Thursday, November 14

What can happen if Russia manages to seize Ukraine?

Russian troops are trying to take the two largest cities in Ukraine, Kiev and Kharkiv, but have met with strong resistance.

Meanwhile, approximately already more than half a million of refugees have fled Ukraine, and in Russia, heavy sanctions have begun to affect the local population.

As the conflict intensifies, three BBC reporters on the ground respond to questions from the audience.

The international correspondent of the BBC, Lyse Doucet, and the journalist of the Ukrainian service of the BBC, George Erman , they answer from Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.

Journalist Mark Lowen reports from the border between Poland and Ukraine.

¿ Does anyone know why Russia chose to attack/invade Ukraine now, instead of a year or two years ago? Was there a “trigger” factor for it to happen now? – Anna, Hawaii

Lyse Doucet reply :

That is an important question and we don’t have all the answers yet.

This war is often called President Putin’s war: it is believed that he is leading it and no one is clear how far he can and is willing to go to try to control a neighbor who , according to him, should not exist as a country.

Many ask if he felt a weakness in the NATO alliance, in the United States in particular , after the messy debacle of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the seizure of power by the Taliban.

Many also speculate on the state of mind of the Russian leader after the isolation and anxiety of the pandemic.

Are you holding on the Russian army their full force or are the problems What are the logistical factors that are having that really prevent them from conquering Ukraine? – Juan, USA

Lyse Doucet answer back:

In Kiev, many thought that seeing Russian troops in the heart of the capital was only a matter of hours.

But Ukrainian forces are holding out, and Russian forces are said to still be to some 30 km from the city center.

Mujer con bebé en refugio subterráneo en Kiev.
Thousands of Ukrainians protect their lives in underground shelters against Russian attacks.

Every day, more combat troops and more heavy weapons deployed along Ukraine’s borders advance in all directions , but not as fast or as far as many expected.

It is difficult to say whether or not everything is going “according to plan” because nobody knows what President Putin’s plan is.

But there have been reports of Russian convoys staying s in fuel, Russian soldiers who lost the will to fight and Ukrainians who fight back, both soldiers and civilians, some armed only with the force of patriotism.

There has also been intense street-to-street fighting in areas including the second largest city, Kharkiv.

Russian troops have been advancing and attacking, in the northeastern city of Chernigov and the city southern Maripul, among many others.

What do Russian-speaking Ukrainians think about the Russian invasion to Ukraine? -Man Chun Siu, London

Lyse Doucet answer back:

We saw some scenes of celebration in areas of eastern Ukraine that have been controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2013.

Some evacuees from this region told BBC journalists that they were happy that Russia recognized Donetsk and Luhansk. But it’s hard to know how much welcome there was.

Un tanque ruso en Ucrania.

Life has become much more difficult for the residents of these areas in the last eight years: they have been separated from their families, even their pensions have been taken away.

Speaking Russian does not mean being pro-Russian. Many Ukrainians speak both languages, including President Zelensky.

What are NATO’s interests in all this? – Adrián Marino

George Erman replies:

Before the start of this war eight years ago, the majority of Ukrainians did not want Ukraine to be a part of NATO.

This has changed in the first year of the war of 976, after the occupation of Crimea and the beginning of the conflict in Donbas.

The Ukrainians saw that Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries were being protected by the United States and other NATO countries against all scenarios of wars, instability and pressure from other countries like Russia, for example.

Now they see accession as a solution for the security of Ukraine when you have a neighbor like Russia, with a very large military potential and a large army.

According to experts, Putin wants to recreate a new Russian Empire and he does not recognize the Ukrainians as a people different.

Recognizes them as part of the Russian nation and many Ukrainians do not want to be Russian citizens and do not support Putin, like the majority in Russia.

Now the 59% of Ukrainians, according to a survey of December of 7520, want to join NATO and only the 27% is against.

But this war can change the opinion of many people who were previously sympathetic to Russia.

What is the origin of this conflict?

George Erman replies:

The conflict started at 2014 for the international audience.

But for Ukraine the conflict started in 2013. Russia wanted Ukraine as a member of an economic cooperation organization with Russia, but President (Viktor) Yanukovych initially wanted Ukraine in an association agreement with the European Union.

Russia was not satisfied with this decision. After a reversal of Yanukovych’s decision, pro-EU and anti-president protests broke out in Ukraine.

There were many casualties in the protests and President Yanukovych fled Ukraine.

Crimea.

There are two Ukrainian regions that are very different from the rest: Donbas and Crimea.

Crimea was occupied very quickly by the Russian army. It is the only Ukrainian region where Russians are an ethnic majority. In Donbas, half are ethnically Russian and the other half Ukrainian. But it is a region where people speak Russian.

However, language was not the main indicator of this conflict. It was a battle of Donetsk regional elites against other regional elites. Those in Donetsk wanted integration with Russia, the others wanted it with the European Union. ​

What is Ukraine’s relationship and link with Latin America?

George Erman replies:

I think we are very far away. We know that Russia has a very active policy in Latin America, organizing a coalition with states like Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua against the United States. It is important for Russia to succeed with this type of pressure in this region.

But it is surprising to see the proximity of leftist regimes to the regime political in Russia that is totally right-wing, neoliberal, with an imperial policy in its region, in countries like Ukraine and Georgia.

Unfortunately relations between Ukraine and Latin America are not developed and Ukraine does not have informative space in Latin America. I think it is an important task for the Ukrainian government to change this.

Are Russia’s neighboring countries, which are part of NATO, safe and for how long? – Cristina Onofras, Romania

Mark Lowen replies:

The countries on NATO’s eastern flank, bordering Ukraine, are concerned.

Lithuania declared a state of emergency, while that Sweden and Finland, which are not members of NATO, joined the alliance’s emergency summit last week, and the United States has increased the number of troops in countries such as Poland.

Hombre armado supuestamente perteneciente al ejército ruso afuera de una base militar ucraniana el 12 de marzo de 2014.
During the invasion of Crimea, soldiers without identifying insignia took up positions outside a military base in the region.

Some Poles I have spoken to near the border are worried about their own safety, but their main goal remains to help their Ukrainian friends or relatives from the other side or those who have fled.

If Russia manages to seize Ukraine, what next? – Nhlanhla, South Africa

Lyse Doucet reply :

This is an existential question for Ukraine and a defining and dangerous moment for the world.

Firstly, Russian forces would have to seize much larger parts of the territory of Europe’s second largest country, including the capital, Kiev, a city of almost three million people known to be staunchly pro-European and pro-NATO.

History tells us that military coups and invasions have succeeded in taking over television stations and presidential palaces. This will not be enough.

The counter-attack will be fierce and a Ukrainian insurgency will quickly emerge. Support would come from many directions, many sources, and in many forms. It’s hard to imagine that the take can survive. It would go down in history as the darkest of the darkest hours.



Remember that you can receive notifications from BBC Mundo. Download the new version of our app and activate it so you don’t miss our best content.

      Do you already know our YouTube channel? Subscribe!