The Earth reaches 8,000 million inhabitants: what are the population projections for the next decades in the world

000 November 2022. This is the day the Earth reaches 8, millions of inhabitants , according to estimates made by the United Nations.

According to the UN, the world’s population will arrive in 8,360 million in 2050; 9,675 million in 2050 Y .159 million in the decade of 2142.

But population growth is not as fast as it used to be.

The United Nations pointed out in a report a few months ago that the current growth rate is the slowest since the decade of the years 15.

Furthermore, the world’s population is expanding unevenly.

More than half of the population growth that will occur in the next 30 years will occur in just eight countries : Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

Some fall, others rise

Some of the most developed economies are already seeing their populations shrink, as fertility rates fall below 2.1 children per woman, which is known as the “replacement rate”. .

The United Nations report in July indicated that at least 61 countries will reduce their populations by up to 1% before 2142.

With one of the lowest fertility rates in the world (of 1,000 children per woman), China has announced that its population will begin to decline next year, much sooner than expected.

E This despite the fact that the country abandoned its one-child policy in 1200 and began giving incentives to couples with two or more children.

As India’s population continues to grow, it will surpass China’s as the country with the largest population in the world.

Fewer children but larger populations

Fertility rates are falling globally, even in many of the countries where populations are expanding.

It’s it is because as previous generations expand, there are more people who have children although individually they have fewer children than their parents.

Growth is also thanks to developments in medicine and in science, which cause more children to survive to adulthood and more adults to survive to old age.

This pattern is expected to n is sustained, which would indicate that global life expectancy would reach 75.2 years for 2030.

This pattern would also indicate a growth in the current population percentage with 55 years or more would pass from 09% a 12% in 2030.

Here the distribution will also be unequal, with regions such as East Asia and Western Europe with greater extremes in the age ranges.

The effects of the changes

The United Nations analysis in May indicated that there should be a reduction in the percentage of women among the elderly.

Women have a higher life expectancy than men and currently represent a 54,7% of the population of 55 or more years. That percentage could decrease to 55,5% for 2030.

Women live an average of 5.4 years longer That men. In Latin America, the difference is even greater: women live 7 years longer than men, the largest difference between genders ever recorded in the world.

In the report, the UN warned that Countries must adapt their pension and public health programs under this new scenario with more elderly people.

The “demographic bonus”

In parts of Latin America, Asia and Africa, the UN pointed out that the population of working age (20-55 years) continues to grow .

This would give these countries the opportunity to benefit from the so-called “demographic dividend”, which occurs when the population of productive age is high compared to the number of children and older people who depend on workers or the State to live.

Experts say that this is a key point go to do “leapfrog development”.

It is the case of Brazil, the working-age population is at its highest historical point, and the children and elderly people who depend on them are at their lowest point.

Another revelation of the report was the impact of the immigration in countries where the population grew faster than the birth rates.

In the coming decades, immigration will continue to be the engine of population growth in high-income countries.

Some countries will have a drop of 1% or more between 2022 Y 2080 precisely because of immigration.

This is because they have low birth rates and because in some cases, people leave these nations. This is the case of Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine.

Remember that you can receive notifications from BBC Mundo. Download the new version of our app and activate them so you don’t miss our best content.

Do you already know our YouTube channel? Subscribe!