Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
By: EFE Posted May 25, 2023, 20:36 pm EDT
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will have at least 12 named storms, 5-9 of which will become hurricanesand at least one could be a major hurricane, as announced on Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States, predicting an “almost normal” season.
At a news conference at its Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in Maryland, NOAA predicted that this year’s Atlantic storm season, which begins June 1 and runs through November 30, expects between 12 and 17 named storms, so it could be an “almost normal” season.
Prospects of normality
This year, “we expect a 40% chance of a near-normal seasona 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season,” Richard W. Spinrad, NOAA administrator, said at the news conference regarding the range. of storms expected.
This fall, he noted, 12 to 17 named storms are expected with top winds of at least 39 miles per hour (62 km/h). Of these, between 5 and 9 are forecast to become hurricanes with maximum winds of at least 74 mph (119 km/h).
This includes, he warned, between one and four hurricanes that could escalate to the category of major (157 mph- plus 252 km/h)according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Spinrad announced that in June NOAA will launch a new hurricane observation model that will become the “main” of the federal agency.
Called the Hurricane Forecast and Analysis System, it provides up to 15% improvement in track and intensity forecasts over existing models.
“It is aimed at improving the forecast for rapid intensification,” he said.
Spinrad also announced that, in July, the agency will expand its “computing capacity” by 20%, an upgrade that “will allow us to run more complex forecast models and provide faster, more efficient computing power for operational forecasting, research and development,” he explained.
“Other notable product and service updates include this year that the Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) expanded its forecasts for the tropics from 5 days to seven days,” he recalled.
Don Graves, Undersecretary of the US Department of Commerce, recommended for his part that all Americans “living in the potential paths of these storms,” even far offshore, follow NOAA “to prepare and determine your risk”.
“Last year alone we saw 14 named storms arrive, three of them hurricanes that hit the United States, causing collective damage of 117,000 million (dollars) that is adjusted for inflation,” Graves explained.
Deanne Criswell, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), said for her part that the work of this agency could not be carried out “without the support of NOAA, the National Hurricane Center, as well as the National Centers for Environmental Protection”.
Prior to NOAA’s predictions, researchers at the University of Colorado (CSU) last April forecast a slightly below-average 2023 hurricane season for the Atlantic basin, considering the El Niño phenomenon as the main factor.
Although the season has not officially started yet, the United States National Hurricane Center (NHC), based in Miami, announced that A non-tropical low pressure area could form off the southeastern US coast in the next few days.
The agency notes at the same time that the system seems unlikely to become a tropical cyclone as it is forecast to remain frontal as it moves north and inland over the Carolinas this weekend.
Keep reading:
• Powerful tornado in Mississippi leaves 23 dead and destruction in its path
• Montebello Tornado is classified as level EF1 on the Fujita scale, with gusts of 110 miles per hour.
• Tornado lifts roofs off buildings in Montebello and injures at least one person