The development of events has been impossible to ignore: thousands of Russian troops were deployed near the border with Ukraine, at a time when a group of American warships were supposedly heading to the Black Sea and the Ministry of Russia’s Foreign Relations warned them to stay away “for their own good.”
As hostile rhetoric and military movements in Ukraine have intensified, Western politicians have begun to fear an invasion open and urge Russian President Vladimir Putin to “reduce the escalation.”
Russia has refused: the Defense Ministry insisted this week that its movements were in response to the “threatening exercises ”From NATO in Europe.
But then Putin got a phone call from the White House.
“ Biden blinked first ”
“In Putin’s risky game, Biden blinked first,” argues journalist Konstantin Eggert on purpose to the US president’s call to the Kremlin, in which he proposed to meet with Putin “in the coming months.”
This happened just a few weeks after the US president said in an interview that the leader of Russia was “ a murderer “.
The passage of President Biden is now a matter of debate Maybe he did it to prevent a disaster or maybe it was a wrong concession. The truth is that in the run-up to a summit, a call like this makes the risk of major Russian military action vanish.
“It would really be unworthy of a politician : it would be a slap in the face of Biden, “Eggert tells the BBC.
” But the fact that it was Biden who suggested that meeting gives Putin the advantage. ”
Determined to send signals, instead of soldiers
Certainly Russian state television thinks so.
Both the presenters and Guests on political programs have been praising Moscow’s show of force , assuring that their country resisted hostility from the US and NATO .
One commenter even suggested that “her nerves hadfailed President Biden. ”
Senator Konstantin Kosachev was widely quoted as arguing that Washington had realized that it was “ impossible to achieve military superiority over Russia” and that the two countries needed to return to the dialogue.
Russia’s recent and ostentatious troop movement always seemed rhetorical on the part of a country that renounced its desire to like him and now he wants the West to fear him.
When Vladimir Putin sent troops and equipment to eastern Ukraine seven years ago, he did so with secret operations that until to this day he still denies having carried out.
But this time, Russia seems more determined to send signals than to deploy soldiers.
The “children playing with matches “from Kiev
” My opinion is that they are trying to dissuade, “says Andrei Kortunov, director of the Council of International Affairs of Russia.
The expert points to recent reinforcements from Kiev in eastern Ukraine and argues that Russia’s actions are to prevent any move with the intention of retaking areas controlled by Russian-backed militants.
A senior Kremlin official warned that such military action would be “ the beginning of the end of Ukraine “, whose government consisted of children “playing with matches.”
Currently, Russia has an excuse to intervene: around half a million people in the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk, in eastern Ukraine, have received Russian passports since the outbreak. on the fights in 2014.
“I think it would be difficult for the Kremlin not to come to the rescue of these ‘republics’, if they faced the threat of a great defeat,” he explains Kortunov, arguing that now the Ukrainian army is significantly better equipped and trained thanks to the support of the US and Europe.
But he still doubts that Vladimir Putin is planning an intervention.
“I don’t see anything that the Kremlin can gain from a direct military engagement in the Ukraine crisis. I think that Russian policy is more focused on maintaining the status quo and assuming that Ukraine will implode from its growing problems and the fatigue (caused by) Ukraine in the West ” Kortunov continues.
A message to Washington
The other audience for Moscow’s maneuvers is further away.
For the US there is a not-so-veiled warning that Russia still believes that the fate of its neighbor is its business and is particularly opposed to Ukraine’s goal, reiterated this week, to unite to NATO .
But some detect another objective: to try to avoid the new and harsh Biden administration sanctions in retaliation for Russia’s election meddling, hacking attacks, etc. ca and more.
“Russia is trying to raise the bar and show that it can bring costs to those who try to inflict costs on Russia, even if that is reckless and can result in more severe sanctions “, explains foreign policy analyst Mikhail Troitskiy.
” I think this is the logic behind this escalation, which is dangerous because at some point it could get out of control, ”he adds.
A much bloodier operation
Despite new talks on Russian state television about Ukrainian “fascists”, there is little sense that an all-out war is popular with Russians, who find themselves dealing with covid – 19, in addition to sanctions and the impact caused by low oil prices.
Andrei Kortunov believes that the “mobilization potential” of foreign policy adventures is now “almost exhausted”, with people more worrying you give for your own problems than in 2014, when there was a more comfortable context.
Russia’s war in 2008 with Georgia is a testament to how quickly such a confrontation can escalate and there is always the caveat that no one believed that Vladimir Putin dared to annex Crimea.
But defending Dombás would probably be a much more bloody and dangerous operation .
Putin’s intentions may become clearer next week, when he delivers his annual “State of the Nation” speech, a podium that often used to speak against the West.
But Joe Biden’s call may have given him the opportunity d to withdraw from this particular fight.
Turkey now says the United States has canceled Biden’s request for two warships to pass through the Bosphorus.
“I think Putin attracted attention, put himself in the focus not only of Europe but of the US administration,” says Konstantin Eggert. “He managed to scare them and he likes to do that.”
Mikhail Troitskiy agrees.
“If Russia does not see significant US sanctions that affect its vital interests, it could consider withdrawing troops from the border,” he estimates.
“Another way to de-escalate things is for them to reach a climax, as happened in the missile crisis in Cuba. But that would be very undesirable “.