PH, which is not a party but a coalition, came to these elections divided and did not present strong candidates in the most popular mayoralties in the country.
His candidate in Bogotá, the former senator and librettist Gustavo Bolivarlost the bid for second place to a sophisticated center-right technocrat with no political experience, Juan Daniel Oviedo.
Petro promised Colombians to end poverty, inequality and violence. To do this, he needs to lay the foundations for a robust, formal and efficient party that has a presence throughout the Colombian political system.
That task remains pending.
2. Bogotá, the bastion of progressivism, chooses the safe
Despite having a certain attachment to progressivism, Bogotá has always been an indefinable electorate.
In fact, it is common for the capital to be presided over by a politician opposed to whoever is in the presidency. It happens now with Claudia López and Possibly it will be like that with Galán.
The elected mayor won on the third opportunity that was presented, and he did so with the support of voters from all currents and new parties as well as those linked to the old politics.
Galán represents a conjunction of positions that promise efficiency, security and common sense without much ideology. Furthermore, he relies on the legacy of his father, a politician murdered by drug traffickers who promised to modernize liberalism.
His party, the New Liberalism, had a terrible result in last year’s legislative and presidential elections, but now it has swept the Bogotá mayor’s office. One more proof that regional and presidential are different worlds.
3. Anti-Petrism is diverse
Although Petro received a wake-up call, his opposition cannot declare itself the great winner of these elections either.
Most of the candidates who won were critical of the president, but The diversity among them makes it difficult to think that they are part of the same movement.
And during the campaigns the position on Petro was not the main variable: infrastructure works, security problems, access to education and health, and local clientelistic logic played more.
All the mayors of the big cities will now be opponents of Petro: in Bogotá the traditional center-left won, in Medellín the Uribista right won, and in Cali and Barranquilla the business center-right won.
But that does not mean that they are all part of the same front that threatens Petro’s governability.
4. Regional barons and traditional parties are in force
In the regional elections four years ago, the results showed a national trend: the majority of those elected were new figures, far from the traditional parties that have governed the country for decades.
This year, however, the trend is the opposite: In the majority of mayoralties and governorships, politicians associated with traditional party structures wonwith strong ties to companies and a utilitarian, rather than ideological, way of doing politics.
Each region of Colombia has its own economic and political power. They are usually families, or groups of families, with businesses that have developed a political subsidiary.
Petro approached many of them to win the presidency, and now he will have them back in power, which is why some analysts predict a better execution of resources: he may have received a blow, they say, but I may also have gained efficiency .
Due to the accidental nature of its geography and the unequal and exclusive development of its regions, Colombia has always been a country of local powers. These elections demonstrated it once again.
Remember that you can receive notifications from BBC Mundo. Download the new version of our app and activate them so you don’t miss our best content.
Do you already know our YouTube channel? Subscribe!