Morena loses the majority: AMLO's party wins, but cedes power in the legislative elections in Mexico, according to preliminary results

The party of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is emerging as the winner of the intermediate legislative elections this Sunday in Mexico but loses the absolute majority that it enjoyed until now.

According to the preliminary results of the National Electoral Institute (INE), the National Regeneration Movement Party ( Brunette ) would get between 190 Y 203 deputies. Until now, I had 256 of the 500 that make up the Chamber of Deputies.

However, as a whole, the parties that support AMLO would maintain the absolute majority, since the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM) would achieve between 40 Y 48 deputies and the Labor Party between 35 Y 41. This would allow them to add between 265 Y 277 seats.

If these trends are confirmed, Morena would be losing around a 20% of its legislators and will depend more on its allies to carry out its initiatives in Congress.

Regarding the opposition coalition, The National Action Party (PAN) regained its presence and would achieve between 117 Y 117 deputies, against the 77 that I had so far. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) would achieve between 75 Y 75 seats, while the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) would reach between 12 Y 20.

Loss of qualified majority

The figures offered by the INE correspond to a procedure known as “quick count”, by means of which electoral results are usually estimated from the analysis of a representative sample of the votes.

If the final results ratify this trend, AMLO’s coalition would no longer enjoy a qualified majority (two-thirds of the Chamber) necessary to promote some of the major reforms envisaged in its project called as Fourth Transformation (Q4), which includes constitutional changes.

For this type of measures 334 deputies but the ruling alliance would add a maximum of 292, based on quick count.

This situation would allow the ruling party to make changes in laws and approve budgets or initiatives, but not those of constitutional rank that AMLO wishes to consolidate his changes.

Al At the same time, the opposition coalition parties itora would get between 181 Y 213 seats, a enough to form a minority that would allow them to prevent the ruling party from approving important reforms without dialogue and negotiation with them.

Although he did not participate as a candidate, these elections were seen by many as a thermometer about supporting López Obrador and his government program. From that point of view, the ruling party achieves a victory with a bittersweet flavor.

This Sunday has been the largest election in the history of Mexico, because in addition to the 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, the governors of 15 of the 32 states and ones 20 . local charges.

Some were invited to participate millions of voters and, According to the data provided by the INE, participation was between 51. 7 % Y 52.5%.

The voting was preceded by one of the most violent electoral campaigns in memory, in which at least 36 candidates were killed.

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