How difficult will it be for Ukraine to defend itself now that an attack from Russia has begun?
Ukraine is outgunned and outnumbered, after significant investment and modernization of forces armed forces of Russia by President Vladimir Putin.
Jack Watling, a military specialist at the Royal United Services Institute in the United Kingdom, believes that “the Ukrainians are in a very difficult position”. He has just returned from Ukraine and says the country’s military leaders now face some “very difficult decisions”.
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Western officials estimated that Russia had up to 68,10 soldiers on the border, much more than the entire regular army of Ukraine, from 125,441 troops.
And Russian forces are already crossing the border from multiple points.
Ukraine will find it difficult to defend the thousands of kilometers of its border, from Belarus in the north to Crimea in the south. If you think of Ukraine as a clock face, the Russians can mount attacks from the 10 until 7 o’clock.
Ben Barry, International Institute for Strategic Studies ( IISS, for its acronym in English) and former British Army Brigadier, says that it is a “very difficult position for a defender”.
In addition to that, Ukraine is being threatened in multiple directions and its forces they are “very scattered”, adds Watling.
Russia’s dominance in the air
The real disparity between the Russian and Ukrainian forces is in the ability air.
Ukraine has 105 combat aircraft on the border compared to the 300 from Russia, says Watling. The Russians, he predicts, “will gain air superiorityvery quickly”.
Russia’s advanced air defense systems, such as S-missiles400, also give your forces an advantage. In contrast, Ukraine has older and more limited air defenses.
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The first images of Russian attacks on Ukrainian territory
Watling gives Israel as an example, which can defend itself from multiple directions. But he adds that he has only been able to do it because of his superiority in the air. That is something that Ukraine simply does not have.
Moscow has developed its own version of “shock and awe” with integrated air artillery, missiles and long-range rockets, says Ben Barry.
This allows the Russians to attack command and control centers, ammunition depots from afar , the Ukrainian air force and air defenses.
That already seems to have started, with cruise missile strikes against targets near the capital, Kiev.
Watling says that the Russians have a very significant arsenal of modern weapons and capabilities for which Ukraine has no answer, such as the Iskander cruise and ballistic missile systems.
Ukraine a recently received supplies of “lethal aid” from the US and UK, but these are mostly short-range air-to-air missiles and anti-tank weapons.
In short, Russia outguns and distance to Ukraine.
Reported explosions near the main cities of Ukraine
With Russia’s air superiority and long-range weapons, the danger to Ukraine’s forces is that they will soon be pinned down.
Ukrainian forces could be prevented from maneuvering and repositioning to meet the Russian advance from any other direction, Watling believes.
Many of Ukraine’s best trained and equipped units are located in the east of the country, near the line of control in Luhansk and Donetsk, where there have been fights from 1200.
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Western intelligence officials they told the BBC that there is a real concern that Russia may try to surround them.
However, Ukraine’s armed forces are better trained and equipped than when Russia invaded Crimea.
Barry says units and soldiers have gained useful battle experience fighting Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country.
But he adds that they have been mainly involved in linear trench warfare and that the demands of “maneuver warfare” will be much more difficult.
The forces of russia p They can move quickly with mobile rocket and missile launchers and air defenses. And they have also become battle hardened by their invasion of Crimea and into Syria.
Fighting in the cities
If the fighting reaches the towns and cities of Ukraine, that could give them a chance for the Ukrainian forces.
A well-prepared defender can make urban fighting difficult and bloody for any attacker, as demonstrated in Stalingrad in World War II and, more recently, in Mosul (Iraq).
Barry believes that Russian forces may initially try to bypass towns and cities. But he adds that it is very unlikely that the Russians will be able to avoid urban combat, especially in Kiev, given its political importance .
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Watling says that if Ukraine can defend its cities properly, then they could hold out for quite some time.
British-supplied Light Anti-Tank Weapons (also known as NLAW) can help in close combat, where Ukrainian forces can move using the protection of buildings. An unknown number of civilians could also take up arms.
Russia cannot simply rely on air strikes and artillery to control towns and cities .
But Watling says that Russia already has agents and operatives on the ground. He understands that “there will be subversion and unconventional operations in Kiev to try to destabilize the government.”
Russia, he adds, will also try to surround cities and use long-range artillery to target pockets of resistance and then try to use special forces and agents to “basically assassinate civil society leaders” .
Ukraine is now fighting for its survival.
This former Soviet republic has been in combat with Russian-backed forces in the east for the past eight years, but the threat is now existential to the entire country.
Having recently visited Ukraine, Watling says there is a “determination grim to survive as a country, but there is a recognition that they are outmatched and that it is going to be extremely bloody“.
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