The president of the United States, Joe Biden, said on Wednesday that he believes that his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, “will intervene” in Ukraine, but he does not want a “full-fledged war”. It did so after the US reaffirmeda, together with the European Union, NATO and the OSCE, the defense of the “existing European security architecture” and its determination to resolve the crisis through diplomatic channels with “a strong, clear and united transatlantic front”. His Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, who will meet this Friday with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Lavrov in Geneva, he warned that Russia could attack Ukraine “in a very short time”. In this text, Katya Adler analyzes the situation from Europe’s point of view.
“Europe is closer to war now than it has been since the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia”.
These are the harsh words of warning from a senior diplomat from the European Union with whom I have just spoken off the record about the current tensions with Moscow, due to its enormous reinforcement military on the border with Ukraine.
The mood in Brussels is nervous. There is real fear that Europe may be slipping into its worst security crisis in decades.
But the anguish is not entirely focused on the prospect of a large and prolonged ground war with Russia over Ukraine.
Few in Europe believe that Moscow has the military power, let alone the money or internal popular support to carry it out.
It is true that the EU has warned the Kremlin of “extreme consequences” if it undertakes military action in neighboring Ukraine.
The new German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, was in Kiev and Moscow and said exactly that on Monday.
Sweden moved hundreds of soldiers over the weekend to its strategically important island of Gotland, which is located in the Baltic Sea.
And Denmark reinforced its presence in the region a few days earlier.
The rising tensions have also reignited the debate in both Finland and Sweden as to whether both now should join NATO.
But the main concern in the West -Washington, NATO, the UK and the EU- is not so much the possibility of a conventional war on Ukraine, but rather that Moscow is trying to divide and destabilize Europe, shaking the continental balance of power in favor of the Kremlin.
The Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, told me late last year that the West needed to “wake up from its geopolitical lethargy” regarding Moscow’s intentions.
- USA assures that Russia is preparing a sabotage operation in Ukraine to justify an invasion
- Russia’s “radical” demands on NATO to ease tensions over the build-up of troops near Ukraine
Other EU countries would say that now they have woken up and can see the problem.
But, as is often the case when it comes to foreign policy, EU leaders are far from agreeing on what measures to take.
Moscow , despite the massive build-up of troops on the border with Ukraine, denies that he is planning a military invasion.
But he sent NATO a list of security demands.
Blaming open Directly at the alliance for “undermining regional security,” Russian President Vladimir Putin insists, among other things, that NATO bar Ukraine and other ex-Soviet states from becoming members of the organization.
NATO flatly refused and the three summits held over the last week, between Russia and the Western allies, failed to find many points in common.
What Vladimir Putin plans to do next is unclear.
But the West believes that the Kremlin has invested too much in its public maneuvers on Ukraine to back down now, having nothing to show for it.
The government of the American Joe Biden is eagerly awaiting a strong position from the EU on possible sanctions, depending on how Moscow proceeds: a military incursion into Ukraine, cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns or, as is considered more likely, a combination of hybrid attacks.
Possible sanctions
EU optimists predict that the bloc will agree on a series of possible sanctions before 24 in January, at the next meeting of foreign ministers.
But that is far from guaranteed.
Several EU countries are undecided due to the cost of possible sanctions for their own economies.
Brussels normally talks about sharing the burden, but the result of these negotiations may not be to everyone’s liking.
There is also widespread concern in EU countries about gas supplies from Russia, especially with prices already very high for European households this winter.
Washington says it is looking at ways to soften the impact on energy supply.
He wants to rush the EU to agree on a firm position on sanctions, knowing full well that, in foreign policy, approval must be unanimous among the Member States.
If post-Brexit relations between the UK and the EU were better, it would be expected that there would be more diplomatic efforts at this time between London, Berlin and Paris to compare and discuss ideas, perhaps agreeing on a common plan of action.
Brussels diplomats describe, with some malice, to the UK government as “probably too involved in internal political scandals for geopolitics to be on their list of priorities at the moment”.
But they openly admit that within the NATO, the United Kingdom is totally committed to the Russia-Ukraine problem.
On Monday, the British Secretary of Defense, Ben Wallace, announced that his country would send Ukraine anti-tank missiles of cor to range for self-defence.
He said a small team of British soldiers would also provide training.
Wallace previously warned Moscow that there would be “consequences” of any Russian aggression against Ukraine.
The UK would “stand up to the bullies” no matter how far removed from the conflict, indicated.
Washington insists there is no time to lose.
He points out that the Kremlin is considering a “false flag” operation, which “will prepare the ground for having the option of inventing a pretext for the invasion”; that is, blaming Ukraine for an attack that would be carried out by Russian agents.
The Kremlin dismissed Washington’s claim as “unfounded”.
But US officials say Moscow is preparing to repeat the pattern seen in 2014, when he accused Kiev of abuses before Kremlin-backed forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula.
The territory has a Russian-speaking majority. And he later voted to join Russia in a referendum that Ukraine and the West consider illegal. Thousands died in that conflict.
The West is preparing for what could happen next.
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