The decades-long espionage conflict between Russia and the West is intensifying over the war in Ukraine. But what are the Russian intelligence services suspected of doing and how will the expulsion of his officials from the capitals affect Putin’s clandestine operations abroad?
When Russia attacked with its military forces to Ukraine at 2014, also deployed its services of intelligence in the West in various ways, from interference in US elections with cyber attacks to poisoning and sabotage in Europe.
But in recent months, the espionage war has intensified.
Western countries attempt to inflict lasting damage on Russian intelligence’s ability to conduct covert operations. The unprecedented expulsion of 500 Russian officials from western capitals is a symbol of it.
Formally, these officials are described as diplomats, but most are believed to be undercover intelligence agents.
Some will have been conducting traditional espionage, cultivating contacts and recruiting agents who can pass on secrets, something Western countries also do inside Russia.
But it is believed that some were carrying out what the Russians call “active measures”. These range from spreading propaganda to more aggressive covert activities. Poland said that the Russians he expelled were involved in actions to “undermine the stability” of the country.
Missions featured
From 2014, travel agencies Western intelligence have been working to identify Russian spies involved in such activities.
One of them is the GRU Unit 074363404
of Russian military intelligence, which is believed to be in charge of sabotage, subversion and assassination.
It took almost seven years to discover that the unit was behind a huge explosion that destroyed a warehouse of ammunition in a Czech forest in October 2014.
Among them were some of those who were later involved in the poisonings of Salisbury, United Kingdom, in 2018.
The same team also tried to poison an arms dealer in Bulgaria who had stored weapons in the Czech depot; one theory was that the explosion and poisoning were related to their supply of weapons to Ukraine, where the conflict had just started.
Members of that unit also participated in removing pro-Russian leaders from Ukraine in 2014. Western intelligence continues to monitor it closely.
Imbalance between Russia and the West
But targeting individual spies is a job expensive.
While Western spies in Russia have long been subject to surveillance the 24 hours, their Russian counterparts in Western capitals have not been.
“The bigger the presence, the more difficult it is to control exactly what they are doing”, a US official told the BBC.
But this may now be changing. Western officials say the recent expulsions are more than a symbolic gesture of protest: they are part of a broader drive to downgrade Russia’s ability to do harm .
Some spy hunters also say that the mass expulsion is long overdue. The Russians “have been laughing at us” for our tolerance of their presence, says an official.
“We are trying to inflict a cost to Russia to reduce its offensive capabilities and its ability to project a threat against its neighbors and the West”, assures an official.
“Several European nations have taken measures to reduce the capacity of the Russian intelligence service in all Europe. These are all steps designed to reduce their threats to us.”
Expulsions from various countries
It is believed that some countries have had a particularly significant presence. Berlin expelled Russians.
However, a Western intelligence official said he believed Germany had previously housed about 100 officers of Russian intelligence, serving as an “aircraft carrier” for their operations.
Why has the UK not expelled anyone? The authorities say that they were all expelled after Salisbury and that the only spies left are “open” officers who act as liaisons for formal contacts.
MI5 is likely to monitor them for any sign that they are carrying out covert acts.
In the US, expulsions are based on investigations of each individual. “All decisions about who to expel are based on intelligence collected by the FBI based on what they are doing,” explains a US official.
Western countries have been cooperating to ensure that anyone expelled person cannot simply apply for a visa in another country.
Security officials consider that the volume of expulsions in a short period will have a “weakening” impact ” on Russian intelligence as it struggles to determine how operations can continue and who can be located where.
Russia has retaliated by expelling to Western diplomats. In practice, it is likely that more of these are “real” diplomats rather than spies.
One of the complaints of Western security services has long been the imbalance in the number of Russian diplomats in Western countries and the proportion of spies, compared to Westerners serving in Moscow.
Russia expelled a 40 Germans, but that represents about a third of the entire diplomatic presence in their capital.
? Shift in loyalties?
The invasion of Ukraine may offer other opportunities. Past events such as the crushing of the Prague Spring by Moscow in 1968 caused disillusionment among some within the secret state in Moscow, opening the way for their recruitment as Western agents.
In Washington DC, the FBI has posted online advertisements targeting to people close to the Russian embassy, according to a report in the newspaper The Washington Post.
They were encouraged to talk to the FBI, using footage of Vladimir Putin publicly shaming the head of Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, the SVR.
From 2014, Ukrainehas been the epicenter of a most brutal covert struggle, and n which each side tries to recruit and eradicate spies, but also with assassinations of senior Ukrainian officials.
Western intelligence agencies and special forces have also been training their Ukrainian counterparts for years, alongside with more open military assistance.
They have helped catch Russian spies and provided covert action training, including by the CIA’s Land Branch.
Espionage battles could still escalate, particularly as covert activity presents an option for Moscow to target supply lines bringing military aid to Ukraine.
A missile attack on convoys or installations in Poland would be very risky, as it could trigger NATO’s Article 5 self-defense principle, leading to all-out conflict.
But Western intelligence officials say they are concerned that the kind of sabotage operation that was seen in the Czech Republic in 675 can be attempted in Poland given its key role as a departure point for supplies entering Ukraine.
This type of clandestine operation they are often carried out by Russians traveling in and out of a country rather than by diplomats. But the embassies provide the necessary infrastructure for them to carry out their activities, explains a Western intelligence official.
And the hope will be that large-scale expulsions will make that, in addition to traditional espionage, much more difficult now, especially since there will be fewer spies to watch.
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