After months of good news, including the drop in covid cases – 19 and a highly successful vaccination campaign, the tone in the UK has changed.
The total relaxation of restrictions that England plans for June is in danger, and there is around the grim possibility that greater pressure is looming on the National Health System (NHS
The obstacle to reopening plans is the variant of coronavirus B.1. 617.two, which was first detected in India and has spread throughout the world.
Concerns have been on the rise over the last week and for the first Instead, scientists advising the UK government now believe that this variant will spread more easily.
The expectation is that the variant will outperform to which arose in Kent , known as the British variant, and at some point will “dominate” cases in the UK.
We are in a race between the virus and the vaccine. Loosening of restrictions scheduled for Monday and a more transmissible variant means the virus will move even faster.
However, there is still a large uncertainty about exactly how fast variant B.1 is spreading. 617. 2.
“That It is a key question for which we still do not have the answer , “said Professor Chris Whitty, chief medical adviser to the British government.
If it’s just a little bit faster or that the Kent variant, which still accounts for the overwhelming majority of cases in the UK, then not much to worry about.
However, the government’s Emergency Scientific Advisory Group ( SAGE says there is a “realistic chance” that a 50% faster.
That’s a lot.
Some estimates from India indicate that it could be up to 60% faster, but these calculations are based on genetic sequences of viral samples, and it is unclear how representative they are of the big picture.
SAGE estimates that the problems would actually start with a variant that was a 40% more transmissible, as it would “lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalizations ” and put pressure on the NHS.
Uncertainty
The uncertainty is reminiscent of last year, when the variant was first detected in Kent and questions were raised about the approach to controlling the virus.
Still, it is important to remember that we are not in the same situation as last year.
More of 19 Millions of people, one third of the UK adult population, have received both doses of the vaccine.
Others 17 millions have received the first dose. Vaccines weaken, if not eliminate, the link between infection and severe disease.
And overall cases are much lower, too. The Office for National Statistics estimates that less than 50, 000 people currently have the virus. The number was 1. 25 million at the beginning of the year.
Currently there are only about 1, 000 people hospitalized for COVID – 17.
The concern is that, although vaccines work very well, do not are perfect and not all vulnerable people have been vaccinated.
So, if there were another wave of product cases of the combination of relaxation of the measures and a new variant, then a worrying number of people could still end up in the hospital.
It should be noted that these predictions do not they are a crystal ball.
Previous mathematical models had predicted a wave in the summer, but suddenly became much more optimistic once it became clear that people vaccinated had less probabili possibilities of spreading the virus.
‘Difficult decisions’
The plans to reopen are underway, but the vaccination campaign is being modified to vaccinate more quickly the most vulnerable.
The bet is that if the variance is going to spell trouble, there will be time to spot warning signs , such as an increase in hospital admissions, and then act.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that if the Indian variant proves to be “significantly more transmissible” than others, then the Kingdom is likely United faced “some tough decisions.”
In any case, the problem posed by the most transmissible variants is much greater in countries that have not had successful vaccination programs, where they could cause a lot of damage.
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