Are Russian forces preparing for war in Ukraine? That is undoubtedly the fear between Western leaders and Ukraine itself.
The presidents of Russia and the United States, Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, held a meeting on Tuesday via video call in which The tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border was the most prominent issue.
Biden insisted on warning that the United States will not watch a Russian invasion of its neighbors impassively, and Putin said he has no plans to do so.
Just seven years ago, Russia seized part of Ukraine and supported the separatists that started a conflict in large areas of the east.
Ukraine shares borders with the European Union, on one side, and with Russia, on the other. And as a former Soviet republic, it has deep social and cultural ties to Russia; so much so that even though it is not the official language, Russian is widely spoken there.
Russia has long resisted rapprochement of Ukraine towards the European institutions , and its key demand is that it never one to NATO or have NATO infrastructure on its territory.
When the Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian president in 2014, Russia seized and later annexed the Crimean peninsula, south of Ukraine, and separatists backed by Russia captured large tracts of the eastern territories of Ukraine known as Dombas.
1. Is there a real threat of invasion?
The conflict in the east continues to this day. Ukraine says Russia has sent tanks, artillery and snipers to the front lines in rebel-held areas. But they are the 90. 000 Russian soldiers reported near the border with Ukraine those of greatest concern.
There is no sense of an imminent threat or even that the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has decided to invasion. The Kremlin spokesman has urged all parties to keep a “cool head.” But Western intelligence services, as well as Ukraine’s, believe it could happen sometime in early 2022.
“The most likely time to be prepared for the escalation will be at the end of January, ”said Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
US intelligence says that even 175. 000 Russian soldiers could be involved as early as January and CIA Director William Burns believes Putin “is putting the Russian army and security services in a place from which they could act quite extensively.” .
The conflict has been at this point before, in April of this year, but this time Russia carried out smaller-scale military exercises and then withdrew. Before the two-hour video call between Putin and US President Joe Biden on December 7, five Western leaders called on Moscow to “lower tensions.”
2. What does Russia say?
Russia initially described satellite photos showing troop build-ups in Crimea and not far from eastern Ukraine as alarmists. But in early December, a presidential aide said: “ T we have the right to move troops into our territory “, and denied that this amounted to an escalation.
Moscow responded by accusing Ukraine of deploying in the east of the country half of its army, some 125. 000 people, and claiming that Kiev was planning to attack areas controlled by Russian-backed separatists. Ukraine says it is nothing less than “nonsensical propaganda” to cover up Russia’s own plans.
The affirmation of Russia could become a justification for military action.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, number two on the international affairs committee of the Council of the Federation of Russia said in early December that half a million Ukrainians in rebel-held areas now have Russian passports. “Of course, we cannot abandon our compatriots” if they ask Russia for help, he said.
3. What does Russia want?
Putin warned the West not to not cross Russia’s “red lines” on Ukraine .
But what are those red lines?
One of them is to stop the expansion to the east and deploy weapons in neighboring countries that could threaten Russia. There is particular hostility towards the deployment of Turkish drones by Ukraine against Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine and towards western military exercises in the Black Sea.
Speaking in late November, Putin noted that “common sense and responsibility for their own countries and the world community will ultimately prevail.”
In July 2015, the Russian leader published an extensive account on the Kremlin website in which he detailed the history of the two nations together and targeted Ukraine’s current leaders for running an “anti-Russian project.”
For those who sought to turn Ukraine against Russia, “in this way they will destroy their own country,” he said.
Russia is also frustrated because the Minsk peace agreement of 2015 intended ad Ending the conflict in Ukraine is far from over. There are still no arrangements for independently supervised elections in the separatist regions. Russia denies complaints from Ukraine and the West that it is part of the protracted conflict.
4. What is the state of relations between the US and Russia?
According to the Kremlin, relations between Moscow and Washington “ not have a satisfactory moment ”.
“The Russian side proposed to do tabula rasa of all the accumulated restrictions regarding the operation of diplomatic missions, which could allow normalizing other aspects of bilateral relations “between the two, he indicated. the Kremlin in its statement.
On the other hand, “Biden expressed the deep concern of the United States ” and its “allies Europeans on the escalation of Russian forces around Ukraine , “said the White House.
5. How is NATO helping Ukraine?
NATO’s western military alliance is defensive and its secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has made it clear that any military support is purely in that sense.
The UK is ready to help Ukraine build two naval bases: in Ochákiv on the Black Sea and in Berdyansk in the Sea of Azov. US Javelin (anti-tank) missiles have also been dispatched to Ukraine and two US Coast Guard patrol boats have been delivered to the Navy.
“Depends on Ukraine and 30 allies decide when Ukraine is ready to join the alliance, ”Stoltenberg said. Russia “has no veto or right to interfere in this process,” he added.
6. How far will the West go for Ukraine?
The United States has made clear that it is committed to helping Ukraine defend its “sovereign territory,” but Biden said the action military is not on the table.
So even if the United States refuses to recognize Russia’s “red lines” on the accession of Ukraine to NATO or anything else, how far will it go to help Kiev?
The biggest tool in the West’s arsenal seems to be sanctions . Biden spoke of “very real costs” if Russia takes military action, and US officials are talking about strong economic measures and support for the Ukrainian military.
The UK Foreign Minister, Vicky Ford also said that British officials are considering an extension of defensive support.
As for economic measures, the biggest tool could threaten to disconnect Russia’s banking system from the international Swift payment system. That has always been considered the last resort.
Another key threat is preventing the opening of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Germany , and Germany’s energy regulator he is debating whether or not to approve.
There could also be measures targeting the Russian Fund for Direct Investment or restrictions on banks converting rubles into foreign currency.
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