Police and transportation stations burned. Roads cut for days. Product shortages. An unknown number of dead and missing. A state of uncertainty and acute nervousness.
Colombia has lived through many delicate moments throughout its traumatic history, but now seems to be traveling an unknown path in at least three different areas: social protest, l a economy and representation politics.
There were moments in the past that broke history in two such as the wave of violence that preceded the signing of the Constitution of 1991 or the riots of 1948 after the assassination of candidate Jorge Eliécer Gaitán, which gave rise to the guerrillas.
The outcome of the crisis current is unknown and that is why it is difficult to enter into comparisons on its historical relevance.
What seems evident, according to the experts consulted by BBC Mundo, is that the a current is an unprecedented situation . And that much is explained because the peace process with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in 2016 opened a pandora’s box of lawsuits and problems previously prohibitive on account of the war.
“I have 74 years and I tell you that I never saw an elite politics so incapable of reaching resolutions “, says historian Carlos Caballero Argáez.
The government of Iván Duque has launched a new negotiation table to reduce tension and seek consensual solutions. It’s what he did in November of 2019, when the protests were more peaceful and punctual and the situation in the country less serious.
Today the president has challenges where he look: in your party, in the streets, within the armed forces, in fiscal matters and in politics.
Within exactly one year Colombia will be holding general and presidential elections: all development at this time has an electoral key.
While violence continues to be the main concern of Colombians, BBC Mundo spoke with several experts to carry out a distance exercise that allows us to understand what is happening.
A sustained stoppage
Y broad
A first new element of this crisis is the dimension of social protest.
“The coverage and sustainability have been unprecedented ”, says Mauricio Archila, an expert in social movements.
The protests this time reached small and medium municipalities. They were summoned by young people, but have the support of older adults and minority populations. They have paralyzed production, supply and transport in unexpected corners.
“ This strike has reached places where protests were not used before and It has been maintained for several days without giving up ”, adds Archila.
And he concludes: “I am very skeptical of the comparisons, and I don’t want to go into talking about the Bogotazo (1948) or the civic strike of 1977 , but it is true that this strike has produced a worker-peasant-indigenous alliance that such It has never been so balanced. ”
In effect, the National Strike is a heterogeneous movement plagued by contradictions and internal conflicts. Its leader is not clear and within it there are representations of almost all sectors. Its future depends on how it manages to overcome this diversity.
“But what is evident is that the force of the strike surprised the entire political class,” says Daniel Hawkins, researcher at the National Trade Union School .
“In the middle of the third and strongest wave of contagion and after the order of the Cundinamarca court that prohibited crowds, politicians never believed that people were going to the streets en masse ”, Says Hawkins.
The protests have already achieved two unexpected effects in a country where social mobilization, which was sporadic and labeled “subversive”, rarely had political consequences : the withdrawal of the tax reform and the fall of the min istro de Hacienda , Alberto Carrasquilla.
Lo What is difficult to predict is whether this movement, which was originally fresh and novel, will end in a situation that does have precedents in Colombia: that of overwhelming violence.
A destabilized economy
The Colombian economy has been the most stable in Latin America for decades: the that had fewer recessions in the 20th century, the one that did not present hyperinflation and the one that did not default on its debt commitments in 80 years.
But now the situation is different.
“Few times – if not ever – had I seen the country in a situation as difficult as the one we are experiencing today , “wrote the prestigious economist and former minister Mauricio Cárdenas in his column.
And Caballero Argáez adds: “The last time the country’s fiscal responsibility was questioned was during the Latin American debt crisis (early 80), but there Colombia managed to refinance the debt and a monitoring agreement with the IMF that allowed us to be the only Latin American country that did not go into recession or have to restructure debt. ”
Today Colombian bonds are classified as “junk” in international markets, the peso is reaching devaluation records and for the first time in years, the country’s debt payment and issuance capacity is questioned.
“Colombia has a (fiscal) collection problem every time there is a crisis , because their collection in normal times has always been low “, says political scientist Mónica Pachón.
” But they had always been able to solve that with crisis tax reforms with temporary taxes that managed to get us out of the problem. ”
“ The difference now is that a reform has never generated such a level of opposition, much less without entering Congress, and its fall put us in an uncomfortable place, ”explains the dean of Political Science of the Universidad del Rosario.
Duque has said that his priority is to achieve reform as soon as possible. It can be approved in Congress. Economists doubt that a resolution will not be achieved that will probably collect less taxes, but at least get the country out of the crisis.
However, the famous neoliberal stability model and orthodox Colombia showed cracks for the first time in its history.
A radicalized politics
As well as stable economically, Colombia has been a country without many ups and downs politically: except for a small period in the years has remained intact.
Although violence has not stopped being a problem over the years 50, the bipartisanship between liberals and conservatives (who came to alternate in power by agreement) allowed the generation of idea that democratic institutions were not in danger.
Colombia was always considered, at least abroad, as a stable democracy.
But in this crisis the political class has been unable to reach resolutions, analysts point out . Duque called on the military to control the situation (although several mayors objected); Some even consider coup scenarios and the leader in the polls for the elections of is a leftist candidate who was active in the guerrillas, Gustavo Petro.
“The violence of the protests, which is also followed by people from their networks without entering to understand or deepen, makes politics more polarized and more ideological , with the consequence that reaching solutions is much more difficult ”, explains Pachón.
One of the effects of the peace process of 1991 was the opposition statute, a mechanism that gives guarantees to critics of the Executive, but also increases its capacity to hinder his initiatives.
“You add to that that Duque is a weak president even within his party and you have the breeding ground of misfortune “, Says Pachón.
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In Colombia, as in all of Latin America, there has always been a crisis of political representation, but perhaps never before has the population’s distrust of the political class.
“What we are seeing is a generalized and perhaps irremediable discontent, it is almost a pre-revolutionary situation,” says Caballero.
The consequences can be many: since the resignation of the president, unprecedented in Colombia since the years 50 , until the election of a candidate, from the left or the right, who breaks with the until now stable democratic institutions of the country.
“This is solved with a candidate that can generate trust between the different populations at the same time that can include the is blishment political ”, says Pachón.
“But I’m afraid that, now, is further than ever.”
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