Why the Latino vote is key for Gavin Newsom to retain the California governorship

The call to The polls could come as early as October, which is causing efforts by candidates to replace Newsom and the governor himself to step on the gas to ensure voter support.

“Both Newsom and his opponents will have to campaign to win the Latino vote,” warns Miguel Tinker-Salas, Professor of History and Latino Studies at Pomona College.

Add that Democrats cannot give for sitting that the Latino vote is a bloc that will support the current governor, so “they must take them into account more than ever.”

With 7.9 million eligible Latino voters, California is the state with the most Hispanic voters houses in the United States , which represents approximately a quarter of the entire Latino electorate in the nation, according to data from the Pew Center in 2020.

At the moment Latinos represent the 30% of California voters, a sizeable figure when it comes to tipping the scales.

Newsom won the election in 2018 by 7, 719, 719 votes (61% ) against Republican John Cox who managed to obtain 4, 742, 825 votes (38.1 %).

Cox is one of the candidates who They aspire to remove Newsom and stay with the governorship, as well as former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner.

Republican strategist Luis Alvarado warns that Newsom has a double challenge with Latinos, since in addition to getting them to support him, he has to make sure they go to the polls.

“It is neither a process nor similar to 2020 nor is it similar to 2018, when the government of Donald Trump pushed many to go out and vote, including Latino voters, ”says Alvarado.

A UC Berkeley survey last February found that 43% of the state’s Latino residents favor They were to keep the Democrat in office for that date. However, 29% are undecided on the subject and 28% would support his removal.

Tinker-Salas points out that the election will also be a qualification on the work of the governor in the coronavirus pandemic -which punished the Latinos more than any other community in California-, the economic recovery and the management of the drought, which threatens to deepen and hit the state hard.

“They also have to take the time to explain that this process is not a normal election, and that it needs the support of Latinos,” says the professor.

This special process has two parts when it comes to voters: First they will be asked if they want to remove Newsom. At least 54% of voters They will have to approve the removal of the Democrat from office for the revocation to be successful.

Second, voters will be asked to elect a replacement for Newsom from a list of candidates.

Alvarado stresses that the strategy of the Democratic Party will also impact this impeachment process and if other Democrats decide to launch their candidacy, including some Hispanics who have tried to go for the position as the former mayor of Los Angeles Antonio Villaraigosa.

“It is a double play because other figures may want to make sure that to be on the list of candidates in case the impeachment progresses, although I don’t really see anyone with a chance ”, assesses the strategist when comparing this process with the one that achieved the dismissal of Governor Gray Davis in 2003.

For his part, Tinker-Salas warns that Republicans do not currently have a person with the charisma of Arnold Schwarzenegger, who won that special election.

“California has changed a lot, and that is due to Hispanics. This is a litmus test for candidates to closely observe the problems of the Latino community, and how important they are to the state, ”concludes the professor.

By Ana Milena Varón