Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un have a lot in common. Neither of them goes out much. The Kremlin leader has not left Russia this year. In Kim’s case, it’s been four years without traveling.
Both Russia and North Korea have been accused of becoming “rogue states” (rogue states).
Both are under heavy international sanctions.
Both governments criticize the “hegemony” of the United States.
Often, a common enemy It can bring leaders together, and that’s what happens with Putin and Kim. Theirs is a marriage made, if not in heaven, certainly in the geopolitical realities of 2023.
A “bromance“? Not quite. Unlike former U.S. President Donald Trump, who once declared that he and Kim Jong-un “fell in love,” the leaders of Russia and North Korea are less effusive in their public displays of affection.
But both Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un see potential benefits in a closer relationship.
a lot to gain
So,what does the Kremlin gain with this? For starters, North Korea has a huge defense industry with large-scale production capabilities.
As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, Pyongyang could prove a invaluable source of ammunition for Moscow.
Washington suspects that the Kremlin has already taken note of this. The US says arms talks between Russia and North Korea have been “actively advancing” and Russia is reportedly seeking supplies of ammunition and artillery shells.
There is no confirmation from Russian officials. But there are many unsubtle signs that Russia and North Korea intend boost military cooperation.
In July, Sergei Shoigu became the first Russian Defense Minister to visit North Korea since the breakup of the Soviet Union, when he attended events commemorating the 70th anniversary of the Korean armistice.
Kim Jong-un acted as a tour guide while showing the Shoigu a weapons exhibition.
The Minister of Defense has also hinted that they are preparing joint military exercises.
“In my opinion, if they look for weapons in North Korea, one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world, an isolated country, this is lto greater humiliation of Russian ‘great power’ propaganda,” said former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev.
Kozyrev spoke to me via video call from the US, where he currently resides.
“A great power would not go to North Korea for an alliance or military supplies,” he added.
Sanctions
But a power trying to overthrow the world order could do so. With his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin signaled his determination to remake the global order to the liking of Russia.
Military cooperation with North Korea may be another sign of this. An arms deal between Moscow and Pyongyang would represent a big change.
Until very recently, Russia had strongly supported the sanctions of the UN Security Council against Pyongyang for its nuclear weapons program. Among other things, those sanctions prohibit arms trade with North Korea.
“Moscow had signed those Security Council resolutions,” the Russian tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets reminded its readers last week. But he added: “It doesn’t matter. A signature can be revoked“.
The newspaper quoted the chairman of the Russian Foreign and Defense Policy Council, Fyodor Lukyanov, as saying: “The question has long been asked: why do we [Rusia] Do we abide by these sanctions? “The entire system of international relations is in a state of total chaos.”
“Of course, UN sanctions are legitimate. It’s hard to deny it. We voted in favor of them. But the situation has changed. Why not revoke our vote?“.
That would be music to Kim Jong-un’s ears.
Together forever?
What can North Korea expect from Russia? It is almost certain that humanitarian aid that will serve to alleviate the food shortage on North Korean soil.
There is also speculation that Pyongyang has been seeking advanced Russian technology for satellites and military use, including nuclear-powered submarines.
More than a year and a half into a war in which Russia has fared very poorly, Moscow may need to replenish its ammunition reserves.
He may well see an agreement with Pyongyang as a way to help achieve this. But that doesn’t mean that, without North Korea’s help, Russia’s war machine is about to grind to a halt.
“Putin is not desperate“, considers former minister Andrei Kozyrev:
“He can sustain this for a long time and he can adapt. He learns every day how to bypass sanctions, how to cooperate with China, North Korea and some regimes in Africa. That is not an alternative for the future. But It is an alternative for the current moment. And maybe for years to come.”
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