The Supreme Court issued a decision Friday annulling Roe v. Wade, unleashing a cascade of anti-abortion laws likely to go into effect in roughly half the country.
Without established historical precedent, the national abortion landscape will change rapidly, according to the Washington Post.
First, 13 states with “bans on activation”, designed to take effect as soon as Roe is revoked, will prohibit abortion within 30 days.
Several states where recent anti-abortion legislation has been blocked by the courts are expected to act next, and lawmakers will move to activate their dormant legislation.
A handful of states also have pre-Roe abortion bans that could be reactivated.
In other parts of the country, the post-Roe scenario is less certain.
The Republican Governor of Virginia, Glenn Youn gkin, is already seeking a ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
While most As state legislatures have adjourned during the year, some governors have expressed an interest in calling a special session to pass additional anti-abortion legislation, or eliminate anti-abortion laws already on the books. Access to abortion in other states will depend on the midterm elections.
States that will establish bans in 30 days
In 13 states the prohibitions will take effect in 30 days: Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.
In Oklahoma, the ban could take effect immediately as of today.
Between this first wave, the anti-abortion laws that are scheduled to go into effect (activation bans) work differently in each state.
Some will be activated as soon as a designated state official certifies the court’s decision, which could be within minutes, while others will take effect 30 days later before the decision is announced.
Yes While all of these laws make exceptions for the life of the mother, most do not include exceptions for rape and incest.
Arkansas, Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming have a triggering ban that will go into effect after a designated authority certifies the court’s decision in 30 days.
For Kentucky, Louisiana, South Dakota, and Texas, no waiting period or certification is required.
States where abortion is likely to be banned in weeks or months
In five states that do not count with triggering laws (Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and South Carolina), the courts blocked or struck down recent laws banning most or all abortions. Without Roe, those laws will likely go into effect in weeks or months.
While Indiana has not passed a strict abortion ban, the state led by Republicans could hold a special session this summer to crack down on the procedure.
Meanwhile, West Virginia, another state led by Republicans, never repealed the pre-Roe abortion ban, and recently added a constitutional amendment specifying that its citizens do not have the right to an abortion.
States where the fate of the right to abortion is uncertain
In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Democratic governors have blocked anti-abortion legislation proposed or passed by Republican-led legislatures.
The future of access to abortion will depend on the next midterm elections: if anti-abortion Republicans win In governorships, Republican lawmakers will have a clear path to ban abortion.
Kansas will hold a statewide referendum in August on an amendment that would eliminate protections against abortion established by the state Supreme Court.
In Virginia, just hours after the Supreme Court decision, Governor Youngkin said he had tasked four lawmakers, all anti-abortion Republicans, to draft legislation to ban most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
Although Florida and Arizona approved bans on abortion of 15 weeks, which allow more than 90 percent of abortions to continue, lawmakers in Republican-led states could try to go further in the coming months or years.
Montana has protection it is against abortion in the state constitution. The Republican governor and a legislature controlled by that party may choose to seek an abortion ban.
Nebraska has a Republican governor who expressed interest in calling a special session to pass new anti-abortion laws, but a recent vote to create a triggering ban narrowly failed in the legislature.
In North Carolina, the Republican-controlled legislature may seek to pass new anti-abortion laws. The Democratic governor, who has vetoed previous anti-abortion laws, will run for re-election in 2024.
States where abortion is likely to remain protected
Included 20 states listed: Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, New Hampshire, Oregon. Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.
Many states have passed laws that explicitly protect the right to abortion, with several adding those protections this year ahead of the Supreme Court decision.
Elsewhere, state courts have protected abortion access through state constitutions and previous court decisions. New Mexico and New Hampshire lack such explicit protections, but their state legislatures are unlikely to act to ban the procedure.
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