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For: The Opinion Updated 18 May 2022, : 37 pm EDT
This Tuesday, the average price of gasoline in California reached $6 for the first time per gallon, so JPMorgan analysts have warned that amount could become the national average before the summer is out.
“There is a real risk that the price will hit $6 or more a gallon in August,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of global oil and commodity research at JPMorgan. , to CNN in an email on Tuesday .
The national average for regular gasoline was up another two cents on Tuesday at a record $4.54 dollars per gallon, according to AAA.
The increase occurs after last week the Prices had been rising steadily. In addition, this same Tuesday, in the 18 states of the country the price of gasoline reached $4 dollars.
Georgia, Kansas and Oklahoma were the last three states with an average price below $4 a gallon as of Monday.
The average price of regular gasoline in California exceeded $6 dollars per gallon on Tuesday.
JPMorgan is concerned that it will be difficult to satisfy the intense demand during the holiday season this summer, taking into account that the US gasoline inventories are at their lowest seasonal levels since 2019.
“With the expectation of a strong boost in demand… the retail price in the United States could upload another 37% pair to August“, JPMorgan wrote in its report, appropriately titled “Cruel Summer”.
However, other analysts have been skeptical of JPMorgan’s predictions and point out that before reaching that price, consumers would simply stop buying gasoline, so demand would drop.
“Personally, I think we would see a recession before we see a national average of $6 dollars ,” Patrick De Haan, head of oil analysis at GasBuddy, told CNN.
De Haan said he disagrees with JPMorgan, at least not yet . However, given the growing imbalance between supply and demand , admitted: “I don’t think there are many things that are impossible in this market”. may continue below our expectations”.
So far this year, gasoline demand has been below JPMorgan’s original expectations by an average of some 500 ,000 barrels per day .
Analysts are still waiting on how consumers would react, given that families tired of the restrictions due to covid-19 are eager to go out this summer , and face a choice between high gas prices gasoline and very high airfares.
Federal government forecasters expect gasoline prices to fall below $4 per gallon during the second half of the year.
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