Photo: ALEXANDER NEMENOV / AFP / Getty Images
If the war spreads, Ukraine may lose 18 years of economic progress, with up to 90 % of its population living in or at risk of poverty within a period of 12 months, according to estimates by the UN Development Program (UNDP) published last Wednesday.
These projections, the first made by the UNDP on the impact of the conflict, indicate that during the next year almost a third of Ukrainians could live below the poverty line, 12 times more people than would have been anticipated without the war.
“Although the need for immediate humanitarian assistance for Ukrainians is of the utmost importance, the severe development impacts of a protracted conflict are becoming more apparent,” UNDP Administrator Achim St. einer.
Therefore, the UN agency maintains that it is necessary to give specific support to the Ukrainian government to that it can continue to offer basic services to the population, in addition to the humanitarian response already underway.
The UNDP indicates that, according to the Ukrainian government, infrastructure worth at least $100, has already been destroyed million dollars, including roads, bridges, hospitals or schools. The war has also forced half of the country’s businesses to close and the rest to operate far below normal.
To mitigate the impact on the population, the UNDP study proposes possible measures such as a program of money transfers to the most needy people
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According to the document, a budget of $250 million dollars per month would partially cover the loss of income for 2.6 million people who are projected to fall into poverty. Meanwhile, temporarily offering a basic income system, with $5,50 dollars per day per person, would cost about $430 million dollars per month.
The World Bank anticipates that the country will lose about half of its economy, to the point of suffering a collapse greater than that of Germany and Japan after World War II.