The risk of a nuclear escalation due to the Russia-Ukraine war is all too real, and we are in a heightened state of danger such as we have not seen in more than 30 years since the end of the Cold War, experts agree.
“It could escalate to the use of long-range nuclear weapons, which would kill 90 millions of people instantly,” said Daryl Kimball, director of the Gun Control Association and editor and contributor to the organization’s monthly magazine Arms Control Today during the videoconference: How real is the threat of nuclear war?, organized by Ethnic Media Services.
He said that even a nuclear threat could escalate beyond Ukraine’s borders, so we need to be on the lookout for short-range tactical warheads.
“The Russians have about 1,000, but there is no indication that they are being taken out of storage.”
He added that Putin’s nuclear threats are unprecedented in the post-cold war era, in the sense that we have not seen a leader of the United States or Russia doing them.
“In my view, the clear purpose of Putin’s threats is to prevent a direct military intervention by the United States or of NATO in Ukraine. Fortunately, President Biden has not matched Putin’s nuclear plants. It even canceled a scheduled flight test of a ballistic missile so as not to send the wrong message to Russia”.
He added that it is a fact that both Russian and American military strategies reserve the option of using nuclear weapons against non-nuclear threats in extreme circumstances.
“And that means that the conventional conflict between the United States and worked in NATO with Russia could become nuclear”.
¿ Are we already in a Cold War?
Michael Klare, professor emeritus and director of the program Five College in Global Peace and Security Studies at Hampshire College , said that since 2018, there is a new military strategy launched by the US Department of Defense, engaged in a competition long-term global relationship with Russia and China.
“This was present and well understood long before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. To what extent it influenced his decision to invade Ukraine, this will be something for future historians to decide”.
But he said that it certainly implies a greater threat to Russia than existed before, in particular, to the weapons that the US has been developing and deploying in Europe, aimed at attacking Russian military assets on Russian territory and destroying its military capabilities.
He added that conventional weapons could represent a strategic threat to Russia , which could trigger the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
“The same thing is happening in Asia, where the US is developing its capacity to use conventional weapons, including hypersonic missiles aimed at mainland China in the event of a conflict in the South China Sea or over Taiwan.
So he mentioned that this has created anxiety in both China and Russia; and it is the backdrop to Ukraine.”
He stated that Congress has abandoned its spending priorities on infrastructure, education and health, and instead only talks about increasing military spending and spending more money on US weapons designed to fight China and Russia.
“It is spending more and more on weapons nuclear weapons that, if not used, represent a greater threat to the Russian forces”.
What are the scenarios for a greater conflict
Gabriela Iveliz Rosa Hernández, associate researcher at the Arms Control Association, said that Russia’s problem is that it perceives that it is losing its influence in Ukraine.
“So now we have a Russia that has changed its military objectives and maintains a slow and steady campaign, particularly in the eastern part of Ukraine and some parts of the south”.
Both sides have made it clear they don’t want to fight. “President Zelenskyy said that he really wants an agreement and to stop fighting.”
However, he pointed out that Russia seemed very determined to continue attacking Ukraine.
“So what are the scenarios for a broader conflict?… Russia is not happy because it is losing its influence in Ukraine and using a nuclear weapon would absolutely not help. Maybe I can try with these nuclear threats to coerce Ukraine, which is very unlikely”.
How will this end?
Noted that the negotiations have completely stalled, and the last report of possible negotiations was seen at early March, when a possible ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops were being discussed.
“There was an expectation, at least according to Ukrainian officials, that Ukraine expected compensation from Russia. And there was also the issue of giving security guarantees to Ukraine so that it feels safe and prevents Russia from taking its territory if it ever decides to do so”.
But currently, he said, he does not see a stop the fire in the short term.
The nuclear threat
Andrew Nynka, editor-in-chief of the weekly The Ukrainian and Svoboda of the National Association of Ukraine, said to the question of how real it is that Russia uses nuclear weapons, that the current conflict is a physical war with tanks, bombs, weapons with the potential of the use of nuclear weapons.
“Ukrainians have shown themselves to be not only exceptionally brave in physical warfare, but also incredibly skillful in information warfare. And that includes the use of different memes and social networks. Obviously a big part of that is propaganda.”
And he added that Putin wants the Western world and his enemies to worry about the real possibility that he will use a nuclear weapon.