The events of this weekend mark one of the clearest challenges to Vladimir Putin’s power since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.
The Wagner Group, a private army of mercenaries who have been fighting on the side of the Russian forces in the conflict with Kyiv, rebelled against the Russian military high command and advanced this Saturday into the interior of Russia, in the direction of Moscow, staying at 200 km from the capital.
President Putin accused Wagner’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin of treason, embarking on an armed rebellion and giving his country what he called “a stab in the back”.
Prigozhin, one of Russia’s most senior figures and a former Putin ally, said his goal was not “a military coup but a march for justice.”
However, as evening fell in Russia, Prigozhin announced that his group would turn around and return to their bases, after reaching an agreement with the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, who acted as a mediator.
What is happening with the Wagner Group?
For months, Prigozhin has played a vital role in Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, recruiting thousands of soldiers for his mercenary group, especially from Russian prisons.
He has been involved for some time in an open dispute with the Russian military chiefs who command the war, a tension that since Friday has been transformed into a revolt.
Wagner’s forces crossed from occupied territory in eastern Ukraine into the Russian city of rostov-on-don and they said they had taken the control of their military installations.
Putin recognized that the situation was difficult and vowed to do everything possible to defend Russia.
Was this a coup?
All claims that a military coup was underway are absurd, Prigozhin himself claimed.
But what started as a dispute over the fact that the Russian military did not provide its mercenaries with enough equipment and ammunition, turned into a direct challenge to the two men tasked with leading the war in Ukraine: the Minister of Defense Russian, SergEUi Shoigor, and the head of the armed forcesyes, Valery Gerasimov.
What happened cannot be described as a hitsince there was no attempt to seize power from the government.
The “private military company” also does not represent the military, although it claims to have widespread support.
But it was a attempt to overthrow the top brass of Russia and therefore a challenge to the authority of the president putin.
And while it was the Russian leader who allowed Prigozhin and his forces to become involved in the war, Putin no longer has control over him.
The Kremlin took the events of this Saturday very seriously.
The entire Moscow region was placed on alert and under a strict “regime of anti-terrorist operations” and the main events planned in the Russian capital were cancelled.
Similar measures were taken in the Voronezh region, near the border with Ukraine.
“There is 25,000 of usPrigozhin stated. “Everyone who wants, let him join.” By comparison, the Russian army numbers about 800,000 active soldiers.
This is not enough to threaten President Putin, but it is a challenge to the Russian military leadership.
The Wagner Group leader denied he was betraying Russia, and, in an outspoken criticism of the president, said he is “deeply wrong.”
What is Prigozhin looking for?
His idea of a “march for justice” is vague, but his feud with Russian military leaders has clearly escalated so fast that he wants to oust them..
In a video shared on Saturday, Prigozhin could be seen telling a deputy defense minister and a general in Rostov on Friday that until the two top military figures talk to him, his mercenaries will blockad the city and head for Moscow.
The fight is not with the Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but with the “clowns” who lead them, Prigozhin argues.
Several generals have asked him to calm down, but it seems to be too late.
What is the relationship between Putin and Prigozhin?
Prigozhin has long been a close ally of President Putin and has prospered under him, first as a wealthy businessman and later as a mercenary boss.
Large numbers of Wagner Group fighters were killed in the bitter campaign to seize Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, which lasted for months and was never fully achieved.
Prigozhin blamed military top brass for the shell shortage, with graphic videos and insult-filled social media sermons exposing the flaws and fractures within the Russian military in Ukraine.
He never directed his anger directly at the president, but his sarcastic references to “happy grandpa” were widely interpreted as an indirect criticism to Putin.
Last month, he asked how Russia could win, if it turned out that “this grandfather was a complete idiot.”
In early June, President Putin supported a move by the Defense Minister that all mercenary groups in Ukraine had to sign a contract with his ministry for July 1st.
Prigozhin refused, stating that this measure was an challenge to his authority.
In a lengthy tirade on June 23, he told the Russians that the entire justification for their war was a lie and simply an excuse for “a small group of bastards” to promote themselves and deceive the public and the president.
A grave moment for Putin and Russia
This is not a direct challenge to Russia’s war in Ukraine or the president’s leadership.
But it is serious enough that the Russian leader gave a five-minute televised address in a determined and uncompromising tone.
Prigozhin threatened not only to set up camp in Rostov, but to head to Moscow if his military demands were not met.
Until now, it has only clashed with the Russian military leadership to get it to increase arms supplies. Now I know confront the leadership itself.
Prigozhin enjoys substantial public support in Russia and, even if his challenge falls apart, this is a moment of crisis for an army that has relied on its mercenaries in Ukraine.
But this is also a watershed moment for Putin’s leadership and a wake-up call for the Russians.
Putin under pressure
Analysis by Steve Rosenberg, editor from the BBC in Moscow
It is almost certain that President Putin will enjoy the support of the Russian high command. Some have already shown their condemnation of Prigozhin’s actions.
What is less clear is the current state of mind in the lower ranks of the army. To what extent have Prigozhin’s criticisms of the warlords struck a chord there?
Watching the president deliver his speech on television, I had a strong feeling of déjà vu.
I was reminded of the dramatic speech he made exactly 16 months ago when he announced the start of his “special military operation”: the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Then it was a very different Vladimir Putin.
He seemed extremely confident in victory.
That was an operation that Russian authorities expected to be over in days, a few weeks at the most.
But it didn’t quite go according to plan. The Russian war did not only cause large-scale death and destruction in the Ukraine. It caused instability within Russia itself.
And that has led to the dramatic events we are now witnessing with Prigozhin and his Wagner fighters.
Create another big headache for the Kremlin.
President Putin is not just waging a war in the Ukraine.
Now he has to deal with a riot at home.
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See original article on BBC