While the world continues to watch the migrant crisis between Belarus and Poland, another more silent escalation looms over Eastern Europe.
For days, Russia has begun to move a considerable number of troops and military equipment towards the border with Ukraine, to the point that several governments, including the US and the European Union (EU), have warned about the possibility of an attack this winter.
Kiev and Moscow have been technically at war for more than seven years (when Putin invaded and annexed Crimea) and border clashes and Russian military movements are frequent in the area.
In fact, last spring, alarms also sounded when Russian tanks deployed on the Ukrainian border.
However, several Western intelligence sources have expressed fear that the situation is now worse.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine estimates that more than 114. 000 Russian soldiers have been deployed to the border area in the northeast, east and south of Ukraine, including some 92. 000 infantry soldiers and air and maritime forces.
Last week Washington claimed to have intelligence reports that indicated that the Kremlin was “preparing for a invasion “and on Monday the head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, called to be attentive to the” significant Russian military concentration. ” to use these kinds of military capabilities earlier to carry out aggressive actions against Ukraine, ”Stoltenberg said at a press conference.
- The escalation of tension in Dombás, the front It was between Ukraine and Russia that Moscow has redeployed tanks and troops
- 3 keys that explain the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with his Russian counterpart to express that France was ready “to defend territorial sovereignty of Ukraine “, while Germany also warned about” serious consequences “in the event that Moscow attacks the neighboring country.
Previously, the head of the British Armed Forces, General Nick Carter, told the Times newspaper that the UK should “be ready” for war with Russia.
The Kremlin has not denied the military moves, but has branded suggestions of potential aggression as “incendiary” and has blamed NATO for conducting military exercises in the Black Sea, off the coast of Crimea.
The context
The war of 2014, which led to the Russian annexation of Crimea, has so far left more than 14. 000 dead, according to official figures.
The sides signed an armistice more than a year ago, which led to a notable de-escalation of the conflict .
However, last spring, the Kremlin held military exercises in Crimea and then ordered a wide deployment of heavy military equipment near the Dombás region, the border area in eastern Ukraine. where the conflict started.
Weeks later the troops withdrew, although now they are back.
“This time it is more difficult to explain the movement of tanks and artillery in large quantities from the central regions to the western regions near the borders of Ukraine,” he tells BBC Mundo Zhanna Bezpiatchuk , BBC Kiev correspondent.
According to Bezpiatchuk, who has covered previous Russian military deployments from the ground, in On other occasions there have been exercises and military movements that, in some way, have justified the operations, something that is not very clear now.
A recent report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace indicates that a “Careful review” of the Russian leader’s record regarding Ukraine suggests that “almost all the necessary components and justifications for military intervention are in place or moving towards it.”
“Both short-term and long-term indicators suggest that Kiev and Washington have good roots ones to worry about ”, the text states.
Bezpiatchuk points out that, in addition to the scenario of an invasion“ under the pretext of defending Russian citizens ”who live in the areas controlled by Moscow, also the The Kremlin may want to pressure Europe to exempt the Russian North Stream-2 gas pipeline from European regulations.
On Tuesday, Germany’s energy regulator suspended approval of the controversial gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany for considering that before being certified it must comply with local laws.
What has Russia said?
The Russian government has questioned what it considers to be the “hysteria” of the West and has justified the movement of troops over recent NATO military exercises in the Black Sea.
In an appearance on state television at the weekend, President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was concerned about unannounced drills that inv They were targeting a “powerful naval group” and aircraft carrying strategic nuclear weapons.
In their view, this represented a “serious challenge” for Russia.
NATO. “You have the impression that they will not let us lower our guard. Well, let them know that we are not going to lower our guard, ”he added.
Relations between Moscow and NATO have been strained in recent weeks, after the Kremlin suspended its mission at headquarters of the agency in Brussels on 18 of October, after the alliance expelled eight Russian representatives accused of espionage.
What did Ukraine say?
Bezpiatchuk says that the Ukrainian government let the days go by on this occasion before raise the alarm.
“They took 10 days to confirm the accumulation of troops, “he says.
Several figures of the Ukrainian government, including the president and senior officials, have come out to question Russia about these troop movements.
” It has been the reality of Ukraine for seven years to live with the existential threat from Russia. Perhaps, this rigidity in the acceptance of recent developments could be partly explained by the war fatigue that many feel in Ukraine, ”says Bezpiatchuk.
Tensions in the Dombás area have also increased in recent times, after the 26 October, the Ukrainian Army confirmed that had used a Turkish-made drone, the first time Kiev has used this technology in combat, sparking a protest in Moscow.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov condemned the sale of drones Turks to Ukraine and considered that their acquisition “destabilized” the situation.
Why does it matter what happens in Belarus?
While this is happening on the eastern border of Ukraine, in the north, the crisis of migrants in Belarus is also viewed with alarm.
Last week, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said his country feared that Russia and Belarus were using the situation of migrants as a “smokescreen” to launch an operation in Ukraine.
“We have seen Russian forces in the past on the borders of Ukraine would use some kind of provocative pretext to then invade and basically go ahead with something they were planning all along, ”said Blinken.
But, according to Bezpiatchuk, The dangers do not end there.
And it is that Ukraine has a border of more than 1. 000 km long with Belarus which is basically made up of swamps, forests and fields.
There are no protective barriers on this border and, in fact, it is very easy to enter the territory of Ukraine from Belarus.
This, says the BBC correspondent, makes the country extremely vulnerable if Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko redirects migrants to Ukraine.
“This scenario seems very realistic to many in Ukraine if Poland blocks its border and migrants lose their last opportunity to cross into the European Union. Then they could seek refuge in Ukraine as a place of transit, ”he says.
This would create, in his opinion, a tension on two fronts for the Ukrainian government.
Lukashenko, a faithful Putin ally, recently accused the United States of building NATO military bases in Ukraine using training centers as a pretext. And last September, Russia and Belarus carried out military exercises near Ukraine’s borders.
“Although Belarus does not have any proactive role in the conflict, many believe that at critical moments, it will follow Russia’s line, ”says Bezpiatchuk.
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