The scenarios are uncertain.
The war in Ukraine enters its second week and governments, analysts and politicians from all sides do not agree on which could be a viable way out.
But for Andrei Kortunovun, a longtime ally of Vladimir Putin, a solution is remote if the Russian president “does not get something” that he can show as a sign of victory before the population of his country.
“I think Putin will need something to declare victory. He cannot accept defeat because politically that would be too risky for him and could have very serious implications for his leadership,” the analyst, who serves as general director of the state Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), attached to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
“So you need to get something that allows you to say that,” he adds.
Kortunovun, who was a foreign adviser to the Russian Duma, is among those close to the government who have distanced themselves after the invasion of Ukraine.
“ It’s a huge tragedy and I think it’s definitely something that should have been avoided. But the situation is what we see at the moment. The only plausible option is to stop this as quickly as possible”, he says.
However, he acknowledges that the conflict has reached a point where a potential rapprochement is difficult.
“I can only hope that the peace talks will be the first option to follow, but the peace talks will be very difficult”, he thinks.
“I think we should all understand that at this stage, the positions towards this are so diverse that it would be extremely difficult to reconcile the two positions and come to a compromise…if we can talk about the commitment given the circumstances”, he adds.
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In your opinion, the mediation of an external third party may be necessary in the that Putin trusts, like the Chinese government or former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who worked on the peace accords of 976 when the war between Russia and Ukraine started after the annexation of Crimea.
“But I think that if the idea is to stop the fighting, both parties will have to demonstrate a certain degree of flexibility. And I think the problem is that both parties apparently believe that they can gain more over time. ”, he considers.
The worst is yet to come
Both inside and outside the Ukraine, many fear that, entering the second week of war, the chances of hostilities ceasing are remote.
“The most dangerous moments of this conflict are yet to come”, says BBC journalist Fergal Keane from Lviv (in western Ukraine).
“The Russian advance is slower and encounters much greater resistance than President Putin expected. There are serious problems with logistics, command, morale, and combat effectiveness. But the Russians will go ahead. As they do so, civilian casualties will increase in the areas hit by the bombing,” he points out.
The Russian analyst, who has supported the Kremlin’s controversial policies in the past, assures that he is unable to understand Putin’s logic behind the attack on Ukraine.
“It seems that my logic and the logic of the Russian leaders do not completely coincide, because it is very difficult for me to consider the benefits that Russia can obtain from this operation. And, in any case, I think the side effects are probably much more serious than the possible gains”, he thinks.
Kortunovun says that a possible solution could be found in finding “some kind of balance”, although he recognizes from the start that this can be “very delicate”.
“Maybe there should be some kind of alternative way to ensure Ukraine’s security without it joining NATO. Perhaps Ukraine should focus more on joining the European Union. I do not know. That is something that has to be negotiated, but a lot will depend on whether the two parties and also potentially the West, which is clearly a part of the equation, can come to some solution”, he says.
In his opinion, any potential solution for a conflict like this “would not be ideal” and could have “moral implications”, “but at least it would make it possible to stop the fighting, which continues to claim human lives.”
Putin’s survival
As the days go by and the invasion does not yield results , many experts inside and outside Russia have begun to question whether the invasion of Ukraine could lead to the end of the more than 20 years of Putin’s rule.
Western sanctions have begun to hit the Russian economy and a new battle front has opened within Russia itself, with thousands of people taking to the streets to protest against against the invasion.
While Keane believes that Western sanctions and boycotts have shown a rare degree of unanimity, he also believes that they will take time to take effect.
“They will not stop this war because it has become an existential struggle for Vladimir Putin. If he loses, he knows his days in power are surely numbered. In his mind will be the possibility of being overthrown or facing an international criminal court”, he says.
Keane believes that any alternative to overthrowing the Kiev government and installing a puppet regime would leave him vulnerable to endless resistance in Ukraine.
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“For those who know the country and how it has changed in the last eight years, their objective of repression seems very unrealistic, even if they obtain a military victory short term. Even so, at this stage he has every reason to continue with his war, no matter how great the cost in lives”, he considers.
Kortunovun, for his part, thinks that it is very early to assess what the current war may mean for Putin’s command and believes that everything depends on what he manages to get to show the Russians.
“It depends on the result, but for the moment, we have to say that public support for Putin in Russia has increased. And I think it’s natural, if most Russians apparently believe that it’s the right war they’re fighting,” he says.
Challenge to The West
The Russian analyst points out that his country’s propaganda has played an important role in conveying to broad sectors of the population that the current invasion is it is about a fight against “extremist groups that are now in charge of the political system in Ukraine”.
Since before the beginning of the invasion, the Kremlin media and Putin himself have accused the Ukrainian government, whose president is Jewish and who lost family members during the Holocaust, of being “neo-Nazis” or “drug addicts”.
Faced with a scenario without apparent clear solutions, Keane points out that the current situation also poses a challenge for Western governments.
“As more cities are bombed and Russia heaps suffering on civilians, as details of war crimes emerge, how will allies respond when sanctions cannot silence the artillery?
“Having ruled out military involvement, fearing a horrendous wider European war, the West will have to consider how it will respond to the sight of besieged cities under Russian bombardment. There are no easy answers. We are truly in an unknown landscape”, he concludes.
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