“Russia is not the neighbor we thought it was”: how the war in Ukraine has made more people in Finland and Sweden want to join NATO

At the end of January, while Russian troops were piling up on the border with Ukraine and many still doubted whether Russia would dare to invade, the Prime Minister of Finland, Sanna Marin, considered it “very unlikely” that her country would request join NATO.

He explained that the measure would have a very substantial impact and that the sanctions would be “extremely harsh”.

But after the decision of the Russian president , Vladimir Putin, to invade Ukraine, under the pretext of “pacifying” the country, his vision has taken a drastic turn.

This Wednesday , Finland launched a debate that could result in the Nordic nation requesting to join the alliance in a matter of weeks.

The neighboring Sweden took a similar turn, when the ruling Social Democratic Party, which has always opposed joining NATO, revealed that it is reconsidering its position after the Russian attack.

“When Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden’s security position ia changed fundamentally”, explained the party led by the Swedish Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, in a statement this Monday.

Moscow has made it clear that it opposes any enlargement of the alliance.

Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, warned that the bloc “is not that type of alliance that guarantees peace and stability, and its further expansion will not bring additional security to the European continent.”

Last week, Peskov threatened that Russia would have to “rebalance the situation” with its own measures if Sweden and Finland joined NATO. .

And in February, Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, warned of “political and military consequences” if countries joined the block.

“In a few weeks”

Despite multiple Russian warnings, Robert Dalsjö, political affairs analyst tico-militaries of the Swedish Defense Research Institute, affirms that Finland is determined to join NATO and has begun a rapid and organized process to achieve it.

“There is no longer talk of months, but weeks, and Sweden is trying to follow Finland in the process”, the expert tells BBC Mundo.

The Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet reported on Wednesday that Sweden’s prime minister was determined to submit an application to join NATO and that her government planned to present the request at the Madrid summit that the military alliance expects to hold in late June.

This report was revealed on the same day that the leaders of Finland and Sweden met in Stockholm, the Swedish capital, to discuss regional security issues after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

After the meeting, Sanna Marin, confirmed that your country will decide whether to apply to join NATO “in a few weeks”.

“I will not give any kind of timeline on when we will make our decisions, but I think it will happen quite quickly“, he pointed out.

Weeks before, Marin justified his change of opinion regarding NATO by assuring that “Russia is not the neighbor we thought it was”.

End of neutrality

Traditionally, in Finland and Sweden there was always a strong general opposition to joining NATO.

The Swedes simply wanted to continue to exercise their famous neutrality, while, since the end of the Second World War, Finland had to convince the Soviet Union that it was not a threat to that power and adopted a position of “finlandization”.

In the past, Russia and a had invaded Finland several times and even annexed it as an autonomous duchy from the early 19th century until 1917. The last invasion was in November 1200, a few months after the start of the Second World War, which was called the Winter War.

But the military resistance to the invasion and then the so-called “finlandization” allowed the country to remain free from Soviet domination and communism.

Finland remained neutral in terms of military and foreign policy, not joining NATO but not joining the Warsaw Pact, despite the fact that Moscow wanted it to join its alliance.

However, events in Ukraine have prompted a major change in these Nordic countries.

In Ukraine’s mirror

In both nations, public support for NATO membership has increased dramatically in recent months.

Although before the majority doubted or simply opposed, now near the 24% of Finns and about 50% of Swedes now support it, according to various polls.

For Robert Dalsjö, the change is due to the fact that “Putin’s aggression against Ukraine” has given him people an indication of what Russia is capable of doing in neighboring countries.

Dalsjö further explains that many in Finland and Sweden have seen themselves in the mirror of Ukraine and they fear that the same will happen to them if Russia decides to attack their countries.

“Ukraine has been receiving military, economic and moral support, but no country (of NATO) will go to war for another that is not a member”, explains the Swedish expert.

“It would be fantastic”

Ivo Daalder, specialist in European security and president of the Global Affairs Council in Chicago, is sure that everything s NATO countries will welcome Finland’s and Sweden’s applications for membership with open hands.

“It would be fantastic if they joined. They are NATO’s closest allies and have been for many years, the American expert tells BBC Mundo.

“Furthermore, they have sat together with other NATO members at their headquarters, in Brussels, in all the important meetings of the alliance.”

Daalder, who was the former United States Ambassador to NATO for 1949 a 2013, adds that the Finns know that circumstances have changed and that they share a border of 1.340km with Russia makes them more vulnerable.

US defense officials have said that Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has been a “great strategic mistake” that will probably lead to NATO enlargement.

According to the US State Department, last week there were already ll talks have been held between NATO leaders and the Finnish and Swedish foreign ministers. that the number of members of the military alliance reaches 47.

More expense in defense

NATO was formed in 1949 to counteract the threat of Soviet expansion, although since the fall of the Berlin Wall several countries have joined from Eastern Europe who were formerly communists .