Photo: JIM WATSON / AFP via Getty Images. / AFP / Getty Images
Currently it seems that the US real estate market is holding strong , and that has been an exceptional point this 2021. In this sense, there are many factors that have influenced: low mortgage interest rates, linked to a low inventory in real estate for sale; plus the strengthening of the labor market and perhaps increased savings.
These aspects have become strength for many potential buyers, however, housing prices during this 2021 have increased month to month breaking unexpected records , prompting the National Federation of Realtors (NAR) to announce in June that May was the fourth consecutive month that sales, at least of used homes, fell in the United States .
So the constant question is whether in what’s left of 2021 and for the 2022 we must expect a real estate crisis in the country. While sellers are viewing the housing market as a blessing, buyers are viewing it rather with concern .
What is understandable is that the rise in housing prices reflects an extraordinary demand and a supply that has remained low; but low mortgage rates also maintain this constant.
But we cannot speak of one The crisis, rather the real estate market continues to occupy an important part of the country’s economic recovery. We can speak of a “swoosh” phenomenon in which there is an initial impact of closing and then comes a gradual recovery while the economy reopens.
On the one hand, we have that in the present the generation of Millennials are approaching home buying age, which has produced a residential housing boom. This, plus rising construction costs and real estate agents buying homes for beginners, has resulted in the housing supply at its lowest level since the decade of the years 70.
Although, on the other hand, the demand for housing in the suburbs with fewer inhabitants increases. Currently, the median price of homes nationwide is $ 385, 000 dollars, a 10. 3% more than the same period in 2020. What It leads us to believe that it is possible that lower and more competitive prices should be proposed for the future.
While the annual rate of house prices has decreased for the third consecutive time in 2021 , in June it was from 15. 7% the annual rate, compared to May which was 15.2%. But even though this average price growth is receding, that does not represent a market crash but rather a change in the inventory mix.
In July of this year, 60,. 305, meaning 305,000 homes less than the previous year in the same period. But not everything seems so fatalistic, in the long term it seems that the market may be better. The data analyst company CoreLogic predicts that the increase in prices will slow down in the next 12 months, as demand moderates and the inventory of homes for sale increases.
The future post-pandemic of the real estate market could be defined in the coming months, At the moment it is expected that if sales continue to drive recent growth, despite increased inventory, there should be more confidence from builders and that they understand that high demand is not a long-term thing.
But it is very possible a price increase by 3.2% between June of 2021 and June 2022 , also CoreLogic data analysts forecast disparity in price growth. However, this goes by area, in markets such as Houston affected by the collapse of the oil industry and by hurricanes, prices are expected to fall by 0.9%
What is evident is that there is a boost in confidence in buyers, the sale of used homes has had a boost that is not I saw from 2006, and in all this there is It should be noted that the economy is still expected to grow 6.8% this 2021.
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