Russia’s war in Ukraine has become an increasingly exhausting and bloody affair, with each side wearing down the other. Both claim to have made progress. But they have also suffered setbacks.
Overall, Russia remains the dominant force and has significant military might, but has not achieved a quick victory as anticipated.
Here, we take a closer look at some of the things that could tip the outcome of this conflict in favor of either side.
Gains and Losses
In the north, a Ukrainian counteroffensive successfully pushed back forces Russian from the city of Kharkiv. In the south, Russia eliminated the last pockets of resistance in the port city of Mariupol.
In both cases there have been high costs in terms of military and civilian casualties, but neither is likely to be decisive.
What happened in Mariupol and Kharkiv highlights the ebb and flow of this conflict. That pattern of costly gains and losses is now being repeated in the east of the country.
Russia has been making small but steady gains in Donbas, the renewed focus of its offensive.
But it has also suffered setbacks, as evidenced by the destruction earlier this month of dozens of Russian armored vehicles trying to cross the Donets River.
Artillery: the Russian advantage
In the east, each side is exchanging heavy artillery blows. Ben Barry, a former British Army Brigadier now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, says that will continue to be the case in the battle for Donbas.
Predicts artillery to be the main cause of casualties on both sides in the coming weeks and months.
Western officials have highlighted significant losses of Russia, but have been less willing to give estimates of Ukrainian casualties.
Ukraine is now receiving Western-supplied heavy weapons, including M777 from the USA. They have also sent him anti-artillery radar systems, which help him to locate and attack the lines Russian artillery.
But Ukraine still has fewer weapons than its adversary.
Tactical
Russia has been using its artillery and rocket launchers to immobilize
Russia has been pressing from two main directions: from Izium, in the north, and from the east, around the city of Severedonetsk. Moscow has made limited progress in both directions.
Brigadier Barry says it appears that Russia is “trying to bleed Ukraine dry” by forcing it to concentrate its forces on key points, which can then be attacked by its artillery.
Military analysts believe that it is likely that Ukraine has suffered significant casualties as a result of this.
However, the expert says that Ukraine will still be able to use the urban areas in Donbas to stop Russia’s advances. Fighting in towns and cities, as has been shown throughout this war, favors the defender.
Once again, as in Mariupol, Russia is likely to try to crush the resistance, in the now familiar pattern of using massive artillery strikes until there is little left to defend.
The President of Ukraine Volodimir Zelensky has already said that the eastern Donbas region has been “completely destroyed” and has described life there as “hell”. It’s going to get worse.
Russia’s “Frankenstein forces”
However, military experts still they believe that Russia lacks the number of troops it needs to make significant advances in the east.
Redeploying forces fighting in Kharkiv and Mariupol is unlikely to make a difference.
Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a studies on security and defense in the United Kingdom, says that Russia still lacks manpower and, in particular, infantry.
Russia has tried to rebuild and combine some of its already worn-out units , referred to as “Frankenstein forces”.
Cohesion and morale of tired and depleted units is likely are deficient.
A recent intelligence assessment by the UK Ministry of Defense concluded that Russian commanders face pressure to achieve ar results quickly and, consequently, they are likely to redeploy forces without adequate preparation.
The ministry said that Russia is at risk of “further attrition”. Russia is said to have already lost about a third of its initial invasion force, an estimate that includes troops killed and wounded, as well as equipment destroyed or damaged.
Watling says that Russia is trying to address this shortage with various measures, including the mobilization of reservists who have more than 40 years of age and the offer of short-term contracts to fill their ranks.
But training and rebuilding an army takes time.
Russia has also proven vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks on its supply lines. But Ukraine’s ability to do this is likely to be limited, with most of its forces committed to defensive positions.
The long war
No one thinks that this war will end quickly. It is not yet at an impasse. Russia is making progress, but very slowly. Eit is unlikely that the outcome of this war will depend solely on military might.
Watling says that Russia is also looking for economic and political levers to inflict as much damage as possible on Ukraine. While Russia’s economy is taking a hit from Western sanctions, Ukraine’s is likely to suffer even more.
Se forecasts that Russia’s GDP will decrease by 13% over the next year, but Ukraine’s GDP could fall by 50%. Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea is causing significant damage.
Watling says continued Western economic and military support could prove crucial for Ukraine.
Will public interest in the war wane as it drags on, as it has after 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and Moscow-backed separatists took over for parts of Donbas for the first time?
Western governments now also have to worry about their own internal challenges, including rising inflation, oil and gas prices, and a crisis in the cost of living, caused in part by the war.
When the boreal winter approaches, it will be more difficult il for armies to fight. It may also make it harder for the world to weather an economic storm.
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